TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[percy]

Percy....stop poking that dog with a stick !

For the record.
I have read both Craigs' and FNZC's latest research on TRA.
Both confirm what I have posted on this thread.
"Buy" and "outperform" means we remain "well positioned."

[Beagle]

Both reports would have been prepared before the announcement yesterday that business confidence has fallen off the edge of a cliff to lows not seen since the GFC which I think has serious implications for the vehicle industry going forward. You need confidence to invest in major capital items and if confidence isn't there business's keep their chequebooks closed on major capex items. Obviously this has implications for CMO as well. Watching closely for impact on consumer confidence. If that starts to turn just as ugly then it will be crystal clear this cyclical industry has past its peak and is on the way down...
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...kiwi-dropshtml
Disc: Still holding a modest stake in TNR convertible bonds.

[percy]

Think HLG.
Same could be said of them.
HLG and TRA will both do well,with a Labour government..
Both are "well positioned."
New car sales may be a very diiferent story.Take care.!
Funny enough the charts are telling me it may be the right time to sell one .and buy the other.
One has buyers lining up,while the other has sellers lining up.
"The trends are a changing".

[Joshuatree]

Once in my life i drove a car naked but i have never worn clothes naked so im thinking both stocks will do well here if you get my drift/ cut of my gib.

[Beagle]

I am happy to acknowledge that most new car purchases are made by business's so the effect of this apparent collapse may be more acutely felt at CMO and the Chairman at the recent annual meeting in fact warned that it doesn't take much of a drop in business confidence to affect new car sales. That said they're right into trucks too as are TRA.
TRA on the other hand at their end of the market are more likely to be affected by a change in consumer confidence but I think there is likely to be some effect from business confidence declining so sharply. I for one think there's a major difference between the purchase of a car that involves considerable capex to buying clothes but I acknowledge this is less pronounced at the lower end of the car market as when one's old car stops working there's a need for a replacement regardless of economic conditions.

"Thank you" for that mental image JT Got to get that out of my head now lol

[percy]

My experience in retail and the motor trade tells me when retail is busy,so are used cars.
With workers having "their" government in power they will spend more on retail,and take on debt to upgrade their car.They are more confident in retaining their jobs.
What they will avoid is large mortgages.
And yes new car sales will be under pressure.
Equipment/truck sales will most probably continue,as the government spends more on infrastructure projects.

[Beagle]

Fair comment on the general retail comparison Percy but I think you may be drawing a long bow to compare HLG's stunning market update with sales up 15% to TRA's near term prospects. HLG have reinvested extensively in the last year with double their normal capex program with new Euro style stores both here and across the Tasman and these nicely refreshed stores are clearly resonating well with consumers.

By way of comparison there's nothing much wrong with any of the Briscoe's stores I've visited with generally a good clean modern layout and Rod Duke recently announced a modest 2.7% lift in Q3 sales to the end of October and by way of further comparison WHS sales have been in decline although much of that is to do with their repositioning of pricing to everyday value.

Disc: For what its worth, today I reduced my CMO shares and used the proceeds to add to my holding in HLG. I'm watching future consumer confidence survey's closely.

[percy]

Turners have developed three new equipment/trucks sites,two of which are now operational.
Two new Turners sites are being developed,and a Buy Right Cars site.
Six new sites,selling not only equipment/trucks/cars but finance and insurance.
Timely selling down CMO.And yes I think there is mileage in HLG.The way TRA were talking at their presentation, I think they are going great guns, now the election is done and dusted.Remember they are closer to the coal face than daily sharechat.
Briscoes.Great operation.Nice products.I avoid WHS.

[Beagle]

I agree that the development of new sites is probably a good use for the new capital raised and certainly more likely to be better than than buying existing dealerships and paying millions more for goodwill that may or may not be worth much. I take you point which was well made about building scale into their model. I think the shocking business confidence survey out this week is a game changer for new car distributors and in that context given that's its predominantly business's that buy new cars with this new in formation now released I now concur with you that its likely that the used car segment will outperform new cars in 2018.

[winner69]

Develop your own sites and you get what you want.

Once settled in sell and leaseback always getting a very good price .....and heaps of profit

Way to go.