Interesting. New vehicle sales up 9% for 2017 whereas Turners are expecting a 2% increase.
Last edited by Beagle; 02-01-2018 at 12:00 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
You certainly are. My prediction that new sales would outstrip used has certainly come true for 2017 but it looks like consumer and business confidence is tailing off so we could see a reversal of that trend in 2018.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Yes new cars will be slow.
However a very different story for used cars/trucks and equipment.
TRA sales will be strong,and all the time they will be clipping the ticket with finance and insurance.
Fantastic brand,fantastic business model.
I am not over confident with truck sales. Business has clearly lost confidence with the change of government and I expect business's to be cautious with capex until they see how the economy will perform under Labour but good luck to holders.
Last edited by Beagle; 02-01-2018 at 12:49 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
TRA will grow used truck and equipment sales,with their new Wiri and Hamilton sites now on stream.
The momentum builds.
Well, Yes and No. Momentum is building to some extent, (not sure if a 2% sales increase for 2017 is what I'd call momentum), and yes they have some new dealerships now but they also have a lot more shares on issue now and a lot more to be issued in Sept as a result of the convertible bonds redemption. Momentum is only any good if its on an EPS basis and the company's own forecast suggests EPS growth of just 4% for FY18. I try and invest in companies with more EPS momentum than that. Maybe they will outperform their own forecast...but then again they don't have a history of doing that so perhaps not. As always time will tell.
P.S. I have done the books for a second hand truck dealership for many years. In my opinion its all about the caliber of the management and how well they buy overseas both in terms of pricing and buying the right product to meet local demand. There was a LOT of money in this sort of thing in the early days, its a lot more competitive now both locally and overseas. The main problem is that with strong world-wide growth there's very strong demand for used trucks overseas and the real used bargains that once existed in Japan and elsewhere are no longer there...well that's what I hear from my client for what its worth.
Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2018 at 09:36 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by LAC
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