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  1. #1641
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I rang my broker this morning to place two orders,one at $3.08 and one at $3.05.That was when he told me we had received allocations.I then decided not to place any buy orders,and hold off to see what the market did,keeping in mind we can apply for the SPP.
    So was a liitle surprised ,and pleased, to see three buyers, each wanting 5,000 shares at $3.18,$3.17 and $3.16.
    I ran the snout test over that depth. Three equal bids one cent apart. My nose to detect creative market making tells me that's a contrived bid by one interested party, possibly the underwriter ? My gut instincts tell me there's more juice in the new car market right at the minute with interest free or super low interest deals on no deposit on new highly fuel efficient vehicles with cutting edge technology...acknowledge my sense could be affected by our own buying tendencies but holding CMO to cover both bases
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #1642
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    No. Shares on issue EOFY2017 74,523,527
    No. Shares Sept 2017 Placement $25m / $3.02 = 8,278,146
    No. Shares Sept 2017 SPP $5m / $3.02 = 1,655,629
    Post capital raising total No. Shares 84,457,302 {A}

    Guidance for FY2018 is for NPAT of $29m - $31m {B}

    Forecast 'eps' based on the number of shares at the end of the financial year is therefore {B}/{A} which translates to a range of:

    34.3c to 36.7c per share

    I know this doesn't take into account the 'weighted average number of shares' that Beagle asked for, but I have my reasons for not doing so.

    The equivalent figure for FY2017 was:

    $17.609m / 74,523,527 = 23cps

    SNOOPY
    Before you go too far Snoops don't forget to take tax into account

    Guidance is net profit before tax
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1643
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Before you go too far Snoops don't forget to take tax into account

    Guidance is net profit before tax
    He forgot..!!!
    Big difference between NPBT and NPAT....lol.
    No wonder his eps figures were a lot higher than mine.
    I note buyers are now at $3.20.
    Last edited by percy; 14-09-2017 at 11:28 AM.

  4. #1644
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    LOL indeed. Forced me to do my own quick EPS growth calculation forgetting about all this nonsense weighted average capital basis (because they issue shares so regularly its hard to keep up).
    Last year $17.6m on 74.75m shares gives 23.5 cps.
    This year $30m before tax gives $21.6m after tax on 84.4m shares = 25.6 cps. EPS growth keeping it simple at the mid point of forecast, (and assuming there isn't yet another placement before FY18 year end) is thus 8.9%. At $3.20 it trades on a prospective PE of 12.5....higher than CMO's PE. Hmmmm that's pretty interesting especially with the latter having a very well established long history of profit growth. The apparent bargain some might imagine...I beg to differ, its actually higher than many other car companies globally and in N.Z. Check Ford's PE listed on the U.S. market as one example and there are many others. Lets not forget that in many respects car sales are cyclical, they do well when the economy is doing well, interest rates are very low and funding to credit worthy customers is readily available and they do not do well in tough economic recessions or during a GFC.
    At $3.02 it trades on 11.8 times forecasted FY18 earnings...looks more like fair value to me although still not a bargain by any means for a company with fairly strong cyclical characteristics. I will probably give the SPP plan a miss and buy more of SUM thing else.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-09-2017 at 11:41 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1645
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    LOL indeed. Forced me to do my own quick EPS growth calculation forgetting about all this nonsense weighted average capital basis (because they issue shares so regularly its hard to keep up).
    Last year $17.6m on 74.75m shares gives 23.5 cps.
    This year $30m before tax gives $21.6m on 84.4m shares = 25.6 cps. EPS growth keeping it simple at the mid point of forecast, (and assuming there isn't yet another placement before FY18 year end) is thus 8.9%. At $3.20 it trades on a prospective PE of 12.5....higher than CMO's PE. Hmmmm that's pretty interesting especially with the latter having a very well established long history of profit growth. The apparent bargain some might imagine...I beg to differ.
    At $3.02 it trades on 11.8 times forecasted FY18 earnings...more like it I think.
    I once worked at a CMO dealership in ChCh.
    Growth potential for TRA is a lot higher in my opinion.
    CMO is a very fine company,however, having the Ford agency may be limiting.

  6. #1646
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    ...acknowledge my sense could be affected by our own buying tendencies but holding CMO to cover both bases
    Yes, it could be. We have never purchased a new car and looking forward are not likely to. And we have never purchased a 2nd hand Jap import. Having said that, did have company cars for a long time.

  7. #1647
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Ford's ute selling like hot cakes. New 10 speed auto V8 Mustang coming will also be an exceptionally hot ticket item. (I have this earmarked as a possible acquisition for my own use). They have finally ditched their problematic DSG gearbox equipped Focus and are fitting them with proper convectional auto gearbox's.
    Ford are behind with electrification but that's not the be all and end all as I've alluded to at some length in the electric car thread.
    Mazda's new high tech petrol engine coming with all the benefits of a petrol and diesel engine looks interesting. I'm expecting very strong sales of Mazda vehicles.
    Sound very well and conservatively managed company with a very very long track record of consistent growth.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-09-2017 at 11:51 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #1648
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Have had to discount my DFC valuation by 9% to allow for more shares ...now less than $3
    Last edited by winner69; 14-09-2017 at 01:30 PM.

  9. #1649
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Have had to discount my DC valuation by 9% to allow for more shares ...now less than $3
    So you are now with me at $4.50 rather than $5.00 in a couple of years time.?............lol.

  10. #1650
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Have had to discount my DFC valuation by 9% to allow for more shares ...now less than $3
    Had another look at my numbers on CMO which at $7.70 is trading cum a 31 cent fully imputed divvy. At a theoretical ex divvy price on $$7.39 it is trading on a historical PE of 10.8. No formal forecast for FY18 has been issued but my expectations are for steady growth and I have them on a forward PE of just 10 with their long and highly credible track record of consistent growth compared to Turners with their much shorter history of growth on a forward PE of 12.5 at $3.20. Hmmmm..you guys can have my ones at $3.02. I will hold the bonds to their maturity next year and decide in due course whether to convert them of ask for the cash back.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-09-2017 at 03:51 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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