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  1. #3831
    percy
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    Big volume.
    I hope the share buy back managed to get a few.

  2. #3832
    Guru
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Jeepers. the tree is being give a right old shaking. All sorts exiting. Whose shorting TRA?
    I don't think there is any shorting going on to to be fair. That does not really happen in NZ due to different rules etc.

  3. #3833
    Following the momo
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Big volume.
    I hope the share buy back managed to get a few.
    Must be either Salt or Milford selling, wonder who is on the other side?

  4. #3834
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    It's rather sad that while some think Turners (and their brokers) are really clever in buying so many really cheap share in the buyback they tend to overlook that collectively shareholders are now $29 million less wealthy than they were just over a week ago


    All because a delusional Board think the shares are worth north of $3 ...even brokers don't think that now.
    Last edited by winner69; 06-12-2018 at 08:08 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #3835
    Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    I have been watching this thread with interest as I was lucky enough to bail around $3.10. I am wondering why you have watched the sp go down and down and down Couta and not bailed sooner?
    I'm not convinced this is a stock that needs to be bailed on at this point in time, best to let the dust settle and the games to play out. If or when the times comes to bail i wouldn't give it a second thought, big holdings and big losses sometimes go hand in hand and is something you have to accept and move on without losing sleep over it.

  6. #3836
    Aspiring to be an Awesome Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm not convinced this is a stock that needs to be bailed on at this point in time, best to let the dust settle and the games to play out. If or when the times comes to bail i wouldn't give it a second thought, big holdings and big losses sometimes go hand in hand and is something you have to accept and move on without losing sleep over it.
    Thanks Couta. Listening to your gut feeling has served you very well in the past, I hope this one comes right for you as well

  7. #3837
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    It's rather sad that while some think Turners (and their brokers) are really clever in buying so many really cheap share in the buyback they tend to overlook that collectively shareholders are now $29 million less wealthy than they were just over a week ago


    All because a delusional Board think the shares are worth north of $3 ...even brokers don't think that now.
    Quite the plunge in SP these past three weeks off a steady decline since July 2017. TA says $2.10-$2.00 support is in play. A sad state of affairs off a $3.70-$3.97 high (triple top?) back to 2013. Patient cashed up bottom feeders will be lurking.

  8. #3838
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The underlying gearing ratio of a lending company is much more obvious when that company takes in deposits as well. In the case of TRA all of the 'deposit' funding is provided by their banking arrangements. Turners is free to negotiate with its parent bankers on what is a suitable level of funding for the core of the company. It seems inconceivable that they would negotiate their own loan package in a way that would put their own 'funding core' at risk. So we can use the information we have combined with a 'rule of thumb' to calculate an appropriate sized funding core.

    The table below has taken items from the balance sheet (marked (1)). I have written the table with all the pieces adding up to a whole. However, the table has largely been constructed in a reverse way. That means starting with 'the whole' then figuring out a way to allocate 'the whole' to the separate constituent pieces. I start with filling in the number (1)s, then use arithmetic to calculate number (2)s. I keep on 'counting' the remaining numbers so that the table is filled in, in numerical order.

    Assets Liabilities Shareholder Equity
    Finance (Not Underlying) $185.368m (3) - $166.831m (4) = $18.537m (6)
    Underlying Finance $289.799m (1) - $141.715m (5) = $148.804m (6)
    Finance Sub Total $475.167m (*) - $308.546m (*) = $166.621m (2)
    Automotive Retail $176.565m (*) - $128.863m (*) = $47.702m (2)
    Balance Sheet Total (All) $651.732m (1) - $437.409m (1) = $214.323m (1)

    (*) These items are from my off-line 'segmented' spreadsheet. Assets/Liabilities are sized in proportion to segmented balance sheet information, but with eliminations and corporate costs apportioned between the 'automotive retail' and 'all other finance' divisions.

    Calculation (3) allows us to work out the core assets not related the underlying finance contracts of the business (everything else apart from the receivables book) by simple subtraction. The finance company 'rule of thumb' for their core is to ensure that:

    (Non-Risk Liabilities)/(Non-Risk Assets) < 0.9

    From this, we can work out that the Non-Risk Liabilities must be no more than:

    (Non-Risk Assets) x 0.9 = $185.368m x 0.9 = $166.831m (which is answer 4 above).

