TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[peat]

is it really a Turners thread issue though

wont Turners just sell EV;s

[Beagle]

I listened to this podcast yesterday and the guest was Cathie Wood from Ark Investment Funds. She was saying that batteries are exponentially getting better whilst also becoming cheaper. Much like computers. Basically she was saying in the not too distant future EVs are clearly going to be much cheaper than ICE vehicles and performance to boot.

Very disruptive technology that is rapidly changing. (The Ark Innovation ETF 1 year return is up 175% so she clearly knows her stuff).

She compared it to how the first genome sequencing was completed in early 2000's and took 13 years and $2b to complete. Now you can do it for $50 and it only takes a couple of hours. Exponential growth eh.

People have been singing off this "song sheet" for a decade now since the first Nissan Leaf came out in 2011. There is no retail evidence in N.Z. in the last 10 years that economies of scale and cost reduction have generated any reduction in the price. A Nissan Leaf was $59,995 in 2011. They're still $59,995 in 2021. Hmmm...

Good point Peat...I think it ended up in here because the Turners guy had something to say about it.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

People have been singing off this "song sheet" for a decade now since the first Nissan Leaf came out in 2011. There is no retail evidence in N.Z. in the last 10 years that economies of scale and cost reduction have generated any reduction in the price. A Nissan Leaf was $59,995 in 2011. They're still $59,995 in 2021. Hmmm...

Good point Peat...I think it ended up in here because the Turners guy had something to say about it.

I wouldn't buy a leaf (next car will be a Tesla*), but at least the leaf has improved from 117km range in 2011 to 364km max range today (so the product has got a lot better, but not cheaper yet, as the market has demanded more range rather than cheaper prices so far).

(*The entry level "standard range" Tesla gets 500km)

[Beagle]

I wouldn't buy a leaf (next car will be a Tesla*), but at least the leaf has improved from 117km range in 2011 to 364km max range today (so the product has got a lot better, but not cheaper yet, as the market has demanded more range rather than cheaper prices so far).

(*The entry level "standard range" Tesla gets 500km)

Your previous point was a good one (vehicle manufacturers ceasing production by certain dates). I know the 62 Kw/hr Leaf has a longer range but the older tech 40 kw/hr (mutton dressed up as lamb ?) that Nissan N.Z. are retailing here is good for only 270 km's and is now actually $61,995. https://www.nissan.co.nz/vehicles/br...ange/leaf.html

I saw an interesting Youtube wherein someone tried towing a very modest caravan with a Tesla Model X and it absolutely destroyed the range. My point is that we're not seeing the retail price becoming affordable after a whole decade and there are no electric vehicle currently made within a suitable price point for rural use that can tow a 3.5 ton load which is what farmers need.

Anyway....we can carry on this discussion on the off market EV thread. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...-turning-point
(I still can't see the turning point nearly 4 years after posing the question).

[Biscuit]

..... Turners who will have a robust market for whatever vehicles are realistically priced for the foreseeable future.

Ofcourse, if we need to reduce emissions and if ICE-alternatives are not economical or practical, there must be some possibility that there will be no "realistically priced" vehicles for Turners to flog?

[iceman]

I wouldn't buy a leaf (next car will be a Tesla*), but at least the leaf has improved from 117km range in 2011 to 364km max range today (so the product has got a lot better, but not cheaper yet, as the market has demanded more range rather than cheaper prices so far).

(*The entry level "standard range" Tesla gets 500km)

Sorry to put this response on the TRA thread if it doesn't belong here, but I'm curious as why you've decided that your next car will be a Tesla. For the last 6 months I've been studying EVs to replace my PHEV later this year, including taking Tesla and others for a test drive. Tesla is now close to the bottom of my list !

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sorry to put this response on the TRA thread if it doesn't belong here, but I'm curious as why you've decided that your next car will be a Tesla. For the last 6 months I've been studying EVs to replace my PHEV later this year, including taking Tesla and others for a test drive. Tesla is now close to the bottom of my list !

Range (they have the best range, and the best purchase price vs range ratio)
The Tesla supercharger network (good to have these high speed chargers available in addition to other charging soltuions)
Performance (they have the best performance and efficiency)
Depreciation (They have high resale value)
Safety (they have the best safety rating of any car available)
Servicing (as the most popular new EV sold in NZ, easier to get support)
Future optionality (the car being ready to potentially turn into a fully self driving vehicle with a future software update)

In saying all that I am waiting for the price to be corrected for the local market - a straight conversion of the US price to NZD price, plus GST, should see the model 3 start at $60k rather than the $75k price currently.

[iceman]

Range (they have the best range, and the best purchase price vs range ratio)
The Tesla supercharger network (good to have these high speed chargers available in addition to other charging soltuions)
Performance (they have the best performance and efficiency)
Depreciation (They have high resale value)
Safety (they have the best safety rating of any car available)
Servicing (as the most popular new EV sold in NZ, easier to get support)
Future optionality (the car being ready to potentially turn into a fully self driving vehicle with a future software update)

In saying all that I am waiting for the price to be corrected for the local market - a straight conversion of the US price to NZD price, plus GST, should see the model 3 start at $60k rather than the $75k price currently.

Thanks for your reply. Continue doing your homework. You may be surprised.

[HCR20]

I listened to this podcast yesterday and the guest was Cathie Wood from Ark Investment Funds. She was saying that batteries are exponentially getting better whilst also becoming cheaper. Much like computers. Basically she was saying in the not too distant future EVs are clearly going to be much cheaper than ICE vehicles and performance to boot.

Very disruptive technology that is rapidly changing. (The Ark Innovation ETF 1 year return is up 175% so she clearly knows her stuff).

She compared it to how the first genome sequencing was completed in early 2000's and took 13 years and $2b to complete. Now you can do it for $50 and it only takes a couple of hours. Exponential growth eh.

Yes but that is about technology and innovation driving behaviour change vs. change that is govt mandated. An important distinction IMO.

[Beagle]

Ofcourse, if we need to reduce emissions and if ICE-alternatives are not economical or practical, there must be some possibility that there will be no "realistically priced" vehicles for Turners to flog?

If the academic boffins in their ivory towers do actually convince the Govt to stop us importing any new ICE vehicle by say 2035 there will still be a mass market for second hand ICE vehicles well into the 2050's and there's always going to be a big market for used vehicles in N.Z. of whatever type of energy propels them as used cars is all the vast majority of Kiwi families can afford to buy. Turners are now the biggest and most trusted used vehicle retailer and have a very bright future in my opinion. I am forecasting fully imputed quarterly dividends of 5 cps (20 cps per annum going forward, 27.78 cps gross incl of imputation credits), which gives a forecast gross yield of 8.55% @ $3.25.