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  1. #6911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I agree that there is a real tendency for people to want to live for today because who knows what tomorrow will bring. I did a ton of research on new campervans earlier this year and read 101 reviews and reached a conclusion about what I thought was the best model for us. I spoke with the importer 3 days before the Caravan and Motorhome show in Auckland and he said, don't worry, we have 5 of that model coming in November, there's not going to be a problem. By the time I arrived at the show on Saturday morning for my first personal inspection to confirm my purchase they had all sold out.

    They have more coming in 2022 but can't give me a price or date due to exploding shipping rates and possible further lockdowns in Germany. One thing is for sure...its going to be a LOT more than $178,000 that I was hoping to buy one for at the show, most probably well over $200,000 We hope to hire that model this summer and decide from there.
    We need to be absolutely sure this is the right one for us if we're going to go north of $200K.
    2-person tent from the warehouse start from $32 - available now!

  2. #6912
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg

    Using past 4 payouts - 20 cps cash = 4.67% + Imp Credits

    Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 27.78 cps = 6.49 % Gross


    I'm thinking a possibility that interims may stretch to 5c or 6c upwards for 21/22 year

    Working 3 x 5 c say+ 6c final forwards = 21.0 cps = 4.906% Cash yield

    In that scenario, Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 29.17 cps = 6.81 % Gross


    If quarterly payouts stretch to 6c + credits - Gross Annual Dividend yield (incl credits) looks
    like 7.78% on current SP


    Still pretty good with a good past track record, against current bank deposit rates
    Thank you for the calculations shared as I'm considering this one because of the dividends.

  3. #6913
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I am forecasting 22 cps in dividends for FY22 (22 / 0.72) = 30.56 cps gross. On $4.25 that gives a forecast 7.2% gross yield and I am expecting growth in earnings and dividends for the foreseeable future after that. This for a stock with a FY21 historical PE of 13.2, forecast FY22 PE of about 12. I think these are compelling metrics.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-07-2021 at 01:29 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #6914
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    yeh couldnt believe the opportunity yesterday picked up some more at 412, thx Mr Market.
    Last edited by peat; 15-07-2021 at 03:22 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #6915
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    yeh couldnt believe the opportunity yesterday picked up some more at 412, thx Mr Market.
    Well done ! I was a bit more circumspect and hoping to steal some for $4.00.

    Used cars up a whopping 14% in the last year https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...balloons-to-33
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #6916
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    Jeez, Turners dish out the cash pretty regularly eh

    Shout myself something tomorrow
    Last edited by winner69; 28-07-2021 at 02:37 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #6917
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    Craigs is optimistic about TRA in their latest report. They make up 10% of my portfolio. Growth and a good dividend return. What else do you want?

  8. #6918
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louloubell View Post
    Craigs is optimistic about TRA in their latest report. They make up 10% of my portfolio. Growth and a good dividend return. What else do you want?
    I distinctly recall them not being so previously (when the share price was a lot lower).
    However it is good for holders when a major broker who controls a lot of wealth says nice things, and just maybe they mean it.
    Although, perhaps they loaded up when they were dissing it and are now selling into the rally. You never know.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  9. #6919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Well done ! I was a bit more circumspect and hoping to steal some for $4.00.

    Used cars up a whopping 14% in the last year https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...balloons-to-33
    Enjoy the 2nd hand car market boom while these chip shortages exist for at least another year yet IMO...also from Bloomberg...

    "Take a look at cars to see the extent of the impact of supply chain shortages and the inventory drawdown on the GDP figure. We know that a shortage of semiconductors has hit car production and helped spark the surge in demand for used cars that has pushed up inflation. If fewer cars are being produced, then existing inventories of vehicles get drawn down to satisfy demand. Domestic auto inventories in the U.S. are now at their lowest since records began in 1967. By Barclays' estimates, motor vehicles accounted for about half of the total decline in U.S. inventories in the second-quarter. That means if the semiconductor shortage were to ease, you might expect to see a sizeable restocking of cars, which would in turn add a lot to GDP.

    Here's why it's going to take another year at least, also from Bloomberg:
    The Chip Shortage Keeps Getting Worse. Why Can’t We Just Make More?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...d=premium-asia
    Last edited by Davexl; 30-07-2021 at 11:11 AM.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  10. #6920
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    Further delays favouring used car sales:

    "Chip shortages that have held back automakers and computer manufacturers are getting worse. Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a semiconductor and taking delivery, increased by more than eight days to 20.2 weeks in July from the previous month. That gap was already the longest wait time since the firm began tracking the data in 2017. Shortages of microcontrollers, logic chips that control functions in cars , industrial equipment and home electronics, jumped in July."
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

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