TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Jonette]

Bit surprising tbh with the housing market in the doldrums (https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-any-time-soon) 430,000 NZers behind in their debt repayments (https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...tting-pressure), and interest rates at their highest level for years. For how long, can Turners keep defying the macro-economic trends?[/QUOTE]

430,000 is close to 10% of the entire population, yet the article has "Consumer arrears rose to 11.9% of the active credit population". I suspect these numbers, they don't gel. Note the article chart shows the seasonal nature of debt and that at the same time in 2019, we had 12.2% in arrears, it is now only 11.9%.

Yes the property market is down, but not in the doldrums, the vast majority of owners bought before the bubble, so only interest rates impact them and rates are well below 2007 interest rates during a previous boom. My truckometer shows we are still spending flat out, so does the latest card data, so maybe we are not really in the doldrums as the RBNZ would like us to think. HH Income is growing at record rates, in some regions well above inflation, so maybe we just have the spending power.

Replacing a second hand car is not like buying a house, it is often done due to a necessity, eg the old car is bust. The rate of car deregistrations in increasing, suggesting that Turners is on a roll simply because too many people have held on to their dunger for too long.
Turners also benefited from rental company replacements a few months ago and will do from both the floods and the increase in debts - recall they have a business for credit control where they do the work for the Telco's. The linked article shows an increase in Telco debt, having that work return could be significant - recall the Telco's delayed credit controls during Covid.

[Louloubell]

Dividend of 23 cents expected this year. 5 cents received in the first quarter and 5 in the second. That leaves 6 cents upcoming in the third and 7 in the last quarter. And that is fully imputed. Yippie

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/409428

Turners Automotive Group (NZX/ASX: TRA) are pleased to announce that directors have declared a Q3 FY23 dividend of 6 cents per share (fully imputed) to be paid on 27 April 2023. The record date is 17 April 2023.

[bull....]

wonder how tra doing

One segment that is now really struggling is used imports. Although they sold 9681 vehicles in March, that was -60% lower than the record high level from March a year ago (which was boosted by a rush to beat new regulations). The annualised rate of sales for used imports has dropped to just 90,300, and this is its lowest since July 2013. It was at an annual rate of 137,000 in March 2022, but that is well lower than the all-time highest annual rate of 166,000 in 2017. It is a sector that has faded markedly over the past year.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...tric-car-sales

[Louloubell]

I think Turners are doing very well indeed. There is a clear trend in a decreasing number of second hand car dealers and Turners does not rely on importing vehicles. 90% of their vehicles are locally sourced. My thinking is that these two factors compensate for the recession we are in. So, no new record revenues or profits, but steady as last year for 2023 and 2024. These are my thoughts. And, I better not be wrong, as I have Turner shares galore
😃

[Sideshow Bob]

Went ex-divvy Friday and up 5c this morning. Nice!

[Louloubell]

I managed to get a few more @ $3.33 late yesterday and today. When is enough enough?

[BlackPeter]

I managed to get a few more @ $3.33 late yesterday and today. When is enough enough?

There is no enough in the tension between greed and fear. There is only "too much" or "not enough". Only the future will provide an answer as which it was.

Personally I would consider the risk that the second hand car market and more so the car finance business might first get worse before it gets better - and if you look into the trend - they are in a well established downtrend (not that I am always following TA ... ;

[Sideshow Bob]

NZX Virtual Investor event 10th May, including Todd Hunter.

https://nzx.us19.list-manage.com/tra...7&e=baeeaaa251

[Sideshow Bob]

FY announcement 23rd of May....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/410776