TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[percy]

Pretty much agree.
One of the most important things is business is saying "We appear to have a problem".That said,what is the problemd? Next they fix it.
Successful companies I have invested in have said it....Ebos' Mark Waller said at one agm,"We are wasting our time in Australia,we either get big or get out." They got big.! Same with Mainfreight."We either fix it or get out".They fixed it.They are still fixing Europe and USA.They will.
So Turners problems.
Autosure.Problem of under costing of European cars,and over costing Japanese cars identified.So they know what the problem was and have adjusted their pricing.
MTF unsecured loans.Problem known.Turners now right at the start of the loan origination. Lending criteria tightened.Originators sorted.
BuyRight cars.Old stock.Problem known.Problem sorted.
Staff adjusting from auction to sales.Staff training is helping.[Interesting Turners management/staff certainly got on top of BuyRight cars quickly].
Previous problems.
Poor site for Truck sales at Wiri.Fixed with the fantastic site developed at 160 Roscommon Road.
Lack of penetration in Auckland.Sorted by buying BuyRight Cars.
Lack of Finance in South Island.Fixed buy buying a South Island Finance Company.
Future problems or opportunities.
Develop a major site in ChCh for Turners Car Sales.
Develop a major site in Auckland for Turners Car Sales.
Develop a number of Turners Car Sales in Auckland's North Shore.

[winner69]

Getting close to Winner's 'book value'.

I am not sure of the best way of calculating 'Return on Total Invested Capital'. I pulled this formula off the net.

'Return on Total Invested Capital' = (Net income - Dividends) / (Debt + Equity)

'Net Income' here represents 'Net Operational Income'. Don't count 'foreign exchange gains' and 'the sale of business units'. Dividends are removed from the calculation, because they are 'paid out' and not reinvested. However, I am struggling to see the value in such a calculation. Every shareholder is entitled to the dividend. So what is the purpose of a 'valuation calculation' that removes the principal 'compulsory benefit' of TRA share ownership?

SNOOPY

Snoops — told you not to believe everything you find on the net, especially most things bad from investopedia.com

Simplest formula is ROIC = (EBIT x (1-Tax Rate)) / (Equity + Debt)

[SCOTTY]

Pretty much agree.
One of the most important things is business is saying "We appear to have a problem".That said,what is the problemd? Next they fix it.
Successful companies I have invested in have said it....Ebos' Mark Waller said at one agm,"We are wasting our time in Australia,we either get big or get out." They got big.! Same with Mainfreight."We either fix it or get out".They fixed it.They are still fixing Europe and USA.They will.
So Turners problems.
Autosure.Problem of under costing of European cars,and over costing Japanese cars identified.So they know what the problem was and have adjusted their pricing.
MTF unsecured loans.Problem known.Turners now right at the start of the loan origination. Lending criteria tightened.Originators sorted.
BuyRight cars.Old stock.Problem known.Problem sorted.
Staff adjusting from auction to sales.Staff training is helping.[Interesting Turners management/staff certainly got on top of BuyRight cars quickly].
Previous problems.
Poor site for Truck sales at Wiri.Fixed with the fantastic site developed at 160 Roscommon Road.
Lack of penetration in Auckland.Sorted by buying BuyRight Cars.
Lack of Finance in South Island.Fixed buy buying a South Island Finance Company.
Future problems or opportunities.
Develop a major site in ChCh for Turners Car Sales.
Develop a major site in Auckland for Turners Car Sales.
Develop a number of Turners Car Sales in Auckland's North Shore.

Great work thanks Percy

[Beagle]

I think shareholders should pay little attention to the half year numbers. Much more important will be how the big picture is developing. Is 'Autosure' getting traction? Are bad debts really reducing as management hoped? Is market share holding up? How is the 'securitization of loans' going? These are the kind of things I will be looking to find out!

