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  1. #3421
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    Plenty to chew on for the TRA HY2019 result tomorrow.
    Looking forward to it. All the best fellas.

  2. #3422
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    o 28% increase in net profit after tax with strong outperformance from the insurance business offsetting a country-wide slowdown in the automotive retail sector

    o Further quarterly dividend of 4cps declared taking total half year dividends to 8cps

    o Continued focus on optimising real estate assets delivers $3.4m gain from the sale of Wiri holding

    o Industry-wide headwinds emerging in the automotive retail sector with a potential downside impact of 5 - 10% to forecasted FY19 pre-tax profits if current market conditions persist

    o On-Market Share Buyback of up to 5% of issued shares announced with current share price considered undervalued by Directors
    Last edited by minimoke; 27-11-2018 at 07:47 AM. Reason: formatting

  3. #3423
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    OMG ....A PROFIT DOWNGRADE


    Industry-wide headwinds emerging in the automotive retail sector with a potential downside impact of 5 - 10% to forecasted FY19 pre-tax profits if current market conditions persist


    No wonder Todd didn’t want to answer Beagles question about how things were going

    Hope punters gloss over that bit ....it’s only a possibilityeh
    Last edited by winner69; 27-11-2018 at 07:54 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #3424
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Good they doing a share back to support the share price

    Helps Total Shareholder Return calculation as well .....is this one measure bonuses are calculated on?
    Last edited by winner69; 27-11-2018 at 08:13 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #3425
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayRiggs View Post
    I agree. Young people these days would rather buy a good smart phone and uber around than own a car.
    Good point about autonomous self driving cars. Something Elon Musk and Tesla are working hard on.
    Oh my goodness, AHG on the ASX. I was not aware of them. That chart really does look dreadful!
    Factor in too the regional planning with Auckland council now allowing very dense housing developments around public transport and we'll probably continue to see the weak demand Turners alluded too in the Auckland market continue.

    First impressions. Result has been enhanced by the $3.4m gain on the sale of Wiri property. If it were not for that profit would be down. One could argue both ways as to whether this is an extraordinary item and should have been included below the profit reporting line or whether these sort of gains are an integral part of their business. I continue to believe these sort of gains due to their spasmodic nature are not part of their core business activities and reporting as an extraordinary item is more appropriate...but what would a tired old bean counter with decades of experience know...I am sure others will have their own "expert" opinions on this.

    We have seen the same factors that are impacting AHG impacting Turners. Will the very recent lower fuel prices, (down a fair bit from early October high's) spur demand in the remaining 5 months of the second half ?...that as they say is the $64,000 question. Buy back is a good idea. Net profit from Autosure is extremely impressive, up 144%, just as well they bought that !

    Overall my sense is the shares are about fair value all things considered at the current price and management are doing a pretty good job in a more difficult trading environment. I don't see the compelling growth opportunities that one or two others constantly remind us of and the opportunities that are there are probably equally balanced by the risks. Probably just plod along and do okay on an eps basis unless we get a major exogenous economic shock or some major international geopolitical event.
    Disc: Holding a very modest stake for dividend yield.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-11-2018 at 08:09 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #3426
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    My magic spreadsheet comes up with H1 NPBT of $17m and NPAT of $12.2m or 13.7 cents per share (they’ll report 14 cents plus on a weighted average number of shares)

    The good news is that there HAS to be a lift in guidance to something like $37m to $40m NPBT
    Magic spreadsheet pretty good

    Pity about the profit upgrade bit
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #3427
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    OMG ....A PROFIT DOWNGRADE


    Industry-wide headwinds emerging in the automotive retail sector with a potential downside
    impact of 5 - 10% to forecasted FY19 pre-tax profits if current market conditions persist



    No wonder Todd didn’t want to answer Beagles question about how things were going

    Hope punters gloss over that bit ....it’s only a possibilityeh
    Well, yes - a possible profit downgrade ... but than - its really nicely wrapped - isn't it?

    Increased HY earnings, good dividend, share buyback (which actually might reduce the impact of any profit downgrade - and than, all these big payrises still need to find their way through to the car market - don't they?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #3428
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Beagles ......property gains probably should be treated as ‘normal’ (more so because it’s a investment return on the insurance float eh)

    Just leads to lumpy performance ....and it’s helped out this time in what has been a pretty poor half ...even though Todd still raves on about this integrated model
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #3429
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagles ......property gains probably should be treated as ‘normal’ (more so because it’s a investment return on the insurance float eh)

    Just leads to lumpy performance ....and it’s helped out this time in what has been a pretty poor half ...even though Todd still raves on about this integrated model
    LOL - Yes I am sure the usual suspect will wax lyrical about the stunning profit growth of 28% and assure us that these sort of gains are a normal part of their business and we can expect them on a really regular basis...oh hang on a minute...what about that inconvenient truth of a profit downgrade
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #3430
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    OMG ....A PROFIT DOWNGRADE


    Industry-wide headwinds emerging in the automotive retail sector with a potential downside impact of 5 - 10% to forecasted FY19 pre-tax profits if current market conditions persist


    No wonder Todd didn’t want to answer Beagles question about how things were going

    Hope punters gloss over that bit ....it’s only a possibilityeh
    now why the price has been going down is known, probably more like 10 - 20% headwinds. gm in us closing plants due to poor retail sales , ahg in aus poor retail sales , nz last mth poor sales
    one step ahead of the herd

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