TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Biscuit]

If the academic boffins in their ivory towers ......

Can you actually name an academic study you disagree with?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

If the academic boffins in their ivory towers do actually convince the Govt to stop us importing any new ICE vehicle by say 2035 there will still be a mass market for second hand ICE vehicles well into the 2050's and there's always going to be a big market for used vehicles in N.Z. of whatever type of energy propels them as used cars is all the vast majority of Kiwi families can afford to buy. Turners are now the biggest and most trusted used vehicle retailer and have a very bright future in my opinion. I am forecasting fully imputed quarterly dividends of 5 cps (20 cps per annum going forward, 27.78 cps gross incl of imputation credits), which gives a forecast gross yield of 8.55% @ $3.25.

I agree that turners will do well regardless of whether they are selling ICE or EV cars. I think the concern about people who buy sub-$10,000 cars not being able to afford 2nd hand EVs in the $10k-20k range will work itself out (to tuners benefit) as it quickly becomes apparent that the extra cost of buying the 2nd hand EV is more that made up for by the reduced fuel & servicing costs. In other words if you are saving thousands of dollars a year on running costs, then it works out cheaper to get a bigger auto loan to pay for the EV - and when its time to trade in again you have a more valuable car.

I hope they go with the "feebate" option proposed last time, which provided a cash subsidy for both new & used low emission vehicles (and carve out an exception for farm vehicles etc until low emission options are available)

[Biscuit]

...... In other words if you are saving thousands of dollars a year on running costs, then it works out cheaper to get a bigger auto loan to pay for the EV - and when its time to trade in again you have a more valuable car.

That's a very good point.

[Beagle]

Can you actually name an academic study you disagree with?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-count.../?ref=readmore

My point is quite simple. We have seen no evidence whatsoever in the last 10 years of the much touted theory that mass production of EV's will bring the price down.
They remain vastly higher than their ICE powered comparative vehicle. Forcing people to adopt EV's on all the available tangible evidence today is going to cause a lot of hardship to N.Z. families.

I have run the numbers on EV's and they don't work on a cost benefit analysis, nowhere even remotely close yet. People are buying EV's at the moment, in my opinion, mainly to make a "statement".
Planting a whole lot of trees would make a more enduring statement with much more enduring effect and at a tiny fraction of the price. Those with hundreds of trees on their properties already are well entitled to think they're already doing their bit, (in my opinion), which is where I am coming from.

Anyway...perhaps lets get back to Turners and that wonderful 8.55% gross forecast yield.

Here's a good place to continue the discussion on EV's if anyone wants to keep talking about them https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...-turning-point or global warming if that's your thing https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l-Warming-quot

[Antipodean]

The faster that EV's are taken up in NZ, the sooner the government will need to consider starting and/or expanding RUC's for EV's. They are already scheduled to be incurred from end of this year (may be extended again though?), but make sure to consider that into running costs in any case if you want to be fully prepared.

One additional point to consider is insurance. Many EV's, particularly the higher end Tesla and iPace etc. are likely to be premium loaded compared to similarly costed ICE vehicles. As the replaceable parts are typically both harder to find and more expensive that their counterparts. Not too mention all the extra electronic goodies that are distributed throughout the chassis. This leads to both higher claim costs in general, and a higher likelihood of total loss.

Seen quite a few EV's on the Turners lot when I was looking for a vehicle last year. At that point for me the sums didn't match up and a ICE vehicle was selected, but don't see much difference for Turners if they move with NZ and stock all the flavours of EV's based on demand. Regardless of what pushes it forward, NZ needs individual point to point transport for the foreseeable future IMO. Our dispersed mass transit and wide population distribution just isn't ready for alternatives.

[Biscuit]

Regardless of what pushes it forward, NZ needs individual point to point transport for the foreseeable future IMO. Our dispersed mass transit and wide population distribution just isn't ready for alternatives.

I hold shares in TRA and also have used them to buy an old banger for one of my offspring and they a good company IMHO. You may be right about the immediate future but there is clearly disruption coming to transportation at a rapid rate. The combination of autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles is likely going to provide a vastly cheaper transportation option than personal vehicle ownership for many people.

[Rawz]

I hold shares in TRA and also have used them to buy an old banger for one of my offspring and they a good company IMHO. You may be right about the immediate future but there is clearly disruption coming to transportation at a rapid rate. The combination of autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles is likely going to provide a vastly cheaper transportation option than personal vehicle ownership for many people.

I agree and I would like/hope Turners are the ones to own the fleet of autonomous vehicles, or ride share vehicles when this kicks in many many years down the track.

[Biscuit]

I agree and I would like/hope Turners are the ones to own the fleet of autonomous vehicles, or ride share vehicles when this kicks in many many years down the track.

Much more likely Tesla and maybe not that many years down the track.

[sb9]

Referencing to CMO's trading update today, should add further strength to TRA's earlier profit upgrade and may even see another upgraded guidance from them.

[Beau]

Trading back down below where it was prior to upgrade announcement, CMO trading update doesn’t appear to give any strength to TRA.