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  1. #1671
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Selling at 3.02 is such a massive difference to the 180MA too. Most of the year the SP has been above $3.60 and looked like it was heading towards $4. Now after "good results and growth slightly above expectations" they are selling a heap at $3.02. Very disappointing and this has become another red arrow in my portfolio with MPG and TWR! Been a bloody awful run for me in the last 3 months after a very successful start to the year
    Jeez I hadn't realized the share price has collapsed 20% over the last 4 months

    You'd think that it can't go much lower - Jeremy if you still believe the story hang in there

    Sad looking chart at the moment - must be some obvious chart pattern to give an idea what might happen .....my guess a wavy line between 300 and 320 for several months mimicking what it was doing this time last year

    Isn't the chart saying punters don't believe they are delivering on the promises
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1672
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez I hadn't realized the share price has collapsed 20% over the last 4 months

    You'd think that it can't go much lower - Jeremy if you still believe the story hang in there

    Sad looking chart at the moment - must be some obvious chart pattern to give an idea what might happen .....my guess a wavy line between 300 and 320 for several months mimicking what it was doing this time last year

    Isn't the chart saying punters don't believe they are delivering on the promises
    For the record, their results show they are delivering on their promises.

  3. #1673
    Following the momo
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    I have been away for a little over a week and imagine my surprise after reading Wednesdays announcement!

    Well thank you for the lesson Mr Market :-)

    When my Technical sell signal was triggered back in late June (price fell below $3.70), I wasn't listening.
    When the death cross occurred in July, I wasn't watching.
    When the share price failed to rally after crossing down through $3.50, I wasn't paying attention.
    When there was relentless selling pressure in the 6 weeks leading up to this, I was in denial.

    All these signals fell on deaf ears, as I believed that I knew better.

    Well thank you Mr Market. You did your best to warn and educate me, but I didn't want to hear.

    There is a positive out of this experience and that it is now a lesson (one which I will not forget).

    Now I see the reason for all the continued selling and lack of buyers the last few months.
    Now I see what the girl (management) I got friendly with and brought home at 3am last night, really looks like without makeup in the morning (how they really feel about retail investors).

    Actions speak louder than words, and I read the TRA team's message loud and clear.

    Will be an interesting AGM, as there are some good questions that should be put forward to management. This is the first real time I feel like they have dropped the ball (from a retail investor point of view).

    No investment case left for me in this company. Solid downtrend and leaky boat for those in the club!
    Will be price bound for ages IMHO between $3.02 and $3.35

  4. #1674
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    I have been away for a little over a week and imagine my surprise after reading Wednesdays announcement!

    Well thank you for the lesson Mr Market :-)

    When my Technical sell signal was triggered back in late June (price fell below $3.70), I wasn't listening.
    When the death cross occurred in July, I wasn't watching.
    When the share price failed to rally after crossing down through $3.50, I wasn't paying attention.
    When there was relentless selling pressure in the 6 weeks leading up to this, I was in denial.

    All these signals fell on deaf ears, as I believed that I knew better.

    Well thank you Mr Market. You did your best to warn and educate me, but I didn't want to hear.

    There is a positive out of this experience and that it is now a lesson (one which I will not forget).

    Now I see the reason for all the continued selling and lack of buyers the last few months.
    Now I see what the girl (management) I got friendly with and brought home at 3am last night, really looks like without makeup in the morning (how they really feel about retail investors).

    Actions speak louder than words, and I read the TRA team's message loud and clear.

    Will be an interesting AGM, as there are some good questions that should be put forward to management. This is the first real time I feel like they have dropped the ball (from a retail investor point of view).

    No investment case left for me in this company. Solid downtrend and leaky boat for those in the club!
    Will be price bound for ages IMHO between $3.02 and $3.35

