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Thread: DGL

  1. #21
    Junior Member Kryptor's Avatar
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    Default Caution

    I say to long term holders be very careful about holding this stock. Who are the consumers of this 1 trick pony wine producer?

    Some day, I don't know when, but one day..the oyster bay fad will move over to the next thing.

  2. #22
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Not so flash the last couple days

  3. #23
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    UPDATE: Since the drama's of march and the fall from 2.80ish to 1.60ish DGL has treaded water between 160 and 180. To me it looks as though an uptrend is now in place starting from july the price is up from 1.60 to 1.90 and making higher highs and higher lows.

    I bought into this company because I believe they have a powerful brand in oyster bay and if they can execute the intl growth strategy well there is certainly the prospects of a takeover. I feel that in these times of wine commoditisation having a recognised brand will become more and more important.

    Be great to hear others views on the takover of OBV, the uptrend, or the general fundamentals and valuation of this co

  4. #24
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    Modandm, wondering if you are confusing oyster bay vineyards (which is a seperate public company but have DGL as biggest share holder) and DGL which own the oyster bay wine brand. Yes it is confusing.
    I like DGL because of the quality of the board and the cashflow.
    P/CF operating = 4
    P/CF Free = 10
    This is at todays SP of $1.90
    Last edited by forest; 08-12-2010 at 04:35 PM.

  5. #25
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    hi forest,

    no im aware that OBV is a seperate company - it is strange that DGL own the brand name isn't it. Anyway it seems as though DGL is taking over OBV anyway.

    Jim and co are highly regarded management I agree and the stock is certainly cheap on multiples as you suggest. Just had a further read of the recent presentation at the AGM - its positive while noting the FX and glut challenges. I feel that the NZD is fairly valued and am sick of hearing exporters bleat about it - get on with the job and be competitive at the new norm I say.

    What do you think of the company's growth prospects over the next 2-3years? Can they continue to grow in North America? I see this as a key driver for the company. Also it will be interesting to see if the new sparkling wines are successful - over the christmas period will be a real test.

    Lastly do you think they may become an attractive takover target to the likes of fosters wines (once spun off) or other big players? My hope is that their brand recognition continues to grow to a point where they are highly attractive.

    After all of this im considering increasing my holding - Its hard to find stocks to buy in NZ at the moment, and this one is very fairly priced imho for a growth story.
    Last edited by modandm; 09-12-2010 at 11:05 AM.

  6. #26
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    Even without growth this share is priced attractive (to me). So any growth is a bonus and I do think growth is likely to come even if it is slow over the next couple of years.

    A take over of DGL I think might not be so likely as Jim and sister own more than 50% of DGL, so between them they have control.

  7. #27
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    Daily ShareChat: Delegat
    By Jenny Ruth

    Friday 10th December 2010
    Text too small?

    Winemaker Delegat's reaffirming its profit guidance of between $23 million and $26 million for the year ending June, 2001 has caused Rob Mercer at Forsyth Barr to raise his forecast.

    Mercer now expects a $25.5 million net profit, up from his previous $23.9 million forecast.

    "We believe Delegat's is on track to achieve earnings towards the top end of its guidance," Mercer says.

    That's despite trading conditions for export wine companies remaining challenging.

    Delegat's 40% decline in EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) in the year ended June 2010 was mostly due to non-cash items, a 10% decline in averaged realised case price to $112.70 and a step-up in operating costs to support higher volumes, Mercer says.

    Delegat's meeting his forecast $44.1 million EBIT for the current year would be well up on the $27.3 million achieved last year.

    "The medium-term growth prospects remain substantial and there is further earnings upside from the current level to a global economic recovery," he says.

    If the New Zealand dollar depreciates towards mean levels against the Euro and US dollar, that should further stimulate earnings.

    "We believe the market has extrapolated an overly pessimistic view of Delegat's medium-term profit outlook based on perceptions of the wine industry," Mercer says.



    Recommendation: Buy.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by forest View Post
    Recommendation: Buy.
    no buyers left today?

  9. #29
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    Any comments on the half year report:
    http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/DGL/...-December-2010

    DGL commits to NPAT of 20.5-25.5m for the full year. NPAT growth of 9% vs the prior half year.

    Seems like a good result to me: 18% sales growth in UK/Europe yoy is good, but im a bit disappointed that Jim hasn't delivered in the US. Guess its a pretty tough market.

    Low hanging fruit has probably been picked for this company now and we will see a steady slow growth in the coming years. Still at its current SP and PE ratio it is a good conservative investment and a relative bargain.

    Doing the maths forecast FY11 EPS is 23c and at 1.95 (current SP) that puts it on a PE ratio of 8.5. Since you can expect ~6%pa growth as a safe call over the next 5 years the PEG ratio is 1.41. Pretty decent I would say. I think it's the liquidity premium that is holding this co down.
    Last edited by modandm; 23-02-2011 at 10:47 AM.

  10. #30
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    it would be great if someone could call the company and enquire as to how the sparkling wines are doing?

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