TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Nitaa]

The melt down continues.. the difficult thing about investing in this type of stock is how good is their cash flow and how bad are the loan defaulters. That i am afraid is the big unknown. Too many companys now how to make a profit but still go bankrupt

[dsurf]

Dont need to change your mind Dsurf. If you dont like it, then stay well clear of it. Maybe you can sleep better at nights. This stock is for people with large steel balls that dont need to sleep and have a $2,000 Italian coffee maker in the kitchen.

Do I hear clang clang - now at 47c - you can post me a cheque anytime if you feel like giving money away.

[Stranger_Danger]

Dsurf,

After talking about the massive collapse to 47 cents on $284 of trades, are you now going to discuss the quick recovery to 50 cents on a major, twice as big nearly, $500 of trades?

[Dr_Who]

Do I hear clang clang - now at 47c - you can post me a cheque anytime if you feel like giving money away.

LOL.. hey Surfy, whats ya postal address? I will post you a chq for 47 cents or you wanna go through paypal?

[golden city]

I was wondering how brent king feels.., when the price droped to 47 cents, and bio droped to 2.7 cents

[dsurf]

Dsurf,

After talking about the massive collapse to 47 cents on $284 of trades, are you now going to discuss the quick recovery to 50 cents on a major, twice as big nearly, $500 of trades?

47c meani it broke 50c doesn't it?

[BlackPeter]

just came across the latest DPC business update ...

(check http://www.dorchester.co.nz/About-Do...enuId/186.aspx

Looks pretty good to me - still plenty of cash reserves ($30M). If we assume that they don't publish plain lies - can anybody explain to me what all the fuss is about?

[Steve]

I'm very comfortable in knowing that Dorchester no longer own Direct Broking...

[Nitaa]

Excuse my ignorance.I could open the pdf file from the computer i as using. Here are some questions i would ask.

If they have $30m is cash reserves or equivilant then why did they need to borrow $20m. Is there something i missed? Did they sell a big asset or something?

It has a market cap of $17m. Something doesnt add up and smells funny. Whats going on? A fanastic bargin at todays prices or anothander finance company on the brink?

Meanwhile, the trend is still down.

Watching with interest.

[dsurf]

just came across the latest DPC business update ...

(check http://www.dorchester.co.nz/About-Do...enuId/186.aspx

Looks pretty good to me - still plenty of cash reserves ($30M). If we assume that they don't publish plain lies - can anybody explain to me what all the fuss is about?

OK - ask yourself what they are not saying or what they are really saying - I willl translate since this company has been talking utter shyte for so long. Quotes are from the marketing update.

1/ "Since our last update in early December we have been focusing on the three key platforms that I believe will position the company for the future - refocus, strengthen and
simplify."

refocus = what we did last time is not working - we got it wrong or we were not focused last time but now we are - it is all different - we have learnt from our unfocused past


strengthen = we are in weak position even though we are making a big deal about having 30m in cash or equivalents - How much is cash & what are the equivalents? If the equivalents include shares - which companies & when were they marked to market. The devil is always in the detail so don't ruin our marketing by giving details!!!

Simplify = we have a lot of loss making operations that were bad business decisions to get into. This resulted from our unfocused strategy

2/ "I have made a commitment to communicate with our investors openly and honestly so that you can fully appreciate the fundamentals of our business and its future direction."

The fundamentals are not reported - what is the re-investment rate, how many loans are in arrears, is the loan book growing or shrinking, etc etc

The future direction is to strengthen, refocus and simplify - fantastic direction which I am very appreciative of

3/ "As our loans are being collected more promptly and efficiently this has resulted in a reduction in penalty fee income, which debtors pay on overdue loans. We have deliberately adopted this policy of securing full cash repayment as soon as possible as we believe that “cash in the bank” is prudent in the current market."

Translated to - our income is reducing, our loan book is reducing, our profitability is reducing

4/ "The process of simplifying our business is on going as we ensure that we are right-sized for the market and opportunities available to us. This is a natural consequence of the new environment, where we believe retail funding will continue at lower than historical levels."

Translated - our business model is outdated where we rely on retail funds. Because we were unfocused we have only just realised this. the business is shrinking because we are having to sell our assets to protect liquidity since our funding base is no longer available.

5/ To supplement this (retail funds) we are continuing to explore institutional funding lines, with several potential opportunities being developed.

There are no no concrete offers because we are in the middle of a credit crunch and we have acted far too slowly

6/ "Cash (and equivalents) represented 12% of Dorchester Finance’s total assets as at the end of February. Through March our cash position has remained consistently above $30 million."

So what - Are they making operating profit. Does it cover fixed costs. How long will it last

7/ "The Graphs"

Funding obligations within next 12 months = around 160m
Financial assets & cash equivalents = around 177m

177 - 160 = 17m which is the amount of bad loans that can be absorbed & liabilities will be <= assets.

17m / 160m = 10.6%

In other words as long as:

1 they are generating operating profits that cover fixed costs

and 2 Bad debts do not go over 10.6%

then there is no problem.

Of course what we really need to know is who the loan book is to, how much in cars, property businesses etc, how much is 1st priority debt & how much is 2nd priority debt. etc etc