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- TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]
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30-11-2018, 06:24 PM
#3671
Originally Posted by minimoke
Disagreement is fine. The charts tell the story.
The Charts tell the History. Management ability will determine the future.
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30-11-2018, 06:53 PM
#3672
Originally Posted by winner69
Turners must be a loser for you as well by now ...you selling?
Yes,TRA is a loser for me [at present].
No not selling.I have my portfolio, including TRA, as I want it.
A good balance of high yielding stocks paying increasing fully imputed divies,smaller agressive companies paying modest divies,and a few high risk specs, which hopefully my extensive research will prove they are tomorrow's absolute gems.
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30-11-2018, 06:54 PM
#3673
Originally Posted by Brain
The Charts tell the History. Management ability will determine the future.
What a great post.
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30-11-2018, 07:01 PM
#3674
Originally Posted by Brain
The Charts tell the History. Management ability will determine the future.
The Charts tells the History of Management Performance. Market Sentiment will determine the future
Or something like that
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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30-11-2018, 07:17 PM
#3675
Market sentiment can be and often is bipolar.
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30-11-2018, 07:23 PM
#3676
The Tardus will tell the future, the charts are historic and history never repeats. Ambitous management can never be trusted, performance depends on how many free options are given. The future is unwritten. The CEO living in a 2002 people mover will install confidence and operations run from a container will ensure success.The mag wheels being flogged separately are the signal to go all in.Thats how it goes, but have a spare battery just in case.
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30-11-2018, 07:39 PM
#3677
Originally Posted by Snoopy
The TRA dividend policy is to pay out 50-60% of earnings as dividends. Grant Baker in the October 2018 shareholder update states:
"We are targeting a minimum FY2019 dividend of 17cps."
Based on 84.802m shares on issue, the total money to pay this dividend will be:
0.170 x 84.802m = $14.4m
The projected profit for FY2019 was for NPBT of $34m to $36m. We are told that NPBT could be impacted by 5 – 10% from the previous guidance range. Worst case this means NPBT of $30.6m to $32.4m. Take off tax at 28% and this leaves an NPAT of: $22.0m to $23.3m. This means that the projected $14.4m dividend would take 62%-65% of earnings: above the 50% to 60% dividend guidance range. However, I would be surprised if dividends were actually reduced, even in this most pessimistic scenario. That's because once dividend goals are announced, and are well covered by earnings, management do not like to back flip.
If there is to be a reduction in dividends, that might come in FY2020. But FY2020 is an entirely different year. Who knows what conditions in the used car market will be by then.
SNOOPY
you see what i mean imagine a 10 20% decline.
i think there next update is of big importance. will show us if sales decline was a blip or somethink more going on. take your punt for a bounce or a decline lol
one step ahead of the herd
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30-11-2018, 08:46 PM
#3678
Originally Posted by percy
Different objectives.
A trader will buy/ sell on charts.
An investor will look at the business and buy long term.
Turners suits me as a long term investment.I like their business model.
Can you see someone like Greg Tomlinson looking at OCA or HGH's charts?
Most probably $80 mil plus invested in those two companies.
He made his money investing.
I have never heard of Warren Buffett,Peter Lynch,John Templeton etc making a buying decission on charts,
Have you heard of a investor called Stan Druckenmiller, apparently he does use TA to guide him on investment decisions and he's only managed to return over 30% p.a over the last 30 years (yes that does beat Buffett).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-MlrpoMig0
A good interview of a man who seldom does interviews
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30-11-2018, 10:00 PM
#3679
Originally Posted by Brain
The Charts tell the History. Management ability will determine the future.
If that truism was indeed true we should be able to back test it.
So lets wind the clock back two years and apply it.
Back then SP was about $3.50. We invest relying on managements ability to determine the future.
For 5 months management do a great job determining the future and as a result the SP rises to $3.90. Excellent. We have about a 10% rise enjoying those glorious dividends.
From May 2017 management keep determining the future. And they have delivered great divvies (Percy:- 5% - 6% PA??). One year later SP is at $3.00. Hmm a 25% drop in capital value
Never fear. We have faith in management determining the future.
Hmm. Nov SP is at $2.50. A bit over a further 15% drop in capital value while those 6% dvies have flooded in.
Do we continue to have faith in management. No!
Do the charts tell us anything?. Yes Whatever management has done is eroding shareholder wealth.
So do I have faith in Management. No.
But I do have faith in the market and management to manipulate the SP sufficiently to return me a gain on my @investment@.
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01-12-2018, 08:44 AM
#3680
Originally Posted by minimoke
If that truism was indeed true we should be able to back test it.
So lets wind the clock back two years and apply it.
Back then SP was about $3.50. We invest relying on managements ability to determine the future.
For 5 months management do a great job determining the future and as a result the SP rises to $3.90. Excellent. We have about a 10% rise enjoying those glorious dividends.
From May 2017 management keep determining the future. And they have delivered great divvies (Percy:- 5% - 6% PA??). One year later SP is at $3.00. Hmm a 25% drop in capital value
Never fear. We have faith in management determining the future.
Hmm. Nov SP is at $2.50. A bit over a further 15% drop in capital value while those 6% dvies have flooded in.
Do we continue to have faith in management. No!
Do the charts tell us anything?. Yes Whatever management has done is eroding shareholder wealth.
So do I have faith in Management. No.
But I do have faith in the market and management to manipulate the SP sufficiently to return me a gain on my @investment@.
Great piece of TA analysis with some FA as well. Well done minimoke.
So management (prob need to include the Board) ability has been abysmal and what they’ve done has eroded a lot of shareholder wealth.
Trend theory says the entrenched trends often need a ‘shock’ to change the direction of the trend
Time for a few sackings and getting a few decent managers maybe.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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