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  1. #1631
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hope you're right mate. Early bids, (if you can call them that) in the pre-open don't inspire much confidence. I guess time will tell.
    "the markets are short term a voting and long term a weighing machine".

    Beagle is currently observing the voting characteristics of the market ... stock not that popular at the moment. And to be honest - I can't remember too many capital rises (of good companies) where the SP didn't go for some time down to or even slightly below the issue level of the new shares. Synlait had less than a year ago a Cap rise for $3 - and this is where the SP went ... look where it is now!

    I am pretty sure the TRA share price will (at least short term) drop down to (or close to) the $3 as well ... Obviously - underwriter will try to fight that prior to the closing date - i.e. wait until after that.

    Percy describes the fundamentals - and I agree - long term the prospects of the company do look pretty good (unless they screw up terribly what they are doing and so far I don't believe that). Becoming the big fish in a growth markets with lots of small fish can only be good - and look at all these potential synergy gains!

    What does this all mean? There may well be potential for some speculation - sell some before the CR and buy them back cheaper afterwards. Obviously - this only works if not everybody else tries to do the same thing - so, you better don't tell anybody ;

    Discl: hold (a reasonably sized parcel) and not too worried;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #1632
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hope you're right mate. Early bids, (if you can call them that) in the pre-open don't inspire much confidence. I guess time will tell.
    Looks like no one's interested in buying or selling this morning. Buy offer at 3.10 and sell at 3.32. That's some sort of gap!

  3. #1633
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Hope you're right mate. Early bids, (if you can call them that) in the pre-open don't inspire much confidence. I guess time will tell.
    I must admit my long term view is a lot longer than the next hour or two.!...lol.

  4. #1634
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Looks like no one's interested in buying or selling this morning. Buy offer at 3.10 and sell at 3.32. That's some sort of gap!
    I am interested in buying but if the institutions figure it is worth 3.02 then I will not be paying more.

  5. #1635
    percy
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    Thank you Craigs.
    Thought it was a very long shot,so was pleasantly surprised to receive 43% of what we bid for in the placement.

  6. #1636
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Thank you Craigs.
    Thought it was a very long shot,so was pleasantly surprised to receive 43% of what we bid for in the placement.
    Interesting Percy, wonder what that might be signaling about the uptake? Quite a standoff on the market so far.

  7. #1637
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Interesting Percy, wonder what that might be signaling about the uptake? Quite a standoff on the market so far.
    If we use TA, than the next support level worthwhile mentioning would be around $3.00; Pretty sure this is where it will go, but still - why not support a good company at $3.02?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #1638
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Interesting Percy, wonder what that might be signaling about the uptake? Quite a standoff on the market so far.
    I rang my broker this morning to place two orders,one at $3.08 and one at $3.05.That was when he told me we had received allocations.I then decided not to place any buy orders,and hold off to see what the market did,keeping in mind we can apply for the SPP.
    So was a liitle surprised ,and pleased, to see three buyers, each wanting 5,000 shares at $3.18,$3.17 and $3.16.

  9. #1639
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    If we use TA, than the next support level worthwhile mentioning would be around $3.00; Pretty sure this is where it will go, but still - why not support a good company at $3.02?
    I will be..lol.
    Bit of ammo to come from OIC.[nice people]
    Last edited by percy; 14-09-2017 at 10:56 AM.

  10. #1640
    On the doghouse
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    Default 'eps' forecast FY2018: Post Capital September 2017 Raising

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Can someone please crunch the numbers on EPS for FY18 taking into account the new shares issued at the half way point of the year, i.e weighted average EPS this year and calculate this at the mid point of the forecast range and compare to last year's EPS to calculate EPS profit growth forecasted for FY18.
    No. Shares on issue EOFY2017 74,523,527
    No. Shares Sept 2017 Placement $25m / $3.02 = 8,278,146
    No. Shares Sept 2017 SPP $5m / $3.02 = 1,655,629
    Post capital raising total No. Shares 84,457,302 {A}

    Guidance for FY2018 is for NPBT of $29m - $31m
    Guidance for FY2018 is for NPAT is NPBT x 0.72 = $20.9m - $22.2m {B}

    Forecast 'eps' based on the number of shares at the end of the financial year is therefore {B}/{A} which translates to a range of:

    24.7c to 26.3c per share

    I know this doesn't take into account the 'weighted average number of shares' that Beagle asked for, but I have my reasons for not doing so.

    The equivalent figure for FY2017 was:

    $17.609m / 74,523,527 = 23.6cps

    Using the end of year share measure, the projected NPAT 'eps' gain for FY2018 is: 4.7% to 11.4%. If we use Percy's yardstick of 'fair value' being when the PE reflects the growth, this means the 'fair value' projected share price for FY2018 is between:

    4.7 x 23.6 = $1.11 (minimum)
    11.4 x 23.6 = $2.69 (maximum)

    I am not feeling much excitement looking at share price target figures like that.

    {Further adjustment from (my post 1478) to come.}


    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 14-09-2017 at 11:52 AM. Reason: Corrected forecast NPBT to NPAT (tks Winner)
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

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