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  1. #2141
    IMO
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    Thanks Forest and Roger. Im going to spread this (below)around a bit more as i think its great listening from Orr ,our Reserve bank Guv, talks about all sorts of things including change re Global warming and thinking longterm, planning earlier.

    Listenduration 35′ :04″

  2. #2142
    Membaa
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    I can't see ICE or older car sales evaporating any time soon, or even near soon, Kiwi's are addicted to cheap cars and they're almost all ICE. Buy em' drive em' till they break, dump em' buy em' again etc, rinse and repeat.

    Google reckons in 2015 there were about 3.8 million cars in NZ, up on previous years. That will take a while to cycle through to destruction, meanwhile there's a massive market for cheap and not so cheap used ICE vehicles and increasingly used EV's, which Turners will process a large percentage of sales.

    Just chill there's no need for alarmist futuristic prognostications, total vehicle numbers are growing year on year, it's no matter whether they're ICE or EV. When the sharing economy takes hold, or if it does, then maybe there'll be a decline in total sales, perhaps after that autonomous vehicles and a further decline in total numbers, but hey get real, even if it does happen the runway for that is umpteen years away and plenty of time to make informed investment decisions.

    TRA will do very well for a very long time and when/if it's not, it will be obvious. That's when we make our decisions. Not before.

  3. #2143
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    I went shopping for a car in the weekend. Overall was very disappointed with Turners. The cars were all quite old and over priced and I was in their Penrose store for almost an hour and not one representative said hi to me, which is surprising given how many staff were working. Ended up buying a second hand car directly from Honda which was in very good condition and a better price. The service was also excellent and I felt very important even though I wasn't buying new.
    SNAP! Went to the Chch 'yard' today - what a mess. The cars in tonight's auction are dotted all over the show (and it's a BIG lot). The staff person was apologetic (I had to approach her and ask for help, as none was forthcoming ) about the ridiculous 'treasure hunt' approach to finding vehicles.

    And the prices were loopy - they have seemingly purchased an endless supply of aging bangers with 2 -300k on the clock and priced them at $3.49k. Daft.

  4. #2144
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    I have to somewhat agree here, I went to the Penrose one a couple weeks ago n wasn’t too impressed by the mix mash of vehicles, really hope they bring in more quality vehicles. The numbers n business model looks solid but the product on offer wasn’t too flattering to be honest. Very clean and tidy yard but no service reps approached us

  5. #2145
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    Quote Originally Posted by LAC View Post
    I have to somewhat agree here, I went to the Penrose one a couple weeks ago n wasn’t too impressed by the mix mash of vehicles, really hope they bring in more quality vehicles. The numbers n business model looks solid but the product on offer wasn’t too flattering to be honest. Very clean and tidy yard but no service reps approached us
    I must say though, the chips at the cafe at Penrose were fantastic

  6. #2146
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    I can't see ICE or older car sales evaporating any time soon, or even near soon, Kiwi's are addicted to cheap cars and they're almost all ICE. Buy em' drive em' till they break, dump em' buy em' again etc, rinse and repeat.

    Google reckons in 2015 there were about 3.8 million cars in NZ, up on previous years. That will take a while to cycle through to destruction, meanwhile there's a massive market for cheap and not so cheap used ICE vehicles and increasingly used EV's, which Turners will process a large percentage of sales.

    Just chill there's no need for alarmist futuristic prognostications, total vehicle numbers are growing year on year, it's no matter whether they're ICE or EV. When the sharing economy takes hold, or if it does, then maybe there'll be a decline in total sales, perhaps after that autonomous vehicles and a further decline in total numbers, but hey get real, even if it does happen the runway for that is umpteen years away and plenty of time to make informed investment decisions.

    TRA will do very well for a very long time and when/if it's not, it will be obvious. That's when we make our decisions. Not before.
    Look - nobody is panicking (i.e. no need to chill), and obviously - everybody will make their own decisions.

    However - I found two data points from the presentation quite interesting:

    In 1900 the streets of New York have been full of horse and carts. In 1913 the roads have been clogged with cars - no horse around anymore. The change from all horse to all car took a bit longer than a decade.

    Digital Photography: 2000 was the heydays of film photography. Most pics developed ever. Kodak was a great and successful company. I myself bought in the early phases of digital still a film camera, because digital photos just didn't had the resolution I wanted. Bad decision - 2 years later there was no point anymore in using the film camera, paying a dollar for each photo and waiting a week for the pics to be developed. Ah yes, and Kodak filed in 2012 for bankruptcy.

    If using a self driving car is (as Tony claims) in some years 4 to 10 times cheaper per km than using the old oil or petrol com-buster (and his data look sensible), than who will still buy a car with ICE? Sure - nobody can foresee the future, but I think it makes sense to start pondering what such a step change might mean for all of us.

    And yes - there well might be a role for TRA in this new world. Nokia started as a manufacturer of pulp mills - and look where they are these days ;. However - TRA better make sure they don't end up like most of the cart dealers and manufacturers after 1900, or like Kodak this century.

    If you see the wave of change coming it can be fun to surf ... but better be prepared. Putting the head into the sand is typically a bad strategy.

    Have a look at the presentation - it will be worth your while ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 24-04-2018 at 07:55 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #2147
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Headwinds or Tailwinds, you choose.

    Quite apart from the long term future concerns the fact that we now have multiple anecdotal reports on here of people visiting Turners car lots and experiencing unhelpful sales "assistants" if you can call them that ? and an unhelpful display arrangements of vehicles tells me there's a systemic cultural problem in the company with its sales staff. You don't fix that sort of problem overnight...

    I'm with BP on this horse and cart thing. EV's for under $100K that do 450 km's on a charge are here in July 2018 and probably somewhere around $70-80K. Full EV's that can do 200 km's on a charge brand new are already here for $55K. (Hyundai INIOQ). With the speed of price decline in the lithium-ion battery manufacturing when these sorts of vehicles halve in price, I reckon 4-5 years away in N.Z., BINGO, very few people will but a new ICE vehicle. Sure there will still be plenty of older ICE engines for the dealers to sell...for a while but the headwinds in the long term should be obvious at least as much as the tailwinds are for the retirement sector !

    Food for thought...The question becomes do you want to invest in an industry with long term headwinds or long term tailwinds ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-04-2018 at 08:15 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #2148
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    I don't see much of a difference between selling second hand EVs or second hand ICE vehicles. As suggested autonomous driving will be the real disruption to TRA's business (as well as other auto retailers, CMO etc.), the timing of this seems less certain than EVs which are imminent.

    So I guess there are headwinds on the horizon but they will not start to blow for another 10 years at least imo.

  9. #2149
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    Perhaps most people who go to buy at Turners are not fazed by these "issues" of cars all over the place, no sales people etc.
    I have sold a couple of cars thru them as it is 1> easier than having to deal with a private sale scenario and all that entails and 2. will get more for it than a trade in.
    However, I would not buy from there myself, easier to search online then go to the yard have a look in person, test drive etc and have the backing of some kind of warranty (if applicable) from a reputable yard
    In general I would tend to agree with Mr 108 as well, yes headwinds, but will not have a major impact until driverless cars gather momentum, of course they still own Buy Right cars don't they as an alternative to the "mess" at Penrose etc
    But also agree Mr Beagle no tail winds in this industry as opposed to sum others

    Discl: None held
    Last edited by Jay; 24-04-2018 at 09:24 AM.

  10. #2150
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Point to ponder then...how many years away are we in N.Z. from hailing a cheap uber / taxi ride with a driverless E.V. ? I think its less than some others are thinking. My guess, and obviously its just that, is 10 years.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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