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  1. #3151
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    This Turners board would be the envy of a great many companies.
    I am most impressed.They have laid strong foundations for a great company.[it will show in a year or two]
    Paul Byrne in particular. He was offcourse Hugh Green's appointment.
    Right. Time for me to be a Perky Polly.

    Kudos to this board. After two years they have nearly succeeded in returning the share price to Oct 2016 levels.

    Give yourselves a payrise - its well earnt.


    As for you Negative Nelly's - step back from the keyboard. SP is so low no there is only one way for it to go and that is up.

  2. #3152
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    But wait there is more...…!!

    He did apologise for being an Australian...!!
    7
    Maybe taking diversity a bit too far.?
    What like about Berry is that he runs a venture capital outfit and no doubt has a great network across ANZ and Asia.



    This coupled with his successful track record of acquiring and selling several companies could be just Baker wants — his exit plan or maybe get somebody to them over

    Just speculation ..but you never know
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3153
    On the doghouse
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From AGM one thing they seemed awfully proud of was their active management of the insurance reserves they hold.

    One of the highest investment returns in the world the Insurance guy said

    Good while it works ......but some might say it’s not all the ‘prudent’ gambling with reserves

    Wonder how they invest these reserves to get world class returns?

    Maybe something for Snoopy to dig into
    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I make a point of not taking any Turners result at face value. It seems inevitable that once you delve into the results something comes out a bit smelly. And so it has proved with the FY2018 result. The key to 'cleaning out the garbage' is once again found under note 7 (the detail of the 'Profit Before Tax', and in particular the section marked 'Other Income'..

    There you will find a very significant figure of $2.664m which is a 'Fair Value Gain on Contingent Consideration.'

    Say what??? If there is a heading you can't understand, it often pays to look under the general heading of 'insurance' for further clarification. That took the nose of this hound to p76, and the heading 'Insurance Contracts' threw up the following detail.

    Change in Discount rate 3.08% to 2.61% (Insurance Contracts) -$0.120m
    Difference between Actual and Assumed Experience (Insurance Contracts) $2.491m
    Difference between Actual and Assumed Experience (Life Investments) $0.294m
    Total $2.665m

    Within the bounds of the third decimal place rounding error, this is in agreement with the $2.664m which is a 'Fair Value Gain on Contingent Consideration.' I don't think this is a co-incidence. While this extra profit is real, I believe it is due to the ups and downs of markets and/or settlements of insurance contracts. These kinds of gains are not sustainable year to year. So the underlying profit for TRA was significantly less than the headline figure quoted. The same can be said for the money made on the 'revaluation gains on investments', 'revaluation gain on investment property' and the 'gain on sale of property plant and equipment'. In my judgement the actual comparable net profit gain, the figure that should be used when comparing results from year to year should be adjusted from the headline figure as follows:

    Operating Net Profit = $23.192m - 0.72x$2.664m - ($0.590m+$0.820m+$1.000m) = $19.085m which is 18% lower than the headline figure.

    With 84.802m shares on issue at balance date this equates to 'earnings per share' of 22.5cps

    At today's trading price of $2.94, this puts TRA on an historical PE of 13.0
    Before this insurance gain discussion is forgotten, I want to point out that I have already taken the insurance portfolio performance out of the headline TRA result. This significantly reduces the earnings as declared and puts TRA on an historical PE of 13.0. It also means the modest increase in profitability that Turners look to book for FY2019 is actually quite a stretch target. Will they deliver? Time will tell!

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  4. #3154
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Before this insurance gain discussion is forgotten, I want to point out that I have already taken the insurance portfolio performance out of the headline TRA result. This significantly reduces the earnings as declared and puts TRA on an historical PE of 13.0. It also means the modest increase in profitability that Turners look to book for FY2019 is actually quite a stretch target. Will they deliver? Time will tell!

    SNOOPY
    So even with new share issuance last year my weighted average forecast eps growth of 4.5% expected for FY19 understates the normalized forecast weighted average EPS growth. Good snooping, Snoopy.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #3155
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    Having two directors based in Singapore seems a bit silly to me. Aside from the travelling and communication issues, this is a country where most people don't own a car and where there is almost no second hand car market.

    Maybe they will have some insights into the Australian expansion and the insurance business but is this enough? What do they know about the credit risk of Turners working class customers in Wellington, Hawkes Bay or Auckland?

    Good question for the next AGM, someone ask a director when the last time they bought a second hand car was (either for themselves or someone else).

    Maybe Winner is right and the focus will be on taking the company private or selling it?

  6. #3156
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    So the cheap shares are $2.85

    Well done on picking them up
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #3157
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  8. #3158
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    I reckon it could be around the mid or high $2.80's
    When do we know what the price is and do the shares get issued again?
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...698/287842.pdf

    Bond conversion price set at $2.85 and shares issued. I'm happy with that, cheaper price than I expected.
    Last edited by Beagle; 01-10-2018 at 04:12 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #3159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...698/287842.pdf

    Bond conversion price set at $2.85 and shares issued. I'm happy with that, cheaper price than I expected.
    Yeah me too but mine come on market tomorrow....

  10. #3160
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Checked the share register and shares have been applied to my name, checked the bank and interest for the quarter has been credited and now I'm looking forward to the quarterly dividend in about a month or so. Good day to be a former bondholder...its been a long time between drinks though.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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