SNOOPY

Best guide to the near term future is the immediate past period. I think not paying attention to the numbers is absolute folly. The market is telling us through its clear downtrend for over a year from a high of ~ $3.90 down to less than $2.60 close yesterday, a fall of more than a third that there are some things that are not right with the business. I agree the market is always forward looking but I think it is foolish to ignore the immediate past as that gives you the very best guide to the short term future. Some people are conveniently overlooking the fact that those problematic / delinquent MTF loans will dog this company for at least this and the next two half year reporting periods.

They have a big site in Albany, I don't know how long the lease is or whether they own it but its a large site adjacent to the northern motorway and very poorly positioned in terms of attracting retail traffic. All good to talk about new sites and expansion but how many of these sort of more unfavorable sites do they have and how long does that legacy continue for ?

If the shares are such a raving bargain and the directors thought so when they were 30-40 cps higher why aren't they buying in decent or any volume now ?

[winner69]

Baker et al probably need to wait until next week before they are allowed to buy any more

Hope they keen as mustard ...and help me make my 20%/25% quick gain.

[winner69]

Best guide to the near term future is the immediate past period. I think not paying attention to the numbers is absolute folly. The market is telling us through its clear downtrend for over a year from a high of ~ $3.90 down to less than $2.60 close yesterday, a fall of more than a third that there are some things that are not right with the business. I agree the market is always forward looking but I think it is foolish to ignore the immediate past as that gives you the very best guide to the short term future. Some people are conveniently overlooking the fact that those problematic / delinquent MTF loans will dog this company for at least this and the next two half year reporting periods.

They have a big site in Albany, I don't know how long the lease is or whether they own it but its a large site adjacent to the northern motorway and very poorly positioned in terms of attracting retail traffic. All good to talk about new sites and expansion but how many of these sort of more unfavorable sites do they have and how long does that legacy continue for ?

If the shares are such a raving bargain and the directors thought so when they were 30-40 cps higher why aren't they buying in decent or any volume now ?

That guidance of $34-$36m (essentially no increase in eps);has been with us for some time now and been reaffirmed twice one would have to think no it’s a certainty

In saying that the market only thinks that $34-$36m is only worth $2.60 odd - a PE of 9 and high divie reflecting perceived risks etc.

The market has stopped voting and weighed it all up ....and it’s only worth what it’s worth today

But when the guidance is lifted and includes a $40m that will reflected in the share price - $3.22 here we come and that’s without being rerated

Jeez $3.22 - that’s my 25% profit ...cool

[Beagle]

Guidance lifted lol...you've been Percyerised
Just have another look at the chart, that might be the reality check you need.

[winner69]

Guidance lifted lol...you've been Percyerised
Just have another look at the chart, that might be the reality check you need.

Chart tells me it’s oversold and about to spike

[RTM]

That guidance of $34-$36m (essentially no increase in eps);has been with us for some time now and been reaffirmed twice one would have to think no it’s a certainty

In saying that the market only thinks that $34-$36m is only worth $2.60 odd - a PE of 9 and high divie reflecting perceived risks etc.

The market has stopped voting and weighed it all up ....and it’s only worth what it’s worth today

But when the guidance is lifted and includes a $40m that will reflected in the share price - $3.22 here we come and that’s without being rerated

Jeez $3.22 - that’s my 25% profit ...cool

Yes....and while you wait.....the dividend keeps being paid. Now...if the dividend was being decreased or stopped, then that would be a major concern. Disc. Down ~15%, will continue to hold and enjoy the div, not point in needlessly booking a loss.

[winner69]

Yes....and while you wait.....the dividend keeps being paid. Now...if the dividend was being decreased or stopped, then that would be a major concern. Disc. Down ~15%, will continue to hold and enjoy the div, not point in needlessly booking a loss.

Not going to wait too long for that $3.22 share price ....that will come soon

We’ll both be happy then ....you’ll be back in profit as well as collecting divies and I’ll be rapt taking my quick 25% profit.