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  1. #2551
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    Couta's valuation $3.83, Snoopy's $3.82, now that's never happened before, obviously I agree with the dog on this one.

  2. #2552
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Couta's valuation $3.83, Snoopy's $3.82, now that's never happened before, obviously I agree with the dog on this one.
    This Beagle is $4 so we're all thinking along similar lines but a fair bit of water to go under the bridge before we get there.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #2553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    They seemed keen on the message of no more - significant - earnings dilution.
    Before I forget, there was a mention in the presentation of a small future dilution in earnings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Motor Trade Finance had its beginnings in Dunedin as a co-operative more than 40 years ago. The ownership rules state that no one shareholder may own more than 10% of MTF (Turners are the largest shareholder and own 8%). Other significant shareholdings of 3-4% are owned by each by Honda Cars and Colonial Motors. 75% of all stakeholders must vote to change the ownership cap. Turners are looking to improve the quality of their loans through Motor Trade Finance. Turners originally bought into MTF at a price of $1.15. While increasing their stake towards the 10% cap cannot be ruled out, the current MTF market price of over $2 make such a move unattractive. MTF has a participating membership of 200 dealers and 50 independent franchisees.
    Turners are aware that one of the keys to the success of MTF is that the users of the service are also the shareholders. This is the thinking behind the idea of issuing TRA shares to dealers and brokers. Shareholders tend to be loyal users. The shares to be issued are nevertheless expected to be less than 0.1% (less than 100,000 in total) of the shares already on issue.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-07-2018 at 03:33 PM.
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  4. #2554
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    This Beagle is $4 so we're all thinking along similar lines but a fair bit of water to go under the bridge before we get there.

    I hope you gurus that all come up with $3.80 to $4.00 are right on the button even though the bible says $3.32
    http://www.4-traders.com/TURNERS-AUT...944/consensus/

    My faith in you guys remains strong though
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2555
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    Until we see how many note holders convert their notes to shares, or take cash, it is hard to figure out eps without knowing the number of shares that will be on issue.A number of people who own notes,are not natural share investors.
    Current shares on issue are 84,802,612.The bond issue is $26mil.
    Very rough figures on 50% conversion is 4,062,500 new shares, giving new total on issue 88.865,112.
    On 75% conversion is 6,093,750, giving new total on issue 90,996,362.
    What would work in shareholders favour is just 25% convert to shares,giving total number of shares on issue 86,833,868 ..
    Currently 4-traders are showing eps in 2019 to be 28.6 cps.
    I am near them with 28.91cps with 75% conversion,and well ahead of them with 29.67 on 50% conversion,and even further ahead on 30.6 on only 25% conversion..
    So eps growth of either 5% or 7.8% or 11.1%..Very positive is 4-traders year on year increase in dividend per share of over 6% per year for the next three years.
    What I, and the analysts covering Turners, have not factored in are any property development profits.These could add another 10% to 20% to TRA's net profit each year for the next few years.
    Very large developments in both Auckland and ChCh are forecast by Turners.
    Last edited by percy; 15-07-2018 at 09:19 AM.

  6. #2556
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Until we see how many note holders convert their notes to shares, or take cash, it is hard to figure out eps without knowing the number of shares that will be on issue.A number of people who own notes,are not natural share investors.
    Current shares on issue are 84,802,612.The bond issue is $26mil.
    Very rough figures on 50% conversion is 4,062,500 new shares, giving new total on issue 88.865,112.
    On 75% conversion is 6,093,750, giving new total on issue 90,996,362.
    What would work in shareholders favour is just 25% convert to shares,giving total number of shares on issue 86,833,868 ..
    Currently 4-traders are showing eps in 2019 to be 28.6 cps.
    I am near them with 28.91cps with 75% conversion,and well ahead of them with 29.67 on 50% conversion,and even further ahead on 30.6 on only 25% conversion..
    So eps growth of either 5% or 7.8% or 11.1%..Very positive is 4-traders year on year increase in dividend per share of over 6% per year for the next three years.
    What I, and the analysts covering Turners, have not factored in are any property development profits.These could add another 10% to 20% to TRA's net profit each year for the next few years.
    Very large developments in both Auckland and ChCh are forecast by Turners.
    Best guide in terms of percentage converting to shares is probably that we look at the last time this happened and in 2016 75% of bondholders elected to convert to shares.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2557
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Best guide in terms of percentage converting to shares is probably that we look at the last time this happened and in 2016 75% of bondholders elected to convert to shares.
    At the Christchurch presentation we were told that one big bond holder is definitely not converting their bonds to shares. We weren't told who it was though! In light of that, Aaron Saunders mentioned some likely conversion rates. However, I can't remember what he said specifically :-(

    SNOOPY

    P.S. I should add that most of the previous new capital raised at bond maturity was used as 'base capital', because of which it became possible to increase the loan book. But some was set aside for property development. I expect the expanded loan book in the future will make up for any initial eps dilution that happens on bond conversion date.
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-07-2018 at 02:21 PM.
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  8. #2558
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    At the Christchurch presentation we were told that one big bond holder is definitely not converting their bonds to shares. We weren't told who it was though! In light of that, Aaron Saunders mentioned some likely conversion rates. However, I can't remember what he said specifically :-(

    SNOOPY
    They are also issuing new bonds, I presume that the bond holders can roll over into the new ones if they want as well?

  9. #2559
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    Yes a bit vague on timing of new bigger non -convertible bond issue, to be announced before present one expires/converts,where existing bond holders can roll over.Interest rate a lot lower than present issue.
    Conversion rate,was 75% with last issue.... Aaron said they expect 50% to 80% to convert bonds to shares this time.
    Last edited by percy; 15-07-2018 at 02:36 PM.

  10. #2560
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    At the Auckland meeting they gave the clear impression the new issue is unlikely to contain a conversion element to it and is unlikely to happen until a couple / few months after conversion of the old issue. I think people will face the choice of cash back or shares at 5% discount to vwap with no right or preference to the new bond issue. I'll be converting my modest stake in the bonds to shares. When this happens Turners will comprise ~ 10% of my portfolio and I have no plans to raise my stake beyond that level.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-07-2018 at 03:18 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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