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  1. #3731
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    According to Reuters over the last month either one, or both, analysts covering the stock have dropped their rating of TRA.
    They've gone from 1 x Buy and 1 x Outperform to 1 x Outperform and 1 x Hold.
    I'm not sure how much influence they have in NZ but it possibly goes some way to explain the recent demise in the share price?

    https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst/TRA.NZ

    As for calls for the brokers to get stuck in and boost the share price. That makes no real sense to long term holders. The more TRA they buy at the bottom the more shares they get for their money.
    Last edited by BlackCross; 04-12-2018 at 10:02 AM.

  2. #3732
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Deputy Chairman said this atbthe AGM —

    As most will know both First NZ Capital and Craigs Investment Partners commenced analyst coverage of Turners in 2016 with regular in-depth analysis of our full year and interim results, providing guidance for their respective clients. As part of these regular market research reports, analysts include their forecast of future profits for 3 years out and a share price target for the next 12 months based on their analysis.

    The most recent research reports following the release of our profit result to 31 March 2018, had 12 month target share prices of $3.29 and $3.35, so an average of $3.32. Forecast profit for this current year FY19 from the 2 reports were similarly close to each other with an average profit before tax of $34.5 million, just under the mid-point of our current guidance of between $34 million and $36 million. We would also expect actual earnings per share for FY19 to come close to assumptions included in these reports.

    So why is our share price currently around $2.85, well below the price suggested by conventional analysis in these reports? And trading at a level at which the Board sees value – you will have seen directors and senior executives including Grant, Todd and myself recently buying at around $3.00 per share.


    So brokers target about $3.20 — that implies a current share price of $2.90 to $3.00

    And brokers earnings forecast for F19 were pretty much in line with Turners guidance $34m to $36m

    Though not “official” possibility of earnings being lower than this .....have these brokers revised their forecasts and targets yet? Or living in hope?

    Maybe, just maybe, fair and realistic share price is about $2.50 to $2.60

    But good on them trying every trick in the book to boost the share price ...all the salesmen talk has failed to date

    Might get to breakeven today
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3733
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Whoops ...I see on marketscreener those 2 above mentioned analysts have lower their targets to $2.70 to $3.11 with a mean of $2.91

    Obviously they just don’t get it

    That’s some downgrade
    Last edited by winner69; 04-12-2018 at 10:10 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #3734
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    . Once the new car gets on sold, it doesn't disappear. It becomes a used car and potentially Turners are in the ticket clipping window again. What am I missing here?

    SNOOPY
    The used car market is subject to supply and demand. If there is an influx to the used market of cars traded for new models and demand remains static the price of used cars will fall.

    This effects Turners in two ways;

    As an auctioneer whose income is dependent on the commission they earn on fall of hammer prices.

    As a financier whose interest income will fall as a result of borrowers needing to borrow less.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

  5. #3735
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    Yes.My broker (something with a c in it) has a 12month target price of $2.70 after results. estimated PBT lowered to$27.2 mill and EPS to 22cps for 2019

  6. #3736
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Whoops ...I see on marketscreener those 2 above mentioned analysts have lower their targets to $2.70 to $3.11 with a mean of $2.91

    Obviously they just don’t get it

    That’s some downgrade
    I think they do "get it"

    Snoopy. In brief and in addition to what Marilyn Munroe has said , margin compression is what happens when there's excessive level's of second hand stock to shift and Percy looking at those broker forecasts of eps going out to FY20 there is nothing whatsoever in there that is going to make one iota of difference to seeing the SP go up.
    I think its about fair value as a dividend yield hold at $2.50 and that's it. Chances of seeing $3 anytime soon are very slim in my opinion.
    Last edited by Beagle; 04-12-2018 at 12:58 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #3737
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yes.My broker (something with a c in it)
    Funny what speed reading posts does. First glance i read " in i" as a "un". Brain must have processed "broker" first and drawn assumptions from that.

  8. #3738
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    Looks like we're stuck in the $2.50's for a while!

    There's are a lot of sellers keen to move on (most of which aren't showing their hands as yet) and Turners on the buy side (but limiting themselves to only 30% of the weekly volume).

    I doubt that they will even get close to half of the 4.474m shares mention in the buyback over the next 4 months, but that was probably never their plan.
    Last edited by McGinty; 04-12-2018 at 01:50 PM. Reason: typo

  9. #3739
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Ive lost track a bit - were TRA cum dividend yesterday?

  10. #3740
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Ive lost track a bit - were TRA cum dividend yesterday?
    I dont know the exact answer to your question but next ex date for div is 21/1/19


    8 October 2018
    Turners declares higher quarterly dividend and re-affirms guidance
    The Board of Turners Automotive Group Limited (NZX: TRA) has declared the first quarterly dividend for the 2019 financial year of 4 cents per share, fully imputed, with a record date of 23 October 2018 and a payment date of 30 October 2018.

    In addition, the Board advises that it expects to declare a further two quarterly fully imputed dividends of 4 cents per share in January and April 2019, followed by a fully imputed final dividend of 5 cents per share in July 2019.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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