    A first rate honest post McGinty and SUM's it up well. Despite all the positivity from one or two on here the FACTS are this company's SP has been in a steady decline, there are hints of insider trading with the major shareholder selling out, directors were "too keen" ? to raise more capital in a real hurry, (the other hound suggested they were very close to breeching their covenant ratio's to bondholders and I am inclined to agree with him). I have read a very recent report suggesting used car stocks are at an all time high since the GFC, (apologies I cannot provide a link so you'll simply have to take me at my word) and I think things are not all as they seem at Turners. If I could get my theoretical $1.05 at maturity my bonds are worth I'd sell in a flash. If I was a shareholder I'd be selling.
    As I posted earlier this week I DEFINITLY DO NOT not think these shares are a bargain at the current SP relative to CMO which I note has a vastly longer track record of steady growth and don't "stick it" to retail shareholders either with quick capital raises and I note that CMO shares trade at a significant PE discount to TNR, CMO FY18 PE 10.0 TNR FY18 PE 12.5.
    I will definitely not be taking up any shares under the SPP plan as I have serious reservations the shares are even worth $3.02. I think in fact we may be right at the top of the cycle of immigration and they'll struggle to sell the volume of used cars, (and I think they are overstocked) if Labour get into power and cut immigration. I also think with the abundance of no deposit no interest deals on new cars which come with new car warranties and the latest technology as well as being more fuel efficient there could be a structural shift going on in the car market towards newer cars.
    I think CMO are a far better bet than this company. If some headwinds become apparent I can see this going under $3.00, possibly into the mid $2 range which is why I won't be taking up any entitlement to shares under the SPP plan at $3.02 despite having a decent entitlement because of the size of my bond holding. The size of the discount to the VWAP that these new shares had to be issued at as well as the company choosing to underwrite them at significant cost suggests to me the company really needed the funds.
    I note First N.Z. have issued a client note that was not complimentary to the manner in which these funds were raised and the New Zealand shareholders association are deeply unimpressed.
    A company with very modest EPS growth prospects being run in a manner that could be considered in some respects to be counter intuitive to retail shareholders best interests ? Looking after the major shareholders perhaps ?
    Beagles rating: SELL shares, hold bonds ( hold / accumulate CMO instead for quality exposure to this sector at more realistic PE).
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-09-2017 at 09:15 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1675
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    No investment case left for me in this company. Solid downtrend and leaky boat for those in the club!
    Will be price bound for ages IMHO between $3.02 and $3.35
    Was there really a leaky boat here? TRA announced that they were listing in Australia to broaden their funding base. So why is anyone now surprised that they are offering shares to Australian institutions in a placement? Especially when you know that this 'funding diversification' could not have been achieved by going down the path of a conventional rights issue.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  6. #1676
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    I have been away for a little over a week and imagine my surprise after reading Wednesdays announcement!

    Well thank you for the lesson Mr Market :-)

    When my Technical sell signal was triggered back in late June (price fell below $3.70), I wasn't listening.
    When the death cross occurred in July, I wasn't watching.
    When the share price failed to rally after crossing down through $3.50, I wasn't paying attention.
    When there was relentless selling pressure in the 6 weeks leading up to this, I was in denial.

    All these signals fell on deaf ears, as I believed that I knew better.

    Well thank you Mr Market. You did your best to warn and educate me, but I didn't want to hear.

    There is a positive out of this experience and that it is now a lesson (one which I will not forget).

    Now I see the reason for all the continued selling and lack of buyers the last few months.
    Now I see what the girl (management) I got friendly with and brought home at 3am last night, really looks like without makeup in the morning (how they really feel about retail investors).

    Actions speak louder than words, and I read the TRA team's message loud and clear.

    Will be an interesting AGM, as there are some good questions that should be put forward to management. This is the first real time I feel like they have dropped the ball (from a retail investor point of view).

    No investment case left for me in this company. Solid downtrend and leaky boat for those in the club!
    Will be price bound for ages IMHO between $3.02 and $3.35
    All unfortunately so very correct.
    Yet all the time the business model has been very much improved in all divisions,and the growth prospects still are excellent.and more achievable with the stronger capital base.
    We remain living in interesting times.,
    Last edited by percy; 16-09-2017 at 07:29 AM.

  7. #1677
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    For the record, their results show they are delivering on their promises.
    .....but not too market expectations .......and key financial metrics like declining margins, low EPS growth and declining ROE

    But then great things take time eh



    Wouldn't be buying business would they?
    Last edited by winner69; 16-09-2017 at 07:55 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #1678
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    .....but not too market expectations .......and key financial metrics like declining margins, low EPS growth and declining ROE

    But then great things take time eh



    Wouldn't be buying business would they?
    Offcourse they will be buying further businesses.
    When a business lays solid foundations,you can be certain all ratios will come.
    I think I find it very easy to compare TRA with HBL.All the time doing the right things to develop their businesses.Knowing where they want to be in the market,and getting to those places very quickly.The results may take a little longer to come through,but they will.You were very dissappointed with HBL's REL acquisition, and wrote many posts saying what a dud it was.Turned into a great buy.Like HBL Turners have made no dud acquisitions.
    Both HBL and TRA have directors who are savvy,and have plenty of skin on the line.I keep thinking where these businesses will be in three years time.Have you.?
    I remain "well positioned" in both, and will be applying for more TRA via their SPP,again using our rainy day funds.
    Last edited by percy; 16-09-2017 at 08:30 AM.

  9. #1679
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    ........You were very dissappointed with HBL's REL acquisition, and wrote many posts saying what a dud it was.
    percy - you are wrong
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #1680
    Outside thinking.
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    McGinty's post #1674 is a great reminder to us all of the warning signs we ignore at our peril. GLH.

    (Disc; non TRA holder and happy)

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