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09-01-2019, 01:57 PM
#3931
Originally Posted by percy
All old news.
An update on current trading would be welcomed.
Not known for giving too many updates between the half and full year announcements
No news is good news I reckon ....things are not as bad as some think.
If there is an update it’ll probably be for bad news
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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09-01-2019, 02:00 PM
#3932
Originally Posted by percy
All old news.
An update on current trading would be welcomed.
Give them a call Percy, you're the company spokesman on here
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-01-2019, 05:24 PM
#3933
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Hmm - did anybody notice anything new in this report (but the more detailled financials)? It just seems to reiterate the exact statements made at the time of the HY results in November 2018.
A bit sad that they don't even seem to make a comment on the performance of Q3 (at least I didn't find any). Come on guys, we are now in Q4 and even if they haven't yet completed the numbers for Q3 they for sure would know which direction the sales and margins went ...
I noticed, but this is not new, that TRA operational cashflow is negative. I also noticed that the companies equity per share is reducing. Than I notice that the company is likely to earn less PBT than expected previously. The other thing I noticed is the company expects to pay 17 cents per share dividend.
Than I noticed that this does not make sense to me, something will change, maybe not this year.
The most likely change I think will be a reduced future dividend.
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09-01-2019, 05:59 PM
#3934
Originally Posted by forest
I noticed, but this is not new, that TRA operational cashflow is negative. I also noticed that the companies equity per share is reducing. Than I notice that the company is likely to earn less PBT than expected previously. The other thing I noticed is the company expects to pay 17 cents per share dividend.
Than I noticed that this does not make sense to me, something will change, maybe not this year.
The most likely change I think will be a reduced future dividend.
I think I wanted to point to the lack of an updated big picture statement and explicitly excluded the detailled financeials ... but fair enough.
The way you "color" it sounds however quite negative. So, yes - they are $1m cash negative. However - they invested nearly $6m this year in fixed assets and intangibles. Do you assume they need to do this every year? If this was a one off, they have next time plenty of cash to play with.
As well - if we assume their cashburn is constant, than they still would have more than a decade to go before they run out. If they need that long to implement their strategy, than I certainly would worry.
Looking at EPS - it went up from 13.2 cps in 1 HY18 to 15.4 cps in 1HY19 (admittedly - I took these numbers out of the report and didn't check on which basis they calculated the numbers of issued shares) - but even if they creatively worked with averages ... and even if NPAT drops by 10% or so ... not quite sure where the problem would be to pay per HY a 8 (or 8.5) cts dividend.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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09-01-2019, 06:12 PM
#3935
Cash flow.
If you considered TRA were a car sales company,or shoe retailer you could be right to worry about negative cash flow.
If you consider TRA to be a financial/insurance services company you could be wrong to worry about negative cash flow.
Seem to remember posters needlessly getting worked up about HGH being cash flow negative some time ago.
Last edited by percy; 09-01-2019 at 06:13 PM.
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09-01-2019, 06:23 PM
#3936
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
I think I wanted to point to the lack of an updated big picture statement and explicitly excluded the detailled financeials ... but fair enough.
The way you "color" it sounds however quite negative. So, yes - they are $1m cash negative. However - they invested nearly $6m this year in fixed assets and intangibles. Do you assume they need to do this every year? If this was a one off, they have next time plenty of cash to play with.
As well - if we assume their cashburn is constant, than they still would have more than a decade to go before they run out. If they need that long to implement their strategy, than I certainly would worry.
Looking at EPS - it went up from 13.2 cps in 1 HY18 to 15.4 cps in 1HY19 (admittedly - I took these numbers out of the report and didn't check on which basis they calculated the numbers of issued shares) - but even if they creatively worked with averages ... and even if NPAT drops by 10% or so ... not quite sure where the problem would be to pay per HY a 8 (or 8.5) cts dividend.
Yes as you say $1m cash negative, add to that $16m extra bank loan and nearly $9m proceeds of property etc and it adds up to $26mil in 6 months.
Now it is not looking so pretty.
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09-01-2019, 06:31 PM
#3937
Originally Posted by percy
Cash flow.
If you considered TRA were a car sales company,or shoe retailer you could be right to worry about negative cash flow.
If you consider TRA to be a financial/insurance services company you could be wrong to worry about negative cash flow.
Seem to remember posters needlessly getting worked up about HGH being cash flow negative some time ago.
I would agree with you Percy if the equity per share went up, like we had with HBL the last 4 years.
In TRA case this metrics is not going in share holders favour.
Maybe TRA should be given more time to proof itself but the trend is not that encouraging to me.
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09-01-2019, 07:45 PM
#3938
Shareholders equity has improved in the past year from 32.25% to 33.02%.
Total assets have increased to $658,193 from $622,372.while shareholders' equity has increased from $200,736 to $217,347.
All the time assets such as the "new" Wiri site has most probably doubled in value since TRA brought the site.
The Turners and BuyRight sites have expanded,while the insurance business has bulked up.The finance business has added 120 or more originators.
The business is in great shape,and the directors wisdom of bulking up all parts of the business is proving to be sound.Vertically intregrated business,with strong brands.
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09-01-2019, 07:58 PM
#3939
https://www.marketscreener.com/TURNE...14/financials/
EPS Actual earnings for the FY2018 28.9 cps
EPS Forecast Analyst average FY19 26.7
EPS Forecast Analyst average FY20 24.8
EPS Forecast Analyst average FY21 27.9
Average analyst forecasts do not suggest the business is in great shape in terms of eps growth...anything but.
Share price has gone nowhere, (actually backwards in the last 4 years) and there's nothing in those broker forecasts that would indicate a dramatic turnaround anytime soon.
I am sure someone will try and put a positive "spin" on those forecasted numbers but investors might like to consider how long said investor has been talking this up and what's actually happened to the share price in recent years and make up their own minds.
Nobody talks about the rise and rise of Trade Me stealing market share off physical stores...
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-01-2019, 08:00 PM
#3940
...and forest might point out that net debt has increased from $238m to $306m in same period that Percy used for assets and equity
Last edited by winner69; 09-01-2019 at 08:01 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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