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  1. #3851
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Fishing no good today...popcorn gone cold now.
    Too many Sharks in the tank at the moment.

  2. #3852
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Fishing no good today...popcorn gone cold now. Maybe the optimists have been shell shocked by the lack of eps growth the brokers are forecasting and don't know how to possibly put a positive spin on that ?...but I am pretty sure they'll find a way to do exactly that at some stage soon lol
    With OCA at $1.12 I'm busy pondering a top up there

  3. #3853
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    With OCA at $1.12 I'm busy pondering a top up there
    That price is Nuttier than a jar of peanut butter, mop them up while you can.

  4. #3854
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    That price is Nuttier than a jar of peanut butter, mop them up while you can.
    Unfortunately there are 22 bargain hunters ahead. Would be nice to see even 1/4 that number interested in buying TRA

  5. #3855
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    That price is Nuttier than a jar of peanut butter, mop them up while you can.
    LOL, hope that's not the smooth peanut butter variety
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #3856
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    The last set of accounts for Dorchester before they became a car company (did have 20% of Turners at the time) showed finance Receivables of $38m with debt of only $18m

    Numbers are much higher these days but debt is higher than Finance Receivables ....increasing leverage to the limit?
    Shareholders who believe that TRA is in a debt straight jacket might be interested to see how the debt measures up against the banking covenants listed in the respective bond prospectuses.

    From p34 of the TNRHB & p 'Something' in theTRA100 bond prospectus, the TNR banking covenants:

    1/ Interest Cover Ratio:

    EBITDA/ Total Interest > 3.5

    2/ Leverage Ratio:

    Gross Debt / EBITDA < (Requirement). Requirement varies as below

    Period Requirement
    Issue date to 31/12/2014 3.75
    01/01/2015 to 31/03/2015 3.50
    01/04/2015 to 30/06/2015 3.00
    01/07/2015 to 30/09/2015 2.75
    01/10/2015 to 30/03/2016 2.50
    01/04/2016 to 30/06/2016 2.25
    01/07/2016 to 01/09/2018 2.00
    01/09/2018 to maturity 2.00

    Time to put the position of TRA under scrutiny at the 31-03-2018 balance date.

    EBITDA/ Total Interest = [$31.133m+$5.626m+$14.344m] / $14.344m = 3.52 > 3.5 (=> O.K. - just!)

    Gross Debt / EBITDA = $317.373m / $51.103m = 6.21 > 2.0 ( => fail test )

    That last test in particular is a fairly nasty fail, albeit Turners have 'failed' this test before by my calculations.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Time to put the position of TNR under scrutiny at balance date.

    EBITDA/ Total Interest = [$18.264m+$1.504m+$7.381m] / $7.381m = 3.68 > 3.5 (=> O.K.)

    Gross Debt / EBITDA = $156.995m / $27.149m = 5.78 > 3.5 ( => fail test )

    Granted all of this is historical. But it does appear that on balance date (31-03-2015), TNR was in breach of its banking covenants (the Gross Debt/ EBITDA figure)! Furthermore the first covenant was only rescued because of a write up in the share value of TUA shares because of the takeover offer! This is desperate stuff. Those directors at the AGM deserve a grilling!
    Have I made a mistake in calculating particularly that latter bond covenant? Yet the Target Requirement Value in that latter covenant has varied a lot since FY2016. Is it just that banks are willing to be quite flexible with this one?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 08-12-2018 at 12:27 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  7. #3857
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Snoops ....that debt/ebitda thing might only apply to (certain/all) bank debt and not total debt

    Is banking covenants eh so only want to look after their own money and not worry about other lenders like bond holders

    Just a suggestion
    Last edited by winner69; 08-12-2018 at 01:01 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #3858
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Snoops ....that debt/ebitda thing might only apply to (certain/all) bank debt and not total debt

    Is banking covenants eh so only want to look after their own money and not worry about other lenders like bond holders

    Just a suggestion
    I am pulling out all stops to get the relevant debt down. At your suggestion Winner I am only using the bank debt and subtracting off the cash balance. I am also using the figures averaged over the year, not just at the end of the year.

    Net Debt / EBITDA = [0.5($230.459m+$191.708m) - 0.5($25.146m+$69.069m)] / $51.103m = 3.20 > 2.0 ( => fail test )

    Still not low enough! :-(

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 08-12-2018 at 05:26 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  9. #3859
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I am pulling out all stops to get the relevant debt down. At your suggestion Winner I am only using the bank debt and subtracting off the cash balance. I am also using the figures averaged over the year, not just at the end of the year.

    Net Debt / EBITDA = [0.5($230.459m+$191.708m) - 0.5($25.146m+$69.069m)] / $51.103m = 3.20 > 2.0 ( => fail test )

    Still not low enough! :-(

    SNOOPY
    Maybe debt is a little high ...and they have $30m of undrawn facilty as well (I think)
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #3860
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maybe debt is a little high ...and they have $30m of undrawn facilty as well (I think)
    From announcement 27/11/2018....TRA Interim result presentation, page 9.
    Undrawn at 30th September 2018...................$78mil.

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