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17-01-2019, 10:25 AM
#3981
You have the other Beagle to thank for that because I barked about the poor binding at the annual meeting. I can't be bothered opining on the change in accounting standard...on holiday and holidays and thinking about accounting standards don't mix as far as I am concerned. If other bean counters enjoy thinking about the effect of accounting standard changes during their holidays then I recommend they seek professional psychological help, urgently lol.
I can't help noticing however the very soft overall tone to retail sales stat's, (its been all over the media this summer) and second hand vehicle stat's and I remain of the view that people are likely to be disappointed with retail and consumer durables stocks in 2019. I am sure the resident company spokesman still holds the opposite view and that's fine.
Last edited by Beagle; 17-01-2019 at 10:28 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-01-2019, 12:02 PM
#3982
Originally Posted by Beagle
You have the other Beagle to thank for that because I barked about the poor binding at the annual meeting. I can't be bothered opining on the change in accounting standard...on holiday and holidays and thinking about accounting standards don't mix as far as I am concerned. If other bean counters enjoy thinking about the effect of accounting standard changes during their holidays then I recommend they seek professional psychological help, urgently lol.
I can't help noticing however the very soft overall tone to retail sales stat's, (its been all over the media this summer) and second hand vehicle stat's and I remain of the view that people are likely to be disappointed with retail and consumer durables stocks in 2019. I am sure the resident company spokesman still holds the opposite view and that's fine.
Refer to my post # 3980.
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17-01-2019, 06:49 PM
#3983
An underlying eps comaprison: FY2018 vs FY2019F
Originally Posted by Snoopy
So to answer the question I posed:
"Did accounting standards kneecap the HY2019 result?"
For NZIFRS 15 the answer is 'no'. But for NZIFRS 9 the answer is 'yes'.
|
Profit FY2018 |
Profit HY2019 |
Annualized Profit FY2019 |
Reference |
As declared |
$23.360m |
$12.885m |
|
less Retrospective impairment provision adjustment |
0.72 x ($1.212)m |
|
|
My post 3980, this thread |
less Property sale gain Wiri |
|
($3.400)m |
|
HYR2019 p22 |
less earn Out payment for Autosure to P&L |
|
($0.800)m |
|
HYR2019 p22 |
less Revaluation Investment Property gain |
($0.820)m |
|
|
AR2018 p51 |
less Gain on Sale of Property, Plant and Equipment |
($1.000)m |
|
|
AR2018 p51 |
less EC Credit unredeemed voucher release to P&L |
0.72 x ($0.700)m |
|
|
AR2018 p13, HYR2019 p22 |
less MTF Shareholding revaluation |
($0.612)m |
|
|
AR2018 p67 |
less reduction in 'Buy Right Cars' earn out provision to P&L |
($2.600)m |
|
|
HYR2019 p49 |
less Life Insurance Contract Adjustments |
($2.664)m |
|
|
AR2018 p51 and p76 |
equals |
$14.287m |
$8.685m |
$17.370m |
|
Shares on Issue FY2018 |
Shares on issue HY2019 |
|
84,802,812 |
89,480,000 |
|
Normalised Annualised Business eps |
16.9c (FY2018) |
19.4c (FY2019f) |
|
At the current share price of $2.40, I have TRA on a forecast normalized PE ratio of 12.4 for FY2019. Underlying eps growth for the year should be 15%.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 20-08-2019 at 12:25 PM.
Reason: added references
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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17-01-2019, 06:59 PM
#3984
Snoops ...when you say kneecap I presume you mean something made the H119 result worse than what was reported ....yes?
Try hard enough and I trckon you’ll end up showing an outstanding H119 result (v pcp) ....but won’t it all be smoke and mirrors?
Posted when Post 3984 was incomplete.
Last edited by winner69; 17-01-2019 at 07:03 PM.
When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself
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17-01-2019, 07:00 PM
#3985
Hey Snoopy. Average broker forecast for FY19 is here https://www.marketscreener.com/TURNE...14/financials/ eps of just 26.7 cps. Some guy called Ben Graham reckons the right PE for a no growth company is 8.5...not sure how he values companies with declining eps, are you ?
Last edited by Beagle; 17-01-2019 at 07:08 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-01-2019, 07:43 PM
#3986
Originally Posted by winner69
Snoops ...when you say kneecap I presume you mean something made the H119 result worse than what was reported ....yes?
What I meant was that because the impairment provisioning is now higher, thanks to IFRS15, then the declared profit for HY2019 is lower than it otherwise would have been under the old rules. It that sense the HY2019 result is worse than the punters might have expected 'all things being equal'. However, because we are now in the IFRS15 era, the declared result for FY2019 will be 'correct' according to the new impairment rules definition. To make a fair comparison, we have to look at what would have happened had IFRS15 been in place over FY2018.
Try hard enough and I trckon you’ll end up showing an outstanding H119 result (v pcp) ....but won’t it all be smoke and mirrors?
1/ Yes
2/ All those adjustments are meant to take away the 'smoke and mirrors'.
Posted when Post 3984 was incomplete.
Nah. You were just too quick out of the blocks to answer it Winner. Too much 'on the ball' for your own good!
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 18-08-2019 at 10:36 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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17-01-2019, 07:45 PM
#3987
Originally Posted by Beagle
My forecast is lower than that!
Some guy called Ben Graham reckons the right PE for a no growth company is 8.5...not sure how he values companies with declining eps, are you ?
But I reckon underlying earnings are going to grow by 15%. That mean my estimated forecast PE of 12.4 is probably justified.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 18-01-2019 at 06:40 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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17-01-2019, 07:58 PM
#3988
Oh dear me what will I do with the increasing fully imputated divies paid quarterly.? 4 cents per share in a couple of weeks will cover the Xmas Visa bill nicely.
2019...... 17cents per share............7.08% net yield...Golly is that 9.4% gross yield?
2020.......17.5 cents per share.........7.29% net yield
2021.......18.5 cents per share.........7.71% net yield.
With those sort of yields I could be tempted to buy more TRA shares?!
I note NZ's leading broker expects the divies as follows
2019,.......17cps
2020.........18 cps...........................gross yield 10%
2021..........19cps............................gro ss yield 10.5%.Nice .
Last edited by percy; 17-01-2019 at 08:10 PM.
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17-01-2019, 08:55 PM
#3989
Is "imputated" something like amputated, like where the company amputates the tax and pays a gross dividend. If the dividend is fully imputed, is the yield the same as full imputated or amputated?
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17-01-2019, 09:17 PM
#3990
Originally Posted by Snoopy
My forecast is lower than that!
But I reckon underlying earnings are going to grow by 20%. That mean my estimated forecast PE of 11.3 is probably justified.
Brokers average eps forecast for FY21 is still lower than for FY18. What growth have you manufactured through your convoluted process and are you now in cahoots with Percy lol I stick with a PE of something less than 8.5 due to declining average eps expected over the next 3 years. 8 seems reasonable to me and on 25 cents that makes for an even $2 as fair value.
Originally Posted by percy
Oh dear me what will I do with the increasing fully imputated divies paid quarterly.? .
Imputed Percy....Oh I don't know, its such a dilemma but let me help you out... you could try offsetting the next 8-9 years of dividends against the whopping $1.50 in capital loss the shares have suffered in the last year or so lol. When is a dividend not a dividend ? When its paid by raising debt and massively overtaken by capital losses !
Last edited by Beagle; 17-01-2019 at 09:23 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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