TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Beagle]

Is this the third profit upgrade ? Nice signal with the 6 cent quarterly dividend about the robustness of current operations. Seems they have rising confidence about FY22.
Lots to like but I agree that Salt will probably continue to rain on the parade for a while.

[BlackPeter]

Is this the third profit upgrade ? Nice signal with the 6 cent quarterly dividend about the robustness of current operations. Seems they have rising confidence about FY22.
Lots to like but I agree that Salt will probably continue to rain on the parade for a while.

... and who knows, maybe they even know what they are doing? Turners clearly had a great time thanks to Covid restrictions ... how much longer is the party going to last?

Big funds need to sell into an uptrend, and they better are done with the selling before the tide turns ...

[Rawz]

'At least $35m NPBT'. One would think they would leave room for some upside so say $36m NPBT.
$36m*0.72= $25.92m NPAT
$0.3030 EPS.
Current price this morning $3.29 after the bump = P/E 10.79

If the market re-rates them:

11 P/E= $3.33 sp
12 P/E= $3.64 sp
13 P/E= $3.94 sp
14 P/E= $4.24 sp

[Beagle]

Nice work Rawz. Does look cheap and with plenty of potential for more profit growth into the foreseeable future. I can foresee $40m next year just on the $4m in annual ongoing fixed cost savings they talked about in their last full presentation. 20 cps fully imputed annual dividend next year definitely on the cards.

[Beagle]

... and who knows, maybe they even know what they are doing? Turners clearly had a great time thanks to Covid restrictions ... how much longer is the party going to last?

Big funds need to sell into an uptrend, and they better are done with the selling before the tide turns ...

2-3 years of global supply chain problems in the new car industry in my opinion provides strong tailwinds for the used car industry.

[sb9]

'At least $35m NPBT'. One would think they would leave room for some upside so say $36m NPBT.
$36m*0.72= $25.92m NPAT
$0.3030 EPS.
Current price this morning $3.29 after the bump = P/E 10.79

If the market re-rates them:

11 P/E= $3.33 sp
12 P/E= $3.64 sp
13 P/E= $3.94 sp
14 P/E= $4.24 sp

You hit the nail on its head, yes they seem to be holding back on further upside just to be on safe side. As it stands currently, there's no reason why this should not trade at least around $3.50+.

[BlackPeter]

2-3 years of global supply chain problems in the new car industry in my opinion provides strong tailwinds for the used car industry.

Just reading the recent Daimler annual report. In the outlook section they say that while they expect still some supply chain problems in Q1, they think that the industry will catch up well before the end of 2021; This - by the way is quite compatible with what Infineon (one of the big semiconductor companies) are saying ...

I don't mind either way, but I am not sure whether I would derive from that many happy years for second hand dealerships ...

Discl: holding DAI and INF;

[Beagle]

Plenty of other favorable indicators in their recent presentation if you're interested mate. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...850/335937.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Plenty of other favorable indicators in their recent presentation if you're interested mate. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...850/335937.pdf

Yeah I have seen that. Obviously - one needs to moderate these positive factors a bit. From memory - their 2018 and 2019 reports didn't look that ugly either - quite different to their SP development at that time.

But I think it is fair to say that they are not the only company which does not really know the future, and hey - rattling the cage and emphasis on the positive is every boards business, isn't it? :

Just one other thing - if you look at their revenue development (slide 6, top right) ... it would not be unimaginable that 2019 was the peak, wouldn't it? BTW - this would be consistent with the analyst predictions in marketscreener (not that analyst predictions are more often right than wrong, but hey ...).

Of course - I don't know either how they will develop, but I think it is fair to say that they are currently closer to the next top than they are to the next bottom :

[BlackPeter]

... BTW - did you notice that their NTA is quite minute? That's what high liabilities and high intangibles do to one's balance sheet. I know, this is how finance companies operate, but still - will their revenues still look that flash when interest rates go up?