TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[winner69]

That's probably what they mean when they talk about a soft market and industry consolidation. Even if they talk about the chance to get a larger piece of the pie - they say as well the pie is shrinking!

But everything in every division seems honky dory it’s just hard to envisage H2 Underlying Earnings going backwards by as much as they say in the guidance ...esp when H1 was up so strongly

Words don’t seem to match reality

[Beagle]

HLG "who are really growing"? to me it seems like they are barely growing as well, although perhaps, yes, growing a touch better than TRA... but HLG on a 20% higher PE ratio... 10 for TRA vs 12 for HLG

May I suggest you actually review HLG's sales and eps growth over the last 3-4 years.

[winner69]

At least the market doesn't see this a a bad result

That's good

[Beagle]

But everything in every division seems honky dory it’s just hard to envisage H2 Underlying Earnings going backwards by as much as they say in the guidance ...esp when H1 was up so strongly

Words don’t seem to match reality

I think its time to finally accept that the used car market in new Zealand is an extremely tough and highly competitive industry and with very few barriers to entry, it always will be. You can't earn outsized returns on capital invested when any man and his dog can open up a car yard or any individual can import up to 6 cars a year and sell them on trade me without a dealer licence and more importantly without any overheads. I think Trade me is taking more and more market share and a lot of business is being done by dealers and private people importing a number of cars per year and trading without all the expensive infrastructure and lease costs like Turners has.
Trade me backing up vendors with the ability to provide finance through their referral channel is a bit of a game changer because most people buy cars on finance and this undermines the traditional dealer network.

[trader_jackson]

May I suggest you actually review HLG's sales and eps growth over the last 3-4 years.

"Prior performance is not an indicator of future performance"
sum companies are a great example of how things have well and truly stalled.

Mr Market was never expecting much in the first place it seems - hence the share price has barely moved. Returns YTD pretty nice really.

[BlackPeter]

But everything in every division seems honky dory it’s just hard to envisage H2 Underlying Earnings going backwards by as much as they say in the guidance ...esp when H1 was up so strongly

Words don’t seem to match reality

You might have missed that profit in their largest division (retail) dropped significantly (8%). Not good for a retailer who gave up their one stop shop business plan.

As well - while overall revenue did hold - they needed significantly more capital to make the same revenue as last year ... this is what all these additional shares created through the bond conversion really mean. Less revenue and significantly less earnings per share.

Just doing the same stuff with more money is not a sustainable business model.

[Beagle]

"Prior performance is not an indicator of future performance"
sum companies are a great example of how things have well and truly stalled.

Mr Market was never expecting much in the first place it seems - hence the share price has barely moved. Returns YTD pretty nice really.

I have learned from long experience that talk is cheap and so are forecasts. In my opinion the best guide to future performance is the most recent past performance. The second best guide to future performance is the trend in performance going back over the last 5 years. The third best guide is what the company tells you about their prospects. That's how I measure things and I will stick to what I knows works well for me.

[winner69]

Very positive presentation and analyst briefing

Thats good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...981/312810.pdf

[Beagle]

Very positive presentation and analyst briefing

Thats good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...981/312810.pdf

Lot of talk though eh mate. I think the numbers speak for themselves, especially the outlook.

[percy]

Very positive presentation and analyst briefing

Thats good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...981/312810.pdf

Yes an excellent presentation.
Very clear and easy to understand.
A must read by shareholders, and any investors considering investing in Turners.
For me a few things I found interesting;
Northshore [Archers Road] starting to perform.This is good news as it is a very important site for Turners,as Northshore is a very large market..
Successful de-risking of Oxford Finance.And saying goodbye to poor originators.Very positive.
Funding.$72 mil undrawn.
Autosure writting better quality business.
The purchase of 10,300 m2 Mt Richmond site.Note Northshore site is 8,524 m2.
Better stock control which frees up capital and increases stock turns.
The business is in excellent shape, and "well positioned" for future growth.