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  1. #4091
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Quite right - with 20/20 hindsight it was quite stupid not to sell, and my ability to forecast our now common hindsight was as bad as everybody elses. TA on this one has humbled a lot of people other than the one who keeps posting glowing remarks on the company's prospects

    Problem is - past performance is no indicator for the future ... so - where do you recon the SP will be in 2 years from now? Is the further down risk larger than the upside opportunities? A lot depends upon where the economy goes...car companies are cyclical...but why risk it with TA clearly showing no reason to be invested ?

    I think the sales proposition for the NZ used vehicle market will midterm improve - Who will want to buy now a new car with combustion engine if they can have a new cheap electric car in a decade from now and their now new combusty would be unsaleable by then? God used car is at the moment the way to go until we see how the electric car market plays out.What on earth makes you think new electric cars will be cheap in 10 years time ?

    Open question is - what proportion of this marketshare will Turners be able to take? If they play their cards well they should be quite well positioned ...
    Perhaps the real question is will the market dominance of Trade Me continue to grow and how much market share will it take from traditional car dealers ?

    LOL Couta1 - too funny.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-01-2019 at 10:21 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #4092
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    What on earth makes you think new electric cars will be cheap in 10 years time ?

    Electrical vehicles are cheaper to produce (if produced in comparable volumes to vehicles with combustion engine), much cheaper to drive (cost of fuel) and much cheaper to maintain. Only reason for them to be still more expensive are still low volumes and battery costs - and battery cost come down every year.

    Obviously - I don't know exactly when the electric car will be cheaper than a comparable ride on the combustion engine, but if history is a guide - it took roughly 20 years for in commercial quantities produced vehicles with combustion engine to replace horse and cart - and (in volumes produced) electrical vehicles are already around for two decades ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #4093
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Quite right - with 20/20 hindsight it was quite stupid not to sell, and my ability to forecast our now common hindsight was as bad as everybody elses.

    Problem is - past performance is no indicator for the future ... so - where do you recon the SP will be in 2 years from now? Is the further down risk larger than the upside opportunities?

    I think the sales proposition for the NZ used vehicle market will midterm improve - Who will want to buy now a new car with combustion engine if they can have a new cheap electric car in a decade from now and their now new combusty would be unsaleable by then? God used car is at the moment the way to go until we see how the electric car market plays out.

    Open question is - what proportion of this marketshare will Turners be able to take? If they play their cards well they should be quite well positioned ...
    All good stuff BP but you don’t mention execution risk (and that’s assuming strategy is robust)

    Heck you have to think something is really wrong sonewhere - either the much touted ‘strategy’ is irrelevant or management (execution) is abysmal

    Look at half performance across the business. Operating Profit by business -

    - Automotive Retail DOWN 9%
    - Finance DOWN 2%
    - Collections DOWN 10%
    - Insurance UP 14% plus property gain

    And then they signal second half could be worse ...bloody heck

    And the delusional Board thinks it share price should be north of $3

    Company performance not reconciling with words / hype etc = declining share price

    That’s how I see it anyway
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #4094
    percy
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    [QUOTE=Beagle;745013]Perhaps the real question is will the market dominance of Trade Me continue to grow and how much market share will it take from traditional car dealers ?

    Perhaps the answer is the tradional car dealers are the major beneficiaries of Trade Me.
    Just another chanel Turners use to grow their market share.
    Last edited by percy; 24-01-2019 at 11:41 AM.

  5. #4095
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Electrical vehicles are cheaper to produce (if produced in comparable volumes to vehicles with combustion engine), much cheaper to drive (cost of fuel) and much cheaper to maintain. Only reason for them to be still more expensive are still low volumes and battery costs - and battery cost come down every year.

    Obviously - I don't know exactly when the electric car will be cheaper than a comparable ride on the combustion engine, but if history is a guide - it took roughly 20 years for in commercial quantities produced vehicles with combustion engine to replace horse and cart - and (in volumes produced) electrical vehicles are already around for two decades ...
    Head of the giant Volkswagen group who currently produce EV's disagrees with you saying EV's will probably always be more expensive https://www.autocar.co.nz/autocar-ne...ccording-to-vw
    and Hyundai who also currently produce a number of EV's also disagrees https://insideevs.com/hyundai-exec-t...ining-in-2020/

    One thing I will agree with you on Percy is this. Turners is a quick and easy place to sell your vehicle, (no need to trade it in with a dealer as part of a dealer to dealer exchange), for those that choose to buy on Trade Me. Now that Trade Me has partnered with MTF to provide finance and Turners is such an easy place to sell one's old vehicle it is very easy to cut out the traditional dealer model so the market is wide open to low cost operators and private sellers.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-01-2019 at 01:18 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #4096
    percy
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    One thing I will agree with you on Percy is this. Turners is a quick and easy place to sell your vehicle, (no need to trade it in with a dealer as part of a dealer to dealer exchange), for those that choose to buy on Trade Me. Now that Trade Me has partnered with MTF to provide finance and Turners is such an easy place to sell one's old vehicle it is very easy to cut out the traditional dealer model so the market is wide open to low cost operators and private sellers.[/QUOTE]

    Yes selling their vehicle to Turners is proving very quick and easy for a great number of people and helps to account for Turners statement they are sourcing more cars in NZ.
    Even easier is selling your car to Turners and buying your replacement car from them,using their helpful staff, who will arrange finance and insurance as well.
    Private sellers/backyard dealers.Reminds me when I worked at Hutchinson Motors over 50 years ago, the best car dealers were a couple of guys who worked in the parts dept.We had a morning and an evening paper in those days.Every Saturday evening's paper one would advertise a Ford Anglia for sale.Very few details.This was because he relied on buying one to sell on Saturday morning.!!..And he often brought and sold two.!!...lol.
    Last edited by percy; 24-01-2019 at 02:17 PM.

