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  1. #3931
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    All old news.
    An update on current trading would be welcomed.
    Not known for giving too many updates between the half and full year announcements

    No news is good news I reckon ....things are not as bad as some think.

    If there is an update it’ll probably be for bad news
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  2. #3932
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    All old news.
    An update on current trading would be welcomed.
    Give them a call Percy, you're the company spokesman on here
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #3933
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm - did anybody notice anything new in this report (but the more detailled financials)? It just seems to reiterate the exact statements made at the time of the HY results in November 2018.

    A bit sad that they don't even seem to make a comment on the performance of Q3 (at least I didn't find any). Come on guys, we are now in Q4 and even if they haven't yet completed the numbers for Q3 they for sure would know which direction the sales and margins went ...
    I noticed, but this is not new, that TRA operational cashflow is negative. I also noticed that the companies equity per share is reducing. Than I notice that the company is likely to earn less PBT than expected previously. The other thing I noticed is the company expects to pay 17 cents per share dividend.
    Than I noticed that this does not make sense to me, something will change, maybe not this year.
    The most likely change I think will be a reduced future dividend.

  4. #3934
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    Quote Originally Posted by forest View Post
    I noticed, but this is not new, that TRA operational cashflow is negative. I also noticed that the companies equity per share is reducing. Than I notice that the company is likely to earn less PBT than expected previously. The other thing I noticed is the company expects to pay 17 cents per share dividend.
    Than I noticed that this does not make sense to me, something will change, maybe not this year.
    The most likely change I think will be a reduced future dividend.
    I think I wanted to point to the lack of an updated big picture statement and explicitly excluded the detailled financeials ... but fair enough.

    The way you "color" it sounds however quite negative. So, yes - they are $1m cash negative. However - they invested nearly $6m this year in fixed assets and intangibles. Do you assume they need to do this every year? If this was a one off, they have next time plenty of cash to play with.

    As well - if we assume their cashburn is constant, than they still would have more than a decade to go before they run out. If they need that long to implement their strategy, than I certainly would worry.

    Looking at EPS - it went up from 13.2 cps in 1 HY18 to 15.4 cps in 1HY19 (admittedly - I took these numbers out of the report and didn't check on which basis they calculated the numbers of issued shares) - but even if they creatively worked with averages ... and even if NPAT drops by 10% or so ... not quite sure where the problem would be to pay per HY a 8 (or 8.5) cts dividend.
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    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #3935
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    Cash flow.
    If you considered TRA were a car sales company,or shoe retailer you could be right to worry about negative cash flow.
    If you consider TRA to be a financial/insurance services company you could be wrong to worry about negative cash flow.
    Seem to remember posters needlessly getting worked up about HGH being cash flow negative some time ago.
    Last edited by percy; 09-01-2019 at 06:13 PM.

  6. #3936
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I think I wanted to point to the lack of an updated big picture statement and explicitly excluded the detailled financeials ... but fair enough.

    The way you "color" it sounds however quite negative. So, yes - they are $1m cash negative. However - they invested nearly $6m this year in fixed assets and intangibles. Do you assume they need to do this every year? If this was a one off, they have next time plenty of cash to play with.

    As well - if we assume their cashburn is constant, than they still would have more than a decade to go before they run out. If they need that long to implement their strategy, than I certainly would worry.

    Looking at EPS - it went up from 13.2 cps in 1 HY18 to 15.4 cps in 1HY19 (admittedly - I took these numbers out of the report and didn't check on which basis they calculated the numbers of issued shares) - but even if they creatively worked with averages ... and even if NPAT drops by 10% or so ... not quite sure where the problem would be to pay per HY a 8 (or 8.5) cts dividend.

    Yes as you say $1m cash negative, add to that $16m extra bank loan and nearly $9m proceeds of property etc and it adds up to $26mil in 6 months.

    Now it is not looking so pretty.

