TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[winner69]

Final decision Oxford Finance not being sold. Guess no one else thought it was worth a $100 million.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658

Maybe the Board remains delusional while many of our punters were just exceedingly hopeful.

[Beagle]

Yeap, I'm on record saying the level of bad and doubtful debts and the rising trend of same meant they were never going to get an attractive multiple on the "real" earnings of this business. (Real, is the stated earnings adjusted for an independent assessment of bad and doubtful debts).
The directors think the shares are worth $3.20 so its no surprise that other parties didn't view Oxford through the same rose tinted glasses.
The worry about keeping it is the trend in bad and doubtful debts. Wonder what that review cost them ?, (coming out of FY20 earnings or do they mark this out as yet another extraordinary item ?), and what are they going to try to flog off next ?

[BlackPeter]

Final decision Oxford Finance not being sold. Guess no one else thought it was worth a $100 million.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658

... must be time to crank up the board fees again. Some hardship premium for having to do the job they are already paid for combined with a recognition for outstanding delusion must be in order - mustn't it?

[Beagle]

... must be time to crank up the board fees again. Some hardship premium for having to do the job they are already paid for combined with a recognition of outstanding delusion must be in order - mustn't it?

No. No. NO ! That did the dog's head in last time something fierce, not to mention was a real problem for my blood pressure lol
Went along to the 2018 annual meeting all riled up for a massive barking session and Baker the main offender wasn't even there !
Anyway...good they think that 17 cps annual dividends is sustainable now they've done another flip flop back to a fully integrated sales and distribution model.
Suppose that gives some dividend hounds something to chew on, although I hasten to add I prefer my dog food with at least a moderate level of ESG garnish on the side.

[percy]

I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,and profits,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending criteria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders remain "well positioned."

[winner69]

I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending crieria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders are "well positioned."

Yep percy ....Oxford Finance in its own right is a well performing and growing business with a strong network of active dealers across the country and Turners should “excited by opportunities to continue reshaping and growing the business.”

Now an important part of Turners growth strategy as well as a good use of capital

[percy]

Yep percy ....Oxford Finance in its own right is a well performing and growing business with a strong network of active dealers across the country and Turners should “excited by opportunities to continue reshaping and growing the business.”

Now an important part of Turners growth strategy as well as a good use of capital

Yes I always found once sales increase everything else seemed to fall into place .Had better cash flow, which meant I could take advantage of better buying opportunities,which in turn lead to better margins.I think it is fair to say when you are going forward the momemtum increases.These new and relocated branches trading "gangbusters" are certainly giving Turners great mommentum.

[LAC]

Not fussed to hear that Oxford didnt sell. Its a good business and I think it will be a good earner in the coming years and will sell for a premium eventually if they ever do end up selling.

[kiora]

Not fussed to hear that Oxford didnt sell. Its a good business and I think it will be a good earner in the coming years and will sell for a premium eventually if they ever do end up selling.

Sell the value added like Fonterror ?

[Beagle]

I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,and profits,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending criteria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders remain "well positioned."

They told us at the 2018 meeting that problematic MTF loans had just over a year to go. Are you saying one year later there's another 18 months to go and suggesting directors were deliberately lying at the 2018 meeting ?
MTF delinquencies blew out from about 8.4% to over 14% from the time of the 2018 annual meeting to 31 March 2019, from memory.
Other delinquent loans in the main book blew out from 1.6% to 2.0% over the same time period.

They really don't have a good handle on managing their problem loans in my opinion so the failure to sell is a real failure and problem loans will continue to dog this business going forward. The non sale will also he a handbrake on their ability to expand their retail footprint, let's not kid ourselves.
One of the key governance issues as I see it is that Turners directors are simply not commercially realistic with their expectations regarding the value of the various aspects of the business and that sort of arrogance doesn't serve shareholders best interests.

This is just a pretty ordinary mutt with a fair bit of doggy doo stuck under its tail, (those are the problem loans for those that didn't get the analogy).