The used car market is subject to supply and demand. If there is an influx to the used market of cars traded for new models and demand remains static the price of used cars will fall.
This effects Turners in two ways;
As an auctioneer whose income is dependent on the commission they earn on fall of hammer prices.
As a financier whose interest income will fall as a result of borrowers needing to borrow less.
Bloody heck ..in spite of their attempt to prop up the share price the share price keeps going down
Seducing punters by promises of bigger dividends and telling every man and his dog that a share buyback is good use of capital isn’t working......can management do anything right?
Oh well ...tomorrow’s another day and it all might get better
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Bloody heck ..in spite of their attempt to prop up the share price the share price keeps going down
Seducing punters by promises of bigger dividends and telling every man and his dog that a share buyback is good use of capital isn’t working......can management do anything right?
Oh well ...tomorrow’s another day and it all might get better
........but failing in achieving the main objective of increasing the share price ....closing the gap to this much vaunted intrinsic value
Losers
For me they are "real" winners.
FNZC are being astute spending TRA shareholders" capital very carefully by letting the sellers come to them.
Clever,working for long term shareholders like me.
Craigs must know nothing putting a one year price target of only $2.70 on it eh Percy. Heck in two years you've assured us its going to double and be $5 so we should be half way there this time next year at $3.75 ! And Couta1's reversion theory he reckons that its worth at least $3.80 so this is just bewildering value at $2.48 isn't it !!
Time to back up the truck and "bet the ranch" !!!!!!
I reckon you should go "all in" on this one, how could you possibly lose !
Last edited by Beagle; 04-12-2018 at 07:50 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Looking at the TA, it looks as though they (FNZC) will have many more sellers coming to them very soon.
Basically every TRA shareholder is now what we would call a 'trapped holder' (hoping for the price to increase back to their purchase price), but for most chances are that it won't in this market.
Here's how I see it:
- Grant has lost it being quoted saying "This positive outlook supports the Share Buyback initiative” in the same announcement which is warning of a possible downgrade (Either that or he's talking fluff).
- The same Analysis forecast that Paul Byrnes mentioned at the AGM have dropped their target price by 10 & 20%
- Directors may know about the business, but they don't know the first thing when it comes to understanding how market sentiment works (and how it can work against you)
- I would even question if the directors are any good at investing as they've failed to generate a positive return in their own TRA holdings (but we know they can certainly trough)
- TA wise (due to the trapped holders) it will take ages (possibly years) for TRA to hit $3.30 again. - This buyback won't hold up the price if it's limited to just 30% of weekly volume. - The buyback is the last defence of the SP by the directors (as a buyback has previously never been mentioned as a part of TRA's capital management)
- They will struggle to maintain the current dividend unless market conditions improve, so a yield play this may not be.
The lack of positive tone at the AGM is now under stood by us all, now we are sitting a further 10% out of pocket.
Red flags flying all over with this one (to be honest these flags came out in Aug and I failed to act on them).
Lessons come in many forms but at least with this one I'm happy in the knowledge that Grant and the boys are out of pocket more than me, and it may be worth keeping 1 share to attend next years AGM (for old times sake) as I think there will be some good fireworks if the SP stay's at these levels or lower.
Only sharing as others readers may find some points valuable. Rant over!
There's no need to worry mate, just look at Percy's assurance posted on 30 November 2018.
Originally Posted by percy
I would not worry about the sp.
It will double.
May take two years.May take three years.
My only worry is they get taken over under $4.00 in the next or so.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by minimoke
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