TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Balance]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/her...an-51588279379

Looking grim for car rental companies.

Looks like Extra cheap ex-rentals on the way.

[Baa_Baa]

Will be interesting to see where April 'change of registered person transactions stats end up', then May, a good proxy for industry and private sales.

I reckon it'll drop off the cliff. Some really dire commentary about the new & used car industry coming out of overseas markets, Aus and USA, but so far I've found nothing in NZ.

Attachment 11531
TRA Heiken Ashi weekly log scale. (highlights price trends better than candle charts)
Overlay "Total change of registered person transactions for passenger cars and vans by month and sale type"

[Balance]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/her...an-51588279379

Looking grim for car rental companies.

Looks like Extra cheap ex-rentals on the way.

Went by one of the ex-rentals & ex-leasings car dealership in Mt Wellington today - the 'We Are Open' sign has gone up and the yard (previously half-empty) is full of late model used cars.

Let the SALE begin!

[clearasmud]

Saw 2018 45kkm Toyota Levin for 15.5k
Ex rental plus 2018 new shape corolla gx for 20k.
Looks to be up to 20% cheaper.

[dreamcatcher]

Saw 2018 45kkm Toyota Levin for 15.5k
Ex rental plus 2018 new shape corolla gx for 20k.
Looks to be up to 20% cheaper.

Would expect a huge discount as could not be advertised as 300 careful drivers over last 2 years........

[stoploss]

Saw 2018 45kkm Toyota Levin for 15.5k
Ex rental plus 2018 new shape corolla gx for 20k.
Looks to be up to 20% cheaper.

Going to be a lot of cars on the yard worldwide ....
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...wsviewer_click

[Timesurfer]

Definitely a buyers market. Turners might pick up a few car yards going under stock as well.

[Balance]

Definitely a buyers market. Turners might pick up a few car yards going under stock as well.

What kind of hit do you estimate TRA will have to take on their current stock, and on the finance deals?

[Timesurfer]

What kind of hit do you estimate TRA will have to take on their current stock, and on the finance deals?

Be interesting, but the US late-model prices have dropped 17 -18%.
I am guessing it will depend on how many yards, rental companies, lease vehicles we have that are in trouble. If they can absorb the bubble for a while it may not have as much impact. Or if enough Kiwis decide it is time to grab an upgrade bargain.

The difficulty being the lag time with imports. We were still unloading boat-fulls of cars during April so car yards will be over-stocked without the rentals etc.

Holden will be pleased they were ahead of the game with their pull out.

[Balance]

Be interesting, but the US late-model prices have dropped 17 -18%.
I am guessing it will depend on how many yards, rental companies, lease vehicles we have that are in trouble. If they can absorb the bubble for a while it may not have as much impact. Or if enough Kiwis decide it is time to grab an upgrade bargain.

The difficulty being the lag time with imports. We were still unloading boat-fulls of cars during April so car yards will be over-stocked without the rentals etc.

Holden will be pleased they were ahead of the game with their pull out.

Just talked with a used car dealer contact - he sold a grand total of 2 cars in the last 2 months. Advertising the existing used cars on his yard at heavily discounted prices - a tsunami of used cars is going to hit the market in a months' time.

Rental car companies are stuck with the contract they have with the car companies (not allowed to sell until certain mileage are reached) which are being re-negotiated. There are several thousand new(ish) cars which are sitting in car-parks which will rust away unless sold.

Big losses ahead, I would say, from car dealers in the year ahead.