TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[McGinty]

Just added 847 to the wife's holding,and 3130 to mine.Both of us having the same even amount, makes things easier to work out.Also saves arguments as to who received the bigger divie.and who pays for our next holiday.Paid $3.14 xd.

What is KW's rule about buying in a downtrend Percy? It's been a while since we've caught up for a ST catch up, but surely this hasn't escaped you.


I'll ask her tomorrow if you need a refresher?

[Joshuatree]

Originally Posted by KW
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517


2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

Attachment 4518

Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519

3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520

I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.

[McGinty]

Originally Posted by KW
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517


2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

Attachment 4518

Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519

3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520

I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.

Thanks JT,

It's a blast from the past but still worth a re-read :-)

[couta1]

What is KW's rule about buying in a downtrend Percy? It's been a while since we've caught up for a ST catch up, but surely this hasn't escaped you.


I'll ask her tomorrow if you need a refresher?

Her rule isn't always right, I've bought in downtrends, eg Air and others and done okay.

[percy]

What is KW's rule about buying in a downtrend Percy? It's been a while since we've caught up for a ST catch up, but surely this hasn't escaped you.


I'll ask her tomorrow if you need a refresher?

I have done very well following KW's rules.
Against her advice I held and brought more PGC in Aussie,because I had nearly 30 years investing in the sector via EBO in NZ..
In NZ I think she was against me buying more HBL when they hit a downtrend.
When I know a company backwards I follow my own research.If I am wrong I wake up quickly and sell.I know what to expect from announcements.
The reasons I backed myself with PGC and HBL proved to be correct.
I expect to be correct with TRA as well.
I usually buy a small position in a company.On positive announcements,that prove my reaearch is correct,I buy more,and keep buying more as the company continues to achieve what they say they will do.
PGC,HBL,and TRA all have directors and management with very large shareholdings.All have excellent balance sheets,strong cash flow,are achieving growth both by organic,and sensible acquistions.All know where they want to be, and are focussed on getting there.
I am more than satisfied with the results I have achieved in both NZ and Aussie over the past few years.In fact, incredible results,helped by few mistakes.

[Beagle]

Her rule isn't always right, I've bought in downtrends, eg Air and others and done okay.

Her rule is right far more often than wrong though mate. If investors other than Percy see value here we'd see more serious interest and depth on the buy side. The palpable lack of depth and liquidity in this stock and its clear downtrend should be a red flag to any risk averse investor.

I must say Percy I am surprised by the apparent size of your position in a company with such modest EPS growth..there's SUM better EPS growth opportunities out there in my opinion, ones that are not in a confirmed downtrend either....you've got plenty of money so it doesn't matter at your age if you get a haircut but making out like this is a sure bet for others to follow your lead...I am not so sure about...but good luck to you.

[percy]

This year's eps growth will be affected by the increase number of shares on issue,so I expect only between 7% and 9% eps growth.The capital has been raised,and is being put to good use.
However I am expecting approx. eps growth of 15% plus in the following years,which will enable TRA to increase their dividend.TRA's dividend yield is currently 4.62% while SUM's is 1.83%.TRA have made good acquisitions which will see earnings strengthen.With a Labour government I see TRA being in the right sector at the right time [as are SUM] however any increase in interest rates will work to TRA's advantage,while they will work against SUM.

[winner69]

NZ Super Fund holds a few

Don’t seem to hold Heartland though

Turners cant be too bad then

[Snow Leopard]

I am surprised that the Pot Is Calling the Kettle Black here .

[Beagle]

They have a consistent track record of issuing more shares. Even more shares will be issued in 2018 when some convertible bond holders convert to shares and I am sure they will make another issue of convertible notes contemporaneously. 2019 will probably be another capital raise and 2020 more shares will be issued when the next lot of convertible bonds mature....and so on. Meanwhile SUM companies just go about growing earnings per share at an average rate of 48% without share issues and are trading on roughly the same cheap forward PE...go figure... Its not that hard to see who has the better track record of EPS growth and the vastly more attractive PEG.
SP follows EPS growth...so some astute poster on here told me once upon a time...