TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[BlackPeter]

I believe what you see on the screen in terms of depth to the sell side is a just a mere fraction of what's really for sale.
FCNZ as the broker tasked with the buyback are keen to maintain the charade of an orderly market.

Nothing criminal about it. See the Direct broking thread. The selling is relentless. As soon as a sale order is filled the sellers come back and load more to the sell side. There's simply no end to it whereas in terms of buying depth, there has been an absolute paucity of interest for many months now. Better get used to it making new multi year lows on a regular basis mate. The trend is clearly not your friend with this one.
Do you think leaving just 60 shares on the bid at $2.20 is a bit contrived ? Hoping someone doesn't have access to depth information and bids $2.21 ?

Are we sure we are talking about the same stock? Daily trading volumes for TRA have been in recent days typically around 10k shares traded per day. Admittedly - today it is already a stunning 66.9k. Must be for this stock close to capitulation volumes?

As well, not seeing what advantage NZFC would have in pushing the SP up - their client would no doubt prefer to buy as cheap as possible ...

But anyway - TRA is clearly at this stage not the markets darling - and a big fund selling without another fund buying creates clearly some assymetrie in the trading of an illiquid stock. Question is - is Milford right to sell? I don't know - sometimes they are, sometimes they are not.

If they are not, than the current SP is clearly a pretty good deal ... though obviously - it might be still better tomorrow.

Just imagine - the share market closes down for the next 5 years. Would my TRA investment continue to pay dividends and still be around and stronger when it reopens? Based on the currently available public information - I would have no reason to doubt this.

[winner69]

Just imagine - the share market closes down for the next 5 years. Would my TRA investment continue to pay dividends and still be around and stronger when it reopens? Based on the currently available public information - I would have no reason to doubt this.

I love just imagine games


If the market closes down for 5 years Turners possibly wouldn't pay any divies .... and after the sun sets may not be much left when the market reopens


Just imagine games are good ..... premortem games (analysis) are very good

[BlackPeter]

If the market closes down for 5 years Turners possibly wouldn't pay any divies .... and after the sun sets may not be much left when the market reopens

Mind to expand on that?

What observation from their books or which industry trend is telling you they would not pay a dividend and lose value?

I'd love to learn more about your premortem analysis games ...

[winner69]

Mind to expand on that?

What observation from their books or which industry trend is telling you they would not pay a dividend and lose value?

I'd love to learn more about your premortem analysis games ...

Was just thinking that they wouldn’t need to keep paying divies to keep the share price up and pay down debt .. ...but then Baker and his mates might need the cash so you might continue to get yours as well.

I was just imagining that there might not be much left when the market reopens

[Jaa]

14/9/2017 - Management raises $25m from institutions at $3.02 and a derisory $5m from shareholders in a SPP one month later for:

• Continued growth of the Turners finance book, which is currently expanding at approximately $10 million of receivables per month; and
• Strategic dealer and property acquisitions to grow the distribution network and capabilities of the Automotive Retail Division.

27/11/2018- Just over a year later, management announce a share buyback programme, of up to 5% of its issued share capital (4.474m shares). Around $12m at the then share price of $2.72 because:

Chairman of Turner’s, Grant Baker, commented that the Board continued to believe that the share price did not appropriately reflect the fundamentals of the business.

“The Board believes that the purchase of shares, at current market prices, provides a return above the company’s cost of capital and will be value enhancing for shareholders. Turners is in a strong financial position and the buyback is seen as an efficient use of capital while the share price remains below the intrinsic value of the business. It provides a means to return capital to shareholders, while benefiting those who continue to hold shares in the company.”

26/02/2019 - Share price closes at 2.20.


Not been great capital management has it?

[winner69]

Good to see Australia instos supporting Turners ....keeping the share price up

The ASX listing was a blessing in disguise after all

[winner69]

14/9/2017 - Management raises $25m from institutions at $3.02 and a derisory $5m from shareholders in a SPP one month later for:



27/11/2018- Just over a year later, management announce a share buyback programme, of up to 5% of its issued share capital (4.474m shares). Around $12m at the then share price of $2.72 because:



26/02/2019 - Share price closes at 2.20.


Not been great capital management has it?

Suppose you should include the $20m plus that loyal Turnerites ploughed into the company as part of their bond conversions (at $2.85 and $2.95)

[Snoopy]

Hi all Todd Hunter here....I think it is worth just clarifying the safeguard guidelines that we adhere to in regard to the Buyback...there are no "tricks" going on.

1. Turners will only buy back Shares through NZX’s trading/order matching system and during normal trading hours (i.e. there will be no off-market transactions).
2. Shares will not be purchased at a price which is more than 10% above the average closing price for Shares on the NZSX over the previous five trading days.
3. Turners will not take part in the opening transaction on a trading day.
4. it is intended that the purchases by Turners over a one week period will not exceed 30% of the volume of Shares traded over that one week period.

The Management and Directors believe this is a good use of our capital at present.

Thanks
Todd

On 28th November 2018, TRA announced a buyback of up to 5% of the company's shares. That amounts to a maximum of 4,474,000 shares.
The buyback is due to end on 31st March 2019, in 33 days time. The buyback actually started on 2nd December 2018, so has been running for 86 days. So far, 2,086,567 shares have been acquired and cancelled. If the rate at which shares are acquired remains constant, how many will have been acquired by TRA before the 31st March 2019 balance date?

	Maximum Bought	Actual + Projected Bought
Shares on Issue 01-12-2018	89,442,154	89,442,154
less Actual Shares bought to 26-02-2019		(2,086,567)
less Projected Shares bought to 31-03-2019		(800,659)
less Maximum Shares bought to 31-03-2019	(4,474,000)
equals Shares Outstanding to 31-03-2019	84,968,154	86,554,928

Of course, there is no reason in particular why Turners should keep buying their own shares at the same rate as they were doing before. They may increase their buying rate to bring the total shares acquired up to the maximum. If Milford owned 6,777,710 shares representing 7.995% of TRA shares on 03/03/2018 and they now own 6,021,281m representing 6.850% shares on 13/02/2019 then Milford still retain a lot more shares they can sell back to Turners on market.

SNOOPY

P.S. If Milford held that many shares last year, can anyone explain why they were not listed as a substantial holder on page 87 in the FY2018 annual report?
Answer: It has now emerged that the Annual Report was changed some date after the hard copy was sent out to shareholders. In the revised edition available on the TRA website, both Milford and Salt Funds are listed as substantial shareholders.

[peat]

O If Milford held that many shares last year, can anyone explain why they were not listed as a substantial holder on page 87 in the FY2018 annual report?

7.99%

they might hold them under nominees listed on pg 86 ??

[Marilyn Munroe]

Disintermediation. A long word that is wrecking the furniture in the used car sales world.

Back in the day when a movie star wanted to travel by plane to promote her films she would go to a travel agent, now she would bypass the agent and book directly with the airline on the internet.

Same thing is happening in the used car business. For a while it was assumed the new efficient model was an ordinary Kiwi joker wanting to buy a used car would bypass the used car dealer and their margin by raising his finger at a vehicle auction. Hasn't worked.

Nowdays this kiwi joker is more likely to look on the internet to find the used car of his dreams.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation

Boop boop de do
Marilyn