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  1. #3531
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Long term I can't see you going wrong at that price.
    TRA - I think people are pricing it as a no growth company as though the current difficult trading conditions will exist permanently. I think that's as fundamentally erroneous as saying the Labour party who have seriously undermined business confidence will be in power permanently. I have some reservations about Grant Baker but I think Todd Hunter is doing a good job. PE is less than 9 and gross yield more than 9% with a $10m+ buyback coming. Hmmmm
    Beagle in love again.?
    No surprises.!!.
    Yes vertically intergrated business model is sound,and scalable.
    OK slow market in Auckland in October,but I believe November has picked up,and the rest of NZ is not looking too bad.
    BuyRight cars in Hamilton trading above expectations ,and further growth available in the rest of NZ.
    Last edited by percy; 28-11-2018 at 07:53 AM.

  2. #3532
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    In agreement. I see this as financial fiddling.
    C’mon janner ...be more sophisticated than using terms like “fiddling”...that sounds like being dishonest .....in the trade it’s “financial engineering”
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3533
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    C’mon janner ...be more sophisticated than using terms like “fiddling”...that sounds like being dishonest .....in the trade it’s “financial engineering”

    I say it as I see it..

  4. #3534
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    I say it as I see it..
    ......and I agree with you but some (not those entranced by management of course) might have used the word dodgy
    Last edited by winner69; 28-11-2018 at 08:17 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #3535
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ......and I agree with you but some (not those entranced by management of course) might have used the word dodgy
    I could not possibly comment on that..

    Dodgy

    adjective INFORMAL•BRITISH

    dishonest or unreliable.
    "a dodgy second-hand car salesman"

    potentially dangerous.
    "activities like these could be dodgy for your heart"

    of low quality.
    "Spurs' dodgy defence had thrown away a 2-0 lead"

    synonyms: second-rate, third-rate, substandard, low-grade, low-quality, cheap;

  6. #3536
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Beagle in love again.?
    No surprises.!!.
    Yes vertically intergrated business model is sound,and scalable.
    OK slow market in Auckland in October,but I believe November has picked up,and the rest of NZ is not looking too bad.
    BuyRight cars in Hamilton trading above expectations ,and further growth available in the rest of NZ.
    Love doesn't come into it. Just a cold calculated business decision that on the balance of probabilities its probably (despite the SP being a train wreck for the last year, thank goodness I took steps to mitigate my losses and only held a few) reasonably good investing for yield at this level, possibly limited downside from here, hopefully
    Not a high conviction or high level holding for me.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2018 at 08:30 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #3537
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Love doesn't come into it. Just a cold calculated business decision that on the balance of probabilities its probably (despite the SP being a train wreck for the last year, thank goodness I took steps to mitigate my losses and only held a few) reasonably good investing for yield at this level, possibly limited downside from here, hopefully
    Not a high conviction or high level holding for me.
    I remain unconvinced on the dividend yield argument - it is not keeping up with capital losses through reducing Share Price.

    Not am I convinced by the share buy back - it is likely to create false liquidity in the market. All good for a trader who will take a punt on buying low and selling higher. But not as a long term investment. Share buy back ends - liquidity dries up and SP fall back.

    I'm still not sure where the money is coming from for the share buy back.

  8. #3538
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    I remain unconvinced on the dividend yield argument - it is not keeping up with capital losses through reducing Share Price.

    Not am I convinced by the share buy back - it is likely to create false liquidity in the market. All good for a trader who will take a punt on buying low and selling higher. But not as a long term investment. Share buy back ends - liquidity dries up and SP fall back.

    I'm still not sure where the money is coming from for the share buy back.
    Buy low the chance of good returns is better ...buy high the chance of good returns is diminished. Beagle thinks now is a low

    Buyback money coming from petty cash
    Last edited by winner69; 28-11-2018 at 08:44 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #3539
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    I remain unconvinced on the dividend yield argument - it is not keeping up with capital losses through reducing Share Price.

    Not am I convinced by the share buy back - it is likely to create false liquidity in the market. All good for a trader who will take a punt on buying low and selling higher. But not as a long term investment. Share buy back ends - liquidity dries up and SP fall back.

    I'm still not sure where the money is coming from for the share buy back.
    I hear you mate and agree the SP performance has been absolutely appalling. Stepping back from that and taking a medium - long term view at $2.51 and assuming normal market conditions return in the medium term, 17 cps fully imputed gives 23.61 cps gross and on $2.51 that's 9.4% gross and its paid quarterly. Funding, they have increased their syndicated banking facility significantly this month.

    I see this one in a similar light to the long term position I took in ZEL recently. Both suffered a tough first half and both got beaten up very badly by the market which appears to assume that a bunch of one off factors and / or tougher market conditions are going to be permanent.

    I am shifting my portfolio to have a strong dividend bias for calendar year 2019 onward. Any stock that doesn't pay a forecast yield of at the very least 5% (and I would need to see genuine prospects of strong growth in future dividends at that level) is under review with a bias towards sale.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2018 at 08:54 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #3540
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    and everyones hoping that 10 - 20% decline in business doesnt mean reduced dividends and buybacks reduced to conserve cash
    one step ahead of the herd

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