TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[noodles]

Nearly a year ago now I came up with that .
Things have changed a little since then.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

That was before the TUA acquisition. Time to redo the model?

[biker]

All quiet on the TNR front. Would be nice to see a profit upgrade in the next week or two.

[couta1]

All quiet on the TNR front. Would be nice to see a profit upgrade in the next week or two.

Needs something looks a bit sad right now, where are the buyers? Disc-Holding at 34c

[noodles]

Needs something looks a bit sad right now, where are the buyers? Disc-Holding at 34c

It is a funny old thing the sharemarket. Those who bought in at a higher price are starting to get nervous. Those who bought in at a lower price are looking to top up.

Support is 30c

[percy]

I would have thought we would have seen a trading update late last month.
We may have to wait until mid/end May for the full year result.
I am expecting a very good result.
Paul Byrnes doesn't strike me as the type who nods off after lunch.!!

[Under Surveillance]

Lot's I like about this company, but I still haven't got my head around the SP increase since the take over.

DPC @ 25cps x 40% increase = 35cps
TUA @ $3.00 x 40% increase = $4.20

I don't know all the fundamentals about the increasing NPAT of either at the time of the takeover, and the synergies they have experienced since…..and therefore what the TNR NPAT may look like at year end. I am just purely looking at the overnight increase in the original TUA business's value?

Don't fry your brain with all that, just take note of the latest forecast for FY 2015 from DPC/TNR [from the H1 interim report notice to NZX, 22 December 2014]:
Group trading net profit before tax for the financial year to 31 March 2015 is now forecast to be around $14 million, up on the previous guidance of $11.5 million, as a result of the inclusion of 4 months of full profit contribution from Turners Group NZ Limited. In addition there will be abnormal profits of between $3.5 million and $4 million, the net result of bringing Dorchester’s earlier 19.85% holding in Turners into line with market value (being the $3.00 per share takeover offer price) and the write-off of all acquisition and transaction costs related to the Turners takeover.

On 2 December 2014 DPC/TNR had advised NZX that:

With the full ownership and control of Turners achieved, it is now expectedthat profit before tax [for FY 2016] will be around $23 million. Current tax losses should besufficient to cover forecast profits through to 31 March 2016. The group isexpected to be in a tax paying position from the financial year commencing 1April 2016.

To convert profit forecast numbers to a per share basis, the number of shares on issue at the moment is 630,765,588.

[percy]

Lot's I like about this company, but I still haven't got my head around the SP increase since the take over.

DPC @ 25cps x 40% increase = 35cps
TUA @ $3.00 x 40% increase = $4.20

I don't know all the fundamentals about the increasing NPAT of either at the time of the takeover, and the synergies they have experienced since…..and therefore what the TNR NPAT may look like at year end. I am just purely looking at the overnight increase in the original TUA business's value?

Since the takeover we know Turners Auctions are trading well.Turners Auctions opened up a lot of sale channels for TNR[DPC] products and services such as insurance and finance.
The synergies should be cutting overhead and increasing margin.The merger means one lot of director's fees and costs are saved as are the listing fees etc.
TNR have brought back a lot of the small shareholdings which will also save costs.
Now to get back to your overnight values, we will have to wait until the result is in,before we have the figures to make an informed judgement.

[noodles]

Since the takeover we know Turners Auctions are trading well.Turners Auctions opened up a lot of sale channels for TNR[DPC] products and services such as insurance and finance.
The synergies should be cutting overhead and increasing margin.The merger means one lot of director's fees and costs are saved as are the listing fees etc.
TNR have brought back a lot of the small shareholdings which will also save costs.
Now to get back to your overnight values, we will have to wait until the result is in,before we have the figures to make an informed judgement.

Nice summary percy.
The current forecast(made in Dec 2014) for FY16 NPBT = $23m. This will include a full year of turners, synergies, and organic growth.

[Under Surveillance]

I should have added that the forecast profits for FYs 2015 and 2016 are before tax (DPC/TNR expects to resume paying tax in FY 2017).

So, the $23M pre-tax forecast for FY 2016 amounts to 3.65 cents per share (spread over the number of shares issued as of today). Were tax to have been deducted at the company rate of 28%, NPAT would be 2.63 cents per share.

[Under Surveillance]

And what would the total dividend most likely be as a % of EPS for FY16? appreciate your comments.

I understand the current dividend policy is to pay about 40% of profits as dividends. In the instances of the 2 dividends paid since DPC got back on its feet, it seems that the 40% was applied to NPBT stripped of abnormals. Consistent with that, for FY 2016 as forecast with $23M NPBT, the FY dividend(s) would be 3.65 x 0.4 = 1.5 cents per share allowing that the $23M contained no significant abnormals and that the number of qualifying shares is static. {{I think, happy to be corrected.}}