  7. #4097
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    One thing I will agree with you on Percy is this. Turners is a quick and easy place to sell your vehicle, (no need to trade it in with a dealer as part of a dealer to dealer exchange), for those that choose to buy on Trade Me. Now that Trade Me has partnered with MTF to provide finance and Turners is such an easy place to sell one's old vehicle it is very easy to cut out the traditional dealer model so the market is wide open to low cost operators and private sellers.
    Yes selling their vehicle to Turners is proving very quick and easy for a great number of people and helps to account for Turners statement they are sourcing more cars in NZ.
    Even easier is selling your car to Turners and buying your replacement car from them,using their helpful staff, who will arrange finance and insurance as well.
    Private sellers/backyard dealers.Reminds me when I worked at Hutchinson Motors over 50 years ago, the best car dealers were a couple of guys who worked in the parts dept.We had a morning and an evening paper in those days.Every Saturday evening's paper one would advertise a Ford Anglia for sale.Very few details.This was because he relied on buying one to sell on Saturday morning.!!..And he often brought and sold two.!!...lol.[/QUOTE]

    Yeh some of those car dealers were wizzes, reminds me of the time I was selling a car, had it in the Herald for a while when the phone went some 10 days after my last add and would you believe a dealer wanted to buy it, I thought I as lucky until I caught on , they went through the cars for sale adds only after they were 10 days old, needless to say we didn't do a deal at his price.

  8. #4098
    percy
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    I bet the dealer scored many giveaways.!!!
    Another story from Hutchinson Motors.
    The sales manager told me Hutchinson Motors had so many Ford Prefects to sell in 1951 or 52 he learnt a good trick.Ring clients on the waiting list and tell them they had "a window of opportunity" to buy a new Prefect,either a blue one or a red one,but they had to let him know before 10am tomorrow morning.
    They had Prefects of every colour.
    Sold all the Prefects in record time.
    Too many choices, and too long a time to decide,meant to many "I will think about" its.

    ps.
    Worked for me a good few years later when I went selling Lyttelton calendars business to business in Lyttelton.
    Offer them a choice of two and often they brought both,offer a choice of three or more, confussed them, and they brought none.!!
    Last edited by percy; 24-01-2019 at 03:46 PM.

  9. #4099
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Talking of car dealers making up stories did you hear about that car dealer who says they are going to improve
    Gra��t Baker ��o����e��ted: ��The Board believes the purchase of company shares, which are priced significantly below their intrinsic value, is an appropriate use of capital and will be of benefit to shareholders. We are confident in the long term prospects for solid and improving group earnings resulting in increasing balance sheet strength. This positive outlook supports the Share Buyback initiative��
    I am in total agreement with the board.

    ps.I think the board is made up more of finance/insurance/accountant/ people.No ex car dealers.[unfortunately]

    pps.Keep an eye out for the following book when you are next at the dump:"Billiionaire;The Life and Times of Sir James Goldsmith".May alter your time frame for a good business model producing results.Sir James thought in years, rather than days and weeks [much like Warren Buffett] .The chapter on Cavendish Foods in particular.
    Last edited by percy; 24-01-2019 at 04:36 PM.

  10. #4100
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Head of the giant Volkswagen group who currently produce EV's disagrees with you saying EV's will probably always be more expensive https://www.autocar.co.nz/autocar-ne...ccording-to-vw
    and Hyundai who also currently produce a number of EV's also disagrees https://insideevs.com/hyundai-exec-t...ining-in-2020/

    One thing I will agree with you on Percy is this. Turners is a quick and easy place to sell your vehicle, (no need to trade it in with a dealer as part of a dealer to dealer exchange), for those that choose to buy on Trade Me. Now that Trade Me has partnered with MTF to provide finance and Turners is such an easy place to sell one's old vehicle it is very easy to cut out the traditional dealer model so the market is wide open to low cost operators and private sellers.
    Actually - both of them might have a vested interest to "manage expectations" to prevent people from believing that EV's might soon be cheaper. Both sell nearly exclusively cars with combustion engines which will fast loose value if & when EV's are cheaper.

    Predicting what battery prices will do after 2020 is like predicting the 2021 summer - or forecasting the oil price in three years from now. While increased demand might be one fact pushing prices up - nobody knows what the supply side will do. Typically increased demand means increased supply. As well - batteries are particularly suitable for recycling ... i.e. we need to mine all these amazing elements only once and can use them again and again.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 24-01-2019 at 03:38 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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