TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[alokdhir]

think i mentioned under 20 fph was not bad value , i didnt buy any though ( my bad ) so probably why i didnt comment. i could have commented how good my pick was for a buy though i guess lol

Was not complaining buddy ...just observing and learning how to use the knowledge and opinions being dished out here ...

[BlackPeter]

and which stocks will revert up to the mean ? a2 has i guess what others?

We are deviating from the thread - and it depends as well on your time horizon.

But yes, I agree with the by alokhir suggested FPH. I see as well transport (particularly MFT) and I am holding / accumulating as well REITS (property syndicates as well as retirement villages) ... but latter might take still a bit of time (give or take a year) until they reached the property bottom. Overseas - plenty of companies building great stuff (like cars ) or useful chemicals are incredibly cheap and on an uptrend.

Maybe the car uptrend I talked about will help TRA as well (here we are back on track) ... but personally I assume that they first will need to get through the bottom of the promised recession (i.e. it will get worse before it gets better).

No view on A2 - any prediction on that is in my view pure speculation.

[blackie]

smaller (30-40 cars) car yards are closing up shop in increasing numbers now. very noticeable

[Jonette]

smaller (30-40 cars) car yards are closing up shop in increasing numbers now. very noticeable

Turners actually comment on this using a Monthly Reoprt datasheet they send out. The number of dealers was a specific topic a few months ago, it dropped below 3000 for the first time for many years, its now further down to 2,940.

There are of course a very large number of "home-dealers" selling directly on trademe from a private home - I came across one in rural Otaki with about 15 cars in the long grass, mostly less than 10 years old. These must be finding it tougher as the market is changing in response to cash availability.

Fewer registered dealers opens opportunities for Turners as the smaller dealerships are less able to compete in the typical lead up to Xmas when sales increase.

[winner69]

Turners actually comment on this using a Monthly Reoprt datasheet they send out. The number of dealers was a specific topic a few months ago, it dropped below 3000 for the first time for many years, its now further down to 2,940.

There are of course a very large number of "home-dealers" selling directly on trademe from a private home - I came across one in rural Otaki with about 15 cars in the long grass, mostly less than 10 years old. These must be finding it tougher as the market is changing in response to cash availability.

Fewer registered dealers opens opportunities for Turners as the smaller dealerships are less able to compete in the typical lead up to Xmas when sales increase.

How do one get this Monthly Report Sheet …..or is it secret squirrel stuff?

[Jonette]

How do one get this Monthly Report Sheet …..or is it secret squirrel stuff?

No, its shared, you have to subscribe to be told its updated, but it's here

https://www.turners.co.nz/globalasse...ember-2022.pdf

[Jonette]

Untitled.jpg

This chart (data from Waka Kotahi) is a comparison of second hand cars re-registered by traders vs the rest of the market. ie simply registered traders market share

its clear that traders do better as the year progresses., this year a little bit worse but caught up previous years in Dec. Note the scale, its done to exaggerate the differences which are quite small

[winner69]

No, its shared, you have to subscribe to be told its updated, but it's here

https://www.turners.co.nz/globalasse...ember-2022.pdf

Thanks Jonette

[blackie]

thank you Jonette. heaps of interesting data and graphs in those links

[Jonette]

If you find the Waka Kotahi data interesting, then try this. But it's a brain teaser, I'm not yet convinced of its value, but it may have enabled me to estimate TRA sales reasonably well over the last 4 quarters. Turners seem to manage stock very tightly to sales rates, achieving good returns when the market is tight or loose.
NB: This is simply a measure of supply, comparing NZ Market supply with Turners supply. Recall that Turners makes hay from buying stock of rental cars from various companies, that means they have lumpy stock increases, with a flow-on impact.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GeaXh/27/

If I add the sales data from Waka Kotahi, it gets a bit overloaded, but makes no sense to me yet, partly because their data is quarterly and delayed. However I expect the relationship between sales rates and stock turnover is more complicated than "it takes about a month to sell a car"