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  1. #6261
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Seems Turners have scraped through F20 with NPBT of about $28m ...March year end so no real virus impacts.

    Not that good in view of going gangbusters for most of the year. If a $5.6m decline (15%) in profits is the result of going gangbusters I wonder what a not so good year would look like.

    Hard to see them beating $28m in F21....wonder how bad it will be.

    Has percy already worked that out and wisely exited Turners.

    Must have been a hard decision...like losing a family member but heck money is money and you dont want to risk losing it.

    My guess for F21 is $$15m to $20m npbt ....pity we have to wait until mid June before we get any indication.
    Last edited by winner69; 17-05-2020 at 02:15 PM.

  2. #6262
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Always put a date and time your offer expires.
    Focuses the sellers attention.


    Disc.I no longer hold in NZ any shares in the following sectors;Finance [including Banks],Property, Retail [including selling vehicles] , Retirement Villages,or Tourism.
    I do hold shares in PGW which I classify as Rural Services,not a retailer.
    Hmmm. I had noticed it has been unusually peaceful in this and the Heartland thread
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-05-2020 at 06:39 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #6263
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hmmm. I had noticed it has been unusually peaceful in this and the Heartland thread
    Will remain that way,as I can not foresee the future.
    All a new experience to me.
    I was reading Warren Buffett was feeling the same way,so I am not alone..lol.
    I have always tried to invest in companies I understand.At present time there is a great deal I do not understand.
    Last edited by percy; 17-05-2020 at 07:00 PM.

  4. #6264
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Historically banks and finance companies (and banks masquerading as finance companies) have not done at all well in a deep recession, which is why I sold HGH some time back and Turners even earlier as in my view they haven't been performing up to my expectations.

    This has played out right around the world with banks and finance companies typically seeing a substantial fall in their market value which I am sure you would have noticed with Australian bank shares. So far this is following an expected and rational pattern and is something that is understandable.

    Where I get lost, (and I am sure I am not the only one), is the way the market has bounced back from its 23 March low. Plenty of so called experts on CNBC are trying to explain this that the share market typically bottoms about 7-9 months before the economy bottom's out. The market seems to be pricing in a vacine for Covid 19 by around about the end of 2020 or very early 2021. Who says the economy bottom's out in late 2020 or early 2021...personally I think this is quite unlikely and the economic effects cause a deep and protracted recession at best. The other outcome is another great depression.

    I know the best and brightest minds in that field from all around the world are working on a vaccine but what if it doesn't happen until much later than what the market is expecting ? What if it doesn't happen at all ? What are the downstream effects of the record amounts of quantitative easing going to be ?

    So many unknowns...
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-05-2020 at 08:59 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #6265
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    https://ebbettholden.co.nz/Ebbett-Ho...hoC5d4QAvD_BwE

    Looks like Ebbett has done an ex-rental & ex-lease deal - 2019 low mileage Holdens at huge discounts.

    This is only the beginning imo.

  6. #6266
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    https://ebbettholden.co.nz/Ebbett-Ho...hoC5d4QAvD_BwE

    Looks like Ebbett has done an ex-rental & ex-lease deal - 2019 low mileage Holdens at huge discounts.

    This is only the beginning imo.
    None of these deals are for the best selling Holden, the one that makes up 50% of Holden sales, the Colorado ute. So the overall Holden decline might not be as dire as it seems from this sale.

    Poor Beagle. Look at the price of the Calais Liftback, just $34k: An 18 grand hit on the supposed new price of $52k. That is a reduction, after just one year of 34%! It isn't looking good for a residual of 40% after three years. On second thoughts poor me. As a Heartland shareholder I will be funding the shortfall in the guaranteed minimum price in three years time when these finance deals on Holdens go sour. I probably won't have to wait three years either. Heartland will need to provision for this in advance. My only hopes is that when these Holdens are on sold, most end up going througjh the Turners Auctions so that I can clip the ticket!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 26-05-2020 at 11:51 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  7. #6267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    https://ebbettholden.co.nz/Ebbett-Ho...hoC5d4QAvD_BwE

    Looks like Ebbett has done an ex-rental & ex-lease deal - 2019 low mileage Holdens at huge discounts.

    This is only the beginning imo.
    Talked to a Holden dealer in early March. Holden were doing some deals 20-25% off their standard list price to clear their stock. Said had really good sales on them (well at that stage!).

  8. #6268
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    None of these deals are for the best selling Holden, the one that makes up 50% of Holden sales, the Colorado ute. So the overall Holden decline might not be as dire as it seems from this sale.

    Poor Beagle. Look at the price of the Calais Liftback, just $34k: An 18 grand hit on the supposed new price of $52k. That is a reduction, after just one year of 34%! It isn't looking good for a residual of 40% after three years. On second thoughts poor me. As a Heartland shareholder I will be funding the shortfall in the guaranteed minimum price in three years time when these finance deals on Holdens go sour. I probably won't have to wait three years either. Heartland will need to provision for this in advance. My only hopes is that when these Holdens are on sold, most end up going througjh the Turners Auctions so that I can clip the ticket!

    SNOOPY
    Don't feel sorry for me mate, I have the Calais V which is a very different vehicle to the standard Calais. Normal Calais is a 2 litre engine (mine is 3.6 liter V6) and my upmarket model comes with a vast array of high end specification that's missing on the much lower spec model, (e.g. heads-up display, adaptive cruise control, heated, ventilated and massaging seats, 360 degree surround view camera, adaptive matrix LED headlights, sunroof and so on). In addition the Calais V is an all wheel drive whereas the Calais is front wheel drive. Calais is a nice car, Calais V is a MUCH nicer and vastly better equipped and faster car.

    I checked and there are only 2 Calais V's on trade me, both in colours I don't like. A white and a black one. The white one is $44K and is 2018 and the black one is just on $50K, (2019) Mine is in a colour I chose (metallic red) and has not depreciated much from the $54K I paid 15 months ago.

    In terms of depreciation most of the depreciation models I have seen that model out a 50% residual suggest a 30% hit in the first year is common, followed by two years at 10% each. Its not logical that it works that way but that sort of pattern is the norm. I think the reason for this is that nobody pays full retail so the first year suggested hit of 30% from full retail is illusionary and is probably only really 15-20% from what the average customer actually pays.
    Last edited by Beagle; 26-05-2020 at 12:15 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #6269
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    https://www.andrewsimms.co.nz/rentalfleetsellout

    Ex-rentals on specials - again, heavily discounted.

    And this is before the big boys start - Toyota, Ford & Hyundai.

  10. #6270
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    https://www.andrewsimms.co.nz/rentalfleetsellout

    Ex-rentals on specials - again, heavily discounted.

    And this is before the big boys start - Toyota, Ford & Hyundai.
    Speaking of which :

    https://www.hyundai.co.nz/5-day-flash-sale

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