  7. #3937
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Cash flow.
    If you considered TRA were a car sales company,or shoe retailer you could be right to worry about negative cash flow.
    If you consider TRA to be a financial/insurance services company you could be wrong to worry about negative cash flow.
    Seem to remember posters needlessly getting worked up about HGH being cash flow negative some time ago.
    I would agree with you Percy if the equity per share went up, like we had with HBL the last 4 years.

    In TRA case this metrics is not going in share holders favour.

    Maybe TRA should be given more time to proof itself but the trend is not that encouraging to me.

  8. #3938
    percy
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    Shareholders equity has improved in the past year from 32.25% to 33.02%.
    Total assets have increased to $658,193 from $622,372.while shareholders' equity has increased from $200,736 to $217,347.
    All the time assets such as the "new" Wiri site has most probably doubled in value since TRA brought the site.
    The Turners and BuyRight sites have expanded,while the insurance business has bulked up.The finance business has added 120 or more originators.
    The business is in great shape,and the directors wisdom of bulking up all parts of the business is proving to be sound.Vertically intregrated business,with strong brands.

  9. #3939
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.marketscreener.com/TURNE...14/financials/
    EPS Actual earnings for the FY2018 28.9 cps
    EPS Forecast Analyst average FY19 26.7
    EPS Forecast Analyst average FY20 24.8
    EPS Forecast Analyst average FY21 27.9

    Average analyst forecasts do not suggest the business is in great shape in terms of eps growth...anything but.

    Share price has gone nowhere, (actually backwards in the last 4 years) and there's nothing in those broker forecasts that would indicate a dramatic turnaround anytime soon.

    I am sure someone will try and put a positive "spin" on those forecasted numbers but investors might like to consider how long said investor has been talking this up and what's actually happened to the share price in recent years and make up their own minds.

    Nobody talks about the rise and rise of Trade Me stealing market share off physical stores...
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #3940
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    ...and forest might point out that net debt has increased from $238m to $306m in same period that Percy used for assets and equity
    Last edited by winner69; 09-01-2019 at 08:01 PM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  11. #3941
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.marketscreener.com/TURNE...14/financials/
    EPS Actual earnings for the FY2018 28.9 cps
    EPS Forecast Analyst average FY19 26.7
    EPS Forecast Analyst average FY20 24.8
    EPS Forecast Analyst average FY21 27.9

    Average analyst forecasts do not suggest the business is in great shape in terms of eps growth...anything but.

    Share price has gone nowhere, (actually backwards in the last 4 years) and there's nothing in those broker forecasts that would indicate a dramatic turnaround anytime soon.

    I am sure someone will try and put a positive "spin" on those forecasted numbers but investors might like to consider how long said investor has been talking this up and what's actually happened to the share price in recent years and make up their own minds.

    Nobody talks about the rise and rise of Trade Me stealing market share off physical stores...
    I look at Turners like starting a winery.Takes a few years for the grapes to produce,and then time to sell.
    Turners have built up the foundations for a great business.
    Trade Me is used by Turners and most vehicle sellers,yet Turners find car buyers still like to visit car yards,and that is why Turners are expanding their footprint.

  12. #3942
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ...and forest might point out that net debt has increased from $238m to $306m in same period that Percy used for assets and equity
    And what has the debt been used for.?
    It has been used to expand sites,buy sites,finance and insurance receivables.ie building the business.
    All the time gaining Turners market share.
    Last edited by percy; 09-01-2019 at 08:07 PM.

  13. #3943
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    And what has the debt been used for.?
    It has been used to expand sites,finance and insurance receivables.ie building the business.
    "........and pay exorbitant dividends?
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  14. #3944
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    "........and pay exorbitant dividends?
    Now that statement depends whether you hold TRA or not.!

  15. #3945
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ...and forest might point out that net debt has increased from $238m to $306m in same period that Percy used for assets and equity
    You know W69 in 1990 you could have brought EBO for under $3mil......
    Today debt has blown out to over $2 billion.
    Rather a stupid arguement?

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