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  1. #2671
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I've been adding to my original holding since $3.13 until yesterday, I must admit I never thought it would drop back down to these levels after such a strong report plus the roadshows. My Gutometer says the market is wrong and the current price is nonsense however I'm not buying any more until things settle down. PS-Buying a downtrend is sometimes a very profitable move long term eg HLG.
    You are not alone.
    Since the result I brought more.
    More importantly so did both The Chairman and the CEO.
    I expect they know the business better than us.?

  2. #2672
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Concentrate on the business.
    Think about what was said at the presentations.
    Did it make sense to you or not.?
    Good research means you have no need for brave or happy pills.
    Growing dividends means you can spend your money on other things.
    I may even use part of my huge HBL divie,due 21st September,to buy a few TRA.?.
    Then again I may buy a few more HBL.....Fun times...lol.
    Good post. I need a holiday...been overworked and sick. Believe me I know how the CFO of THL feels but I simply cannot take any more sick leave at present.
    Factually I think from a fundamental viewpoint this is a good buy under $3 but as Couta1 suggests the prudent thing to do appears to be to see where it settles first.
    Vitamin D supplements can provide a much needed boost over winter. In case its not already obvious, I have run out of them lol
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-08-2018 at 12:15 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #2673
    percy
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    Two Kiwi fruit before breakfast.
    At work do all the easy jobs first.
    Half an hour nap after lunch.
    Short walk at 4 pm.
    Take time out of the market.ie just half an hour in the morning and half an hour after your walk.
    Try to imagen you don't mind if the market closes down for a year or two.
    Last edited by percy; 18-08-2018 at 12:37 PM.

  4. #2674
    Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Two Kiwi fruit before breakfast.
    Half an hour nap after lunch.
    Short walk at 4 pm.
    Take time out of the market.ie just half an hour in the morning and half an hour after your walk.
    Try to imagen you don't mind if the market closes down for a year or two.
    Don't say that Percy, if the market closes down for a year or two, Beagle and I will be admitted to a Psychiatric unit(Well in my case I will just move into the one I do some work at)

  5. #2675
    percy
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    QUOTE=couta1;725239]Don't say that Percy, if the market closes down for a year or two, Beagle and I will be admitted to a Psychiatric unit(Well in my case I will just move into the one I do some work at)[/QUOTE]

    Your sure he is not headed there with the market open.?
    Nice and handy for you.Great having friends in the trade.??……………….lol.

  6. #2676
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Don't say that Percy, if the market closes down for a year or two, Beagle and I will be admitted to a Psychiatric unit(Well in my case I will just move into the one I do some work at)
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2677
    Advanced Member
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    Kerikeri
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    All,
    Thanks for all the posts which are helping me to decide whether or not to convert my bonds.
    Looking at dates with respect to this.
    Need to return Conversion Notice by 30 August 18
    Maturity Date. 30 Sept 18
    Conversion Price: Volume weighted price for the 90 days prior to 30 Sept 18.
    So there is some unknown risk for the month of September. If the SP drops further during this month, and maybe the volume is light, then the conversion price might not be attractive.

    On balance...I am thinking I may just redeem the bonds. And choose to buy more stock or not. This is not the outcome I expected when I invested in the bonds. However I did consider that it might be an option. And I am more than happy with the return I have received on the bonds I have held.

    Around 10 days to decide.

  8. #2678
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Updated indicative estimated 90 VWAP inclusive of 5% discount based on data to date

    Conversion notice must be received by the registry by 5.00 p.m. 30 August 2018.

    Conversion is based on 5% discount to 90 day VWAP in the 90 days leading up to conversion, i.e. 1 July to 30 September trading.
    I brought up the chart since 1 July and looked at volume and prices traded since 1 July.
    1 July to 31 July. Stock traded down commencing the month at $3.20 and ending at $3.10. Low volume most of the month but big volume days (for TRA) were noted during the month as 430K at $3.20 and 200K at $3.15.

    August has seen the SP open at $3.10 and trade down to $2.94 with big volume days for this lightly traded share noted as 400K at $3.05 and $800K at $3.03.

    I don't have access to the full detail that the independent party appointed by Turners will have but based on what I can see the weighted average price to date taking into account the 5% discount, my best updated estimate is $2.945. Obviously so far the 5% discount is useless as it closed at $2.94 with more stock offered at that price and best bid $2.91 from memory.
    Price and volume traded between now and 30 September relative to price and volume traded 1 July to date will be what determines the final price, unknown.

    Allowing a safe 3 days for snail mail delivery to the registry, (4 if you live in some parts of rural N.Z.) most investors need to decide by 27 August or courier or hand deliver to the registry on 30 August. If there is significant volume, (obviously the major factor) I will update my estimated VWAP price based on ongoing data to 27 August to help bondholders get as much visibility as possible.

    Asking for the cash back is looking like the best option at this stage especially given the clear dowmward SP momentum over the last month and a half and clear breech of the 100 day MA and $3.00 resistance level more recently.

    TA as mentioned looks awful but keeping an open mind this could well be due to the fact that many bondholders are also shareholders and some like me have sold down their shares in anticipation of the conversion.

    Another look at the FA. Based on the mid point of their forecast $35m NPBT, less their average corporate tax rate last year 25% gives $26.25m NPAT.
    Assuming half bondholders covert to shares it would appear weighted average number of shares for FY19 is going to be approx. 87m which gives 30.2 cps up from 28.87 cps based on a much lower weighted average number of shares on issue last year. Forecast FY19 EPS growth is thus by my estimate 4.6%.

    At $2.945, the estimated conversion rate based on data to date and estimated earnings of 30.2 cps TRA are on a forward PE of 9.75.
    How does this compare with the only other listed vehicle retailer, Colonial Motors ?
    Due to report this coming week and I am estimating approx. 80 cps up from 72 cps last year. I have them on a (historical, not forward) PE of 10.
    Colonial motors celebrate their 100th year in business this year. I will leave you to decide for yourself if TRA is cheap or not on a FA basis relative to Colonial Motors taking into account their respective business models are in many ways quite different.

    Hope the above helps bondholders decide for themselves.

    Why are Colonial Motors and Turners so cheap on a fundamental basis ?
    One possible explanation is that Millennials often see smartphone's as more valuable than cars from a social connectivity point of view and ownership patterns of vehicles could be changing with widespread electric vehicle sharing scheme's not that far away...some are here already https://www.yoogoshare.co.nz/business-use-new/
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-08-2018 at 02:35 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #2679
    Veteran novice
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    Why are Colonial Motors and Turners so cheap on a fundamental basis ?
    My impression over the 40+ years that I've been interested in such things has been that Colonial Motors has almost always been cheap on fundamentals. Something to do with perceived as being a boring old income stock with limited growth prospects?

  10. #2680
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    My impression over the 40+ years that I've been interested in such things has been that Colonial Motors has almost always been cheap on fundamentals. Something to do with perceived as being a boring old income stock with limited growth prospects?
    Nothing to do with:
    Chair..... J Gibbons
    Director...G.Gibbons.
    Director.. S.Gibbons.
    CEO...…….G.Gibbons
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.?.
    CMO owned Hutchinson Motors Christchurch.
    CEOs.O Hutchinson,...…………………......Grandfather
    ………...O.A.Hutchinson………………………..Son.
    ………….J.Hutchinson, current CEO...…...Grandson.
    Last edited by percy; 19-08-2018 at 05:05 PM.

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