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  1. #2761
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Yeap, I'm ignoring this latest business pessimism survey out today saying things are at their worst since the depth of the GFC...survey was taken before Jacinda started schmoozing with Chris Luxon...our man Chris will sort her out and they looked great on telly together the other night.

    Vast majority of Turners sales are not discretionary or to business anyway so everything is okay now.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2762
    percy
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    The results season has produced excellent results,with positive outlooks.
    Unemployment remains low.
    Interest rates remain low.
    Spring is in the air,and people will be buying used vehicles.
    Turners are here to help those people;Vehicles,finance,insurance,service.
    Last edited by percy; 30-08-2018 at 04:20 PM.

  3. #2763
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Bet it was the low rent one like you and I got Snoops. Doubt they bound Percy's one specially for him.
    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I received the cheap report.
    My cheap report started falling to bits today. I was probably doing something unusual that most shareholders would not do though. I was reading it!

    Failing to have a stapler big enough, I might have to go into town tomorrow and get it professionally rebound. I might even laminate the front and back covers for good measure. In years to come it might be the only AR2018 report to survive! During the year I like to stick relevant documents into it. Things like letters from Todd, and the next half year report. So I actually do need it to stick together.

    I am all for Turners innovating. But I wouldn't have thought making a 100 page report colour copied on both sides was cheap. I don't have a colour copier myself. But if I did such a copy at the library it would cost me $100! I reckon the cost price would be $50. Or am I just out of touch with the cost of copying today?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 30-08-2018 at 06:00 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  4. #2764
    percy
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    Spend the big money.Get it leather bound.
    The more you spend,the more you will appreciate it.
    Should you wear it out,by over fondling it, you can go on line and print off another one.…..lol.

    ps.I have now moved on from last year, and am getting very excited waiting for the half year result late November.
    Their outlook has been very positive, and I have no doubt they will deliver the goods.
    pps.Talking about delivering the goods, we will get another fully imputed divie before the half year announcement.
    Wonder how much this one will be.?
    Last edited by percy; 31-08-2018 at 06:49 AM.

  5. #2765
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I make a point of not taking any Turners result at face value. It seems inevitable that once you delve into the results something comes out a bit smelly. And so it has proved with the FY2018 result. The key to 'cleaning out the garbage' is once again found under note 7 (the detail of the 'Profit Before Tax', and in particular the section marked 'Other Income'..

    There you will find a very significant figure of $2.664m which is a 'Fair Value Gain on Contingent Consideration.'

    Say what??? If there is a heading you can't understand, it often pays to look under the general heading of 'insurance' for further clarification. That took the nose of this hound to p76, and the heading 'Insurance Contracts' threw up the following detail.

    Change in Discount rate 3.08% to 2.61% (Insurance Contracts) -$0.120m
    Difference between Actual and Assumed Experience(Insurance Contracts) $2.491m
    Difference between Actual and Assumed Experience (Life Investments) $2.491m
    Total $2.665m

    Within the bounds of the third decimal place rounding error, this is in agreement with the $2.664m which is a 'Fair Value Gain on Contingent Consideration.' I don't think this is a co-incidence. While this extra profit is real, I believe it is due to the ups and downs of markets and/or settlements of insurance contracts. These kinds of gains are not sustainable year to year. So the underlying profit for TRA was significantly less than the headline figure quoted. The same can be said for the money made on the 'revaluation gains on investments', 'revaluation gain on investment property' and the 'gain on sale of property plant and equipment'. In my judgement the actual comparable net profit gain, the figure that should be used when comparing results from year to year should be adjusted from the headline figure as follows:

    Operating Net Profit = $23.192m - 0.72x$2.664m - ($0.590m+$0.820m+$1.000m) = $19.085m which is 18% lower than the headline figure.

    With 84.802m shares on issue at balance date this equates to 'earnings per share' of 22.5cps

    At today's trading price of $2.94, this puts TRA on an historical PE of 13.0

    That looks 'about right' and shows that at under $3, TRA may not be quite the bargain that some think. Maybe Mr Market knows what he is doing after all?

    The other element that must be factored into the 'profit growth' is the ever increasing number of shares on issue. I have added this information into the table below via an 'earnings per share' calculation..

    FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
    NPAT (Turners Limited) (A) $3.823m $8.595m $15.332m $16.789m $19.085m
    Shareholder Equity (Turners Auctions :TUA) $13.378mm
    Shareholder Equity (Dorchester Pacific: DPC) $74.052m
    Shareholder Equity (Turners Limited: TNR) $121.002m $129.812m $171.716m $214.323m
    Total Combined Shareholder Equity (B) $92.430m $121.002m $129.812m $171.716m $214.323m
    Shares on Issue EOFY {C} NM 63.077m 63.431m 74.524m 84.802m
    eps {A}/{C} NM 13.6c 24.2c 21.8c 22.5c
    Return On Equity (A)/(B) 4.1% 7.1% 11.8% 9.8% 8.9%

    Note: I have also now normalized the tax treatment of the FY2015 result, as this gives a better basis for comparison.

    It is interesting to see that while share price has gone nowhere over the last two years neither has Operating NPAT. And that correlation might not be a co-incidence!

    SNOOPY
    Big week on the NZX but TNR doesn't even give a small yelp.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #2766
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Big week on the NZX but TNR doesn't even give a small yelp.
    I wonder why ..

  7. #2767
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I have now moved on from last year, and am getting very excited waiting for the half year result late November.
    Their outlook has been very positive, and I have no doubt they will deliver the goods.
    I think you make a good point. Notwithstanding any unusual items for FY18 that needed a thorough forensic analysis, (thank you Snoopy), their FY19 forecast is in the market and represents a forward PE of just 9.7 on 30 cps earnings. Not sure the company is capable of forecasting unusual items so I am going to assume this forecast is ordinary earnings so the shares are fundamentally very good value.
    Looking at the yield I have trimmed my expectations slightly to 55% of 30 cps = 16.5 cps for FY19. Grossing this up for full imputation credits gives (16.5 / 0.72) = 22.92 cps. On a SP of just $2.92 this gives a forecast yield of 7.85%.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #2768
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I think you make a good point. Notwithstanding any unusual items for FY18 that needed a thorough forensic analysis, (thank you Snoopy), their FY19 forecast is in the market and represents a forward PE of just 9.7 on 30 cps earnings. Not sure the company is capable of forecasting unusual items so I am going to assume this forecast is ordinary earnings so the shares are fundamentally very good value.
    Looking at the yield I have trimmed my expectations slightly to 55% of 30 cps = 16.5 cps for FY19. Grossing this up for full imputation credits gives (16.5 / 0.72) = 22.92 cps. On a SP of just $2.92 this gives a forecast yield of 7.85%.
    Thank you for sharing.
    I am not sure what to expect.
    I did note when their result was announced,[with the unusual items] they were very quick to give outlook guidance.
    This guidance is interesting, as it is higher than the two analysts' who cover TRA.
    I would guess Turners directors and management know their business,including trading outlook better than the analysts,so the interim result will confirm who is right.
    Your 16.5 cps divie is 1 cent higher than current year's 15.5 cps, ie a 6.5% increase,which I am sure is attainable.

  9. #2769
    Banned
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    Hey come on guys, your forgetting to mention the near dollar increase in SP over the next year.PS-I know it sounds optimistic but watch this space(Not too often though)

  10. #2770
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Bond Issue Product Disclosure Statement

    https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/s...ust%202018.pdf

    Might defer to the other hounds thoughts on this one as he seems to have more time to get his snout deeper into these sort of things.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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