    Simple subtraction and addition is then used to work out the rest of the numbers in the table.

    So what's the point of this so far?

    By working out the minimum size of the business core (as measured by assets and liabilities), that means we can measure how well the rest of the business is set up to do the customer lending, the bit that actually generates the profits for the Turners Finance division. This is done by looking at the assets and liabilities left outside the core.

    Implied Available Financing Gearing ratio
    = (At Risk Liabilities)/(At Risk Assets)
    = $141.715m/$289.799m
    = 48.9%

    ( c.f. equivalent calculation for FY2017:
    Implied Available Financing Gearing ratio
    = (At Risk Liabilities)/(At Risk Assets)
    = $87.948m/$207.143m
    = 42.5% )

    Generally you would want to match your 'At Risk Liabilities' with your 'At Risk Assets'. The 'at Risk Assets' is another way of saying the 'finance receivables loan book'. The less borrowings you have to support the loan book, the more resilient your operation will be in a downturn. But there is another way to look at this. The less borrowings you have, the more restricted the size of the financial receivables loan book - you are not working the borrowing capacity to maximise the size of your loan book and hence maximise your returns. The greater the utilisation of your 'borrowing capacity' the greater the potential return, but also the greater the potential risk in a downturn. The fact that the at risk liabilities have increased as a percentage of the at risk assets over the year suggests to me that the Turners lending policy has become more conservative in FY2018 compared to FY2017.
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I don't think you understand their business. If your business is to borrow money at low rates and loan it to others at high rates, than having lots of debts is good.
    BP, I made a post in September on this topic, where I highlighted a dichotomy of two views on having 'lots of debts'. I find that I tend to think from the point of view of the consumer as a default position. A lender, like Turners, has an opposite viewpoint.

    Since this is a 'Turners' thread, I think I should challenge your line that 'having lots of debt is good'. Certainly having lots of car loans on the Turners books is good. But car loans are 'financial receivables' and therefore 'assets' for Turners. These assets are funded by Turners bonds and bank debt. I would argue that the less of this debt that Turners have the better.

    If you imagine an extreme case of Turners having no debt, and all Turners car loans funded by shareholders funds, then this is the lowest risk scenario for Turners going forwards. That is because there is zero chance that any debt will go sour in a market downturn if such debt doesn't exist.

    If we go to the other extreme where Turners have 'lot's of debt', and a used car market going sour (some would argue that is where Turners is now) and the financial receivables shrink to below the value of the debt used to fund them, THEN the difference is must be made up from shareholders funds. That is bad news for shareholders.

    Yet 'flip the coin' and you can argue that having lots of debt means you can have a bigger book of financial receivables (car loans) for which you can provide funding. So it seems having lots of debt being good or bad can come down to a market confidence issue. If the market is going well then having lots of debt could be good.

    Having criticised you, I now have to turn the spotlight of criticism back on myself, and the conclusion to my above referenced post that I made back in September. An 'at risk liability' is in all probability a bank loan. So having more of those in proportion to your loan book (risk assets) is most likely a bad thing. And that means the loan book position at Turners was in a more risky state at EOFY2018 than a year previous to that. The opposite conclusion to the conclusion I made at the time!

    SNOOPY
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  9. #3839
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Quite the plunge in SP these past three weeks off a steady decline since July 2017. TA says $2.10-$2.00 support is in play. A sad state of affairs off a $3.70-$3.97 high (triple top?) back to 2013Patient cashed up bottom feeders will be lurking.
    That assumes there are punters who are even remotely interested in Turners.(except the disciples of Grant and Todd)

    When is the bottom anyway?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #3840
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I think $2.00 is the bottom, called it there a while back and sticking with that. No growth eps (oh my goodness that phrase will upset some people) companies worth no more than a PE of 8.5 according to the legendary investor Ben Graham. Consensus eps from the two brokers is lower in FY21 than in FY18 How sad is that !
    8.5 x ~ 26 cps, (removing one off's) = $2.21...but these things often overshoot and there is so much negative sentiment both specifically for this company and on a macro level internationally I would be at all surprised to see $2.00 tested. I might be interested in a few more at that level but wouldn't pay the current price for any more.

    Now before we get any replies to this post I'll just put some popcorn on lol
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-12-2018 at 09:09 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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