TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Nitaa]

dsurf. good post and you are probably very accurate in your assessment.

Over the years i have become more very (call me cynical) of lack of true disclosure. When a company starts generalising about their position i begin to worry. What are they hiding/not telling the average investor. The mere fact they mention $30m cash or equivelant (what is the equivelant made up of) raises red flags.

On face value this stock looks a dead set bargin. Its only when you lok into it that there are concerns raised. It seems the further you dig, the more questions and copncerns are raised. Dsurf, you mention about their book value. is their business shrinking or growing. How much money do they have exposed to where. These are all pertainent questions.

For the sake of investors and a friend who invested heavily in this company i hope i am wrong.

Just my opinion of course all all investors should do their own research

[Hoop]

just came across the latest DPC business update ...

(check http://www.dorchester.co.nz/About-Do...enuId/186.aspx

Looks pretty good to me - still plenty of cash reserves ($30M). If we assume that they don't publish plain lies - can anybody explain to me what all the fuss is about?

The small finance sector is in an advanced bear market phase of its own and is at present still suffering from a prolonged capitulation phase (wave c). This segment is more advanced within it's bear market than the NZX index overall which is the "averaging" (weightings?) of the companies within differing sectors..
Some sectors within the overall market get clobbered more than others. Note that the energy segment of the NZX such as companies Pike and NZO is still in a bull market phase cycle.

Ok This Finance sector is suffering from a rather particular severe form of Bear ...this bear is very nasty, and it's destructive (an asset gobbler). Most finance companies have meagre NTA's... exception being DPC and so perhaps this is the reason for its severe mauling.

Bear market phases are notorious for their illogical behaviour..and results in unjustified terminations of companies as well as possible bargain buys of others.





So...2 questions.

Have we hit the bottom of this sector bear phase (the beginning of the U ???? ......
My personal feeling is no/maybe (negative). If/when the bottom is reached, expect a long lag to recovery (the U).

What financial companies will survive this bear ? Identification, so to re-invest at the middle of the U curve....DPC ? (the example given, as this is the DPC post thread)...............
All indications suggest yes. Against many commentators beliefs I believe in Chris Lee's comment that Management and the larger wealthy shareholders are DPC biggest strengths ...Management ability to quickly adapt to the changing landscape of the NZ financial secondary market and to its major wealthy shareholders who are willing to put their money into DPC at times of need.


Disc: no DPC..... on watchlist

[dsurf]

Agree that if this one survives then it will at some point in time worth buying. however it needs to build an extended base before I would dream of buying it.

The large shareholders are an asset and they have shown that they are willing to lend to DPC. They also want thier money back! What I can't resolve though is that are willing to lend to protect thier investment, but they are also saying that the investment is not worth having 100% of.

I strongly disagree that management have acted quickly. The finance crisis has been going on for well over 6 months and that was when they should have broadened the funding base.

Looks to me like HG has said "go and loan from someone else and prove this is a viable business still because I have better places to put my money"

[BlackPeter]

dsurf - Thanks for a good analysis and explanation. I agree that you hold a valid view point - and yes, the company management is probably not as good as it could be!

On the other hand - Paul Byrnes (company director and chartered accountant) just bought another 50.000 shares (@47 cents each). I would expect he knows how much these cash reserves are worth ...

cheers ...

[Hoop]

dsurf - Thanks for a good analysis and explanation. I agree that you hold a valid view point - and yes, the company management is probably not as good as it could be!

On the other hand - Paul Byrnes (company director and chartered accountant) just bought another 50.000 shares (@47 cents each). I would expect he knows how much these cash reserves are worth ...

cheers ...

Yes Paul Byrnes buy ins is very positive. It would confirm that at this stage Paul assumes that DPC will be a survivor and it's share price must be grossly underpriced for him to be buying in at a time of the rapidly falling shareprice.

Although it's nice to think Paul Byrnes knows what he doing...From the outside looking in it seems he is making mistakes.....mostly timing his buy ins. He's trying to catch that falling dagger...ouch! Maybe Phaedrus can give him some advice..

I guess its that old strategy of risk verses reward I mentioned in one of my posts earlier.

Is that announced future rights issue still on the agenda ????

[Steve]

Is that announced future rights issue still on the agenda ????

No doubt it will happen once the shareprice stabilises?

[COLIN]

No doubt it will happen once the shareprice stabilises?

Surely you mean IF?

[Billy Boy]

Assuming you had to buy......
Who would you buy ?
Hanover, Dorchester, or Dominion Finance and in which order.
Cheers BB

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Billy Boy Dorchester, Dominion Finance then Hanover

[Steve]

Currently I would say Dominion, Dorchester, Hanover...