TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[alokdhir]

i dont know if i should believe that. if he like beagle they just say what ever fits there narrative. anyway 400k of shares traded last week at around current prices. 2 mil worth

IF it gets included in NZX50 ...it will be surely included in FNZ fund size $ 585 Mil ...even 1% will be $ 6 mil , NZG fund size $ 648 mil ...1% will be $ 7 mil and MDZ fund size $ 138 mil ....1% additional $ 2M maybe ...these are only Smart shares local ETFs ...maybe many foreign funds may also be tracking NZX50 index .

its safe to assume additional requirements for all these funds maybe of order of $ 25 mil worth of stock ...all this squeezed in 10 trading sessions starting from 4th Monday Dec 2023 ....yes many operators and brokers would have prepared to help funds get their requirements ...so your $8 mil traded can be half for this ...rest still need be done ....imo IF INCLUDED $ 5.20+ possible ...just my rough estimate ...and all know I am always very OPTIMISTIC ...

[Muse]

IF it gets included in NZX50 ...it will be surely included in FNZ fund size $ 585 Mil ...even 1% will be $ 6 mil , NZG fund size $ 648 mil ...1% will be $ 7 mil and MDZ fund size $ 138 mil ....1% additional $ 2M maybe ...these are only Smart shares local ETFs ...maybe many foreign funds may also be tracking NZX50 index .

its safe to assume additional requirements for all these funds maybe of order of $ 25 mil worth of stock ...all this squeezed in 10 trading sessions starting from 4th Monday Dec 2023 ....yes many operators and brokers would have prepared to help funds get their requirements ...so your $8 mil traded can be half for this ...rest still need be done ....imo IF INCLUDED $ 5.20+ possible ...just my rough estimate ...and all know I am always very OPTIMISTIC ...

So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).

Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).

I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.

Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.

Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!

Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=Muse;1031805]So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).

Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).

I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.

Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.

Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!

Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...[/QUOTE

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/me...nts/#indexNews

It will show here ...NZX announcement will be first to show ...dated 1st Dec 2023 ...but dont know the exact time ...surely after market close ...comes from Sydney office if last announcement is the cue .

Yes ..will be fun ...hopefully it will do better then HLG as its on UPTREND on fundamental basis also unlike HLG at that time ...just like GTK ...results were great and that leading to bigger inclusion pop ...I reckon

[bull....]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1031809]

So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).

Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).

I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.

Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.

Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!

Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...[/QUOTE

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/me...nts/#indexNews

It will show here ...NZX announcement will be first to show ...dated 1st Dec 2023 ...but dont know the exact time ...surely after market close ...comes from Sydney office if last announcement is the cue .

Yes ..will be fun ...hopefully it will do better then HLG as its on UPTREND on fundamental basis also unlike HLG at that time ...just like GTK ...results were great and that leading to bigger inclusion pop ...I reckon

yrp hlg had a pop on inclusion then a selldown 3 days later and then a pop but never regained the high's of the pop. now steady share price surprisingly

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=bull....;1031837]

yrp hlg had a pop on inclusion then a selldown 3 days later and then a pop but never regained the high's of the pop. now steady share price surprisingly

Here we are talking about pop of inclusion now ...also difference being as mentioned in my above post ...HLG fundamentals were weak at inclusion while TRA is totally opposite ...expecting bigger POP

[bull....]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1031846]

Here we are talking about pop of inclusion now ...also difference being as mentioned in my above post ...HLG fundamentals were weak at inclusion while TRA is totally opposite ...expecting bigger POP

actually it turned out hlg fundamentals were good when they posted results. as i said surprising to me considering retail in general.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=bull....;1031848]

actually it turned out hlg fundamentals were good when they posted results. as i said surprising to me considering retail in general.

MFT also posted great results ...but they are historic ...next results which matter mate ...u know better then me ...now MFT posted worst results but SP zooming ...got the drift buddy

[bull....]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1031851]

MFT also posted great results ...but they are historic ...next results which matter mate ...u know better then me ...now MFT posted worst results but SP zooming ...got the drift buddy

is that your load at 4.85 ? is that the pop level

[see weed]

This is my view of it. This is just a passing thought. I do not trust the depth. It could be a lot of big holders with floating big orders to sell at around 4.85 to $5, just to keep the sp stable. Next week after the announcement tomorrow you may see those orders float away and disappear so then there is a clear run up to 4.85 and beyond to $5 just a theory I maybe wrong.

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir ….you on duty all night and will post outcome as soon as announcement?

Thanks in advance and