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  1. #2651
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Unless they get even cheaper Clear breakdown through the 100 day MA now. Every time lately someone is brave enough to put up a decent volume bid it gets smashed. Hmmmm, make what you will of that...but I for one am not feeling especially brave with this one right at the minute. Maybe it'll test $2.80 again ?
    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    You could be right Beagle, $2.96 just got smashed, bid depth is atrocious, time to stop nibbling me thinks.
    If it bounces at $2.95 the uptrend channel stays intact - and volume on the down side is pathetic. Less than $50 k went through today. So far I am optimistic, but sure - you never know.

    Question is - if it breaks through the $2.95, how much further down can it go given the amazing fundamentals?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #2652
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    If it bounces at $2.95 the uptrend channel stays intact - and volume on the down side is pathetic. Less than $50 k went through today. So far I am optimistic, but sure - you never know.

    Question is - if it breaks through the $2.95, how much further down can it go given the amazing fundamentals?
    ‘Amazing fundamentals’ — bit subjective eh BP

    Not like you to be that way
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #2653
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ‘Amazing fundamentals’ — bit subjective eh BP

    Not like you to be that way
    I'm sure BP will agree with the Couta relativity theorum on this one which says the price should be $3.83-$4 relative to CMO.
    Last edited by couta1; 17-08-2018 at 03:41 PM.

  4. #2654
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    If it bounces at $2.95 the uptrend channel stays intact - and volume on the down side is pathetic. Less than $50 k went through today. So far I am optimistic, but sure - you never know.

    Question is - if it breaks through the $2.95, how much further down can it go given the amazing fundamentals?
    My bloodhound nose smells a rat.
    1. Despite a fulsome national roadshow and being talked up almost ad nauseum it can't hold $3.
    2. The split up of the Baker boys empire and distribution of shares to individual shareholders nominated accounts suggests there could have been fundamental differences in how those guys see Turners prospects and one could have been a major seller in recent times.
    3. Every time in recent weeks anyone is brave enough to put up a decent sized bid it gets smashed.
    4. The paucity of depth on the buy side is an ongoing concern.
    5. Clear break down through 100 day MA
    I give this even money on testing $2.80 again.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #2655
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    The Rainbow Moving Average thing on yahoo charts is pretty cool

    And there’s a ZigZag thingie to .....TRA now in down zig or zag
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #2656
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm sure BP will agree with the Couta relativity theorum on this one which says the price should be $3.83-$4 relative to CMO.
    Or should we flip that around and ask what price CMO should be relative to the current price of TRA?

    Disc: love my CMO dividends

  7. #2657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    My bloodhound nose smells a rat.
    1. Despite a fulsome national roadshow and being talked up almost ad nauseum it can't hold $3.
    2. The split up of the Baker boys empire and distribution of shares to individual shareholders nominated accounts suggests there could have been fundamental differences in how those guys see Turners prospects and one could have been a major seller in recent times.
    3. Every time in recent weeks anyone is brave enough to put up a decent sized bid it gets smashed.
    4. The paucity of depth on the buy side is an ongoing concern.
    5. Clear break down through 100 day MA
    I give this even money on testing $2.80 again.
    Yes, I am concerned as well. How many companies need to go on a road show to sell/support their story ? But against that....the numbers seem compelling. Decision time coming up for me with respect to conversion of my bonds. Do I nearly double my holding...or .?. I guess Percy would still take them from me !

  8. #2658
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    The Rainbow Moving Average thing on yahoo charts is pretty cool

    And there’s a ZigZag thingie to .....TRA now in down zig or zag
    Looks to me as though it is both..!!!...lol.

  9. #2659
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Yes, I am concerned as well. How many companies need to go on a road show to sell/support their story ? But against that....the numbers seem compelling. Decision time coming up for me with respect to conversion of my bonds. Do I nearly double my holding...or .?. I guess Percy would still take them from me !
    I am happy to see Turners' 5.27% net yield has now over taken Heartland's 5.20% net yield.
    Happy days.

  10. #2660
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ‘Amazing fundamentals’ — bit subjective eh BP

    Not like you to be that way
    Subjective? not really. Just thought we discussed the fundamentals already to death, but maybe its time to repeat them. Here are the key parameters again (updated for a market close of $2.94 - Ouch):

    forward PE (3 years forward - EPS estimates from 4-traders): 9.5;
    forward EPS CAGR (3 years forward, 4 years back): 21.9;

    backward EPS CAGR actually still better: 26.4;

    PEG: 0.43; (and yes, I do call this amazing) ... but sure - "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr).

    However, from where I stand would I think that the NZ used car market will get a strong push into the arm thanks to all these recent two digit pay rises in combination with rapid rise of fuel cost (and I am sure we will see more of both of them).

    Obviously - lots of things can go wrong in the real world if you think they go right, but than - lots of things can go right when the market thinks they go wrong ;

    Anyway - time will tell. Spring is nigh - increasing market demand. Good time for car sellers.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 17-08-2018 at 08:50 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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