Thread: DGL

**modandm** · 16-03-2011, 12:13 PM

Im thinking DGL is going to outperform estimates with FY earnings. I read a news article saying NZ was doing better than Australia in the UK for wines growth yoy and now another article saying NZ wine into the US is growing rapidly.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ng-nation.html
he fastest-growing varietals were pinot noir, riesling and sauvignon blanc, which all rose more than 9 percent, according to Nielsen. In terms of imports, wines from Argentina and New Zealand had the biggest gains, at more than 24 percent.

The millennial generation -- consumers in their 20s and 30s -- are reaching for more traditional varietals and pricier bottles, he said.

“There’s no question that the millennial consumer is participating in the category at a much greater level than previous generations,” Stratton said. “The consumer is very much bringing wine into more occasions, and they are participating in the wine category in a more frequent basis.”

You have to think Oyster bay is getting some of that as a premier well known NZ wine.

**modandm** · 05-04-2011, 12:45 PM

Guys the interim result is out and its a strong result for DGL. The SP has grown for 190-230 over the past couple of months.

As per my prior posts DGL has had good traction in the US - case sales up 24% offset by a 13% decline is UK sales. Overall sales are off slightly and revenue up slightly.

*JUST REALISED THAT IS THE EXACT FIGURE USED IN THE BLOOMBERG ARTICLE!!! WOW

Operating EBIT of $30.0 million is $3.5 million greater than the same period in the prior year, while Operating EBITDA is $4.2 million ahead of the same period the previous year at $35.7 million.

NPAT is 15.8m - up 14%

The numbers are well ahead of analyst estimates - "DGL remains confident that its sales performance for the full year will be ahead of forecast"

A conservative full year EPS estimate is now 21c. which means EPS growth of 16%yoy. at 2.30 DGL now trades on a mixed forwards/back PE of 11 and a PEG assuming a 8% growth rate of 1.36.

Other positives are a $1.1m saving in admin expenses.

**modandm** · 05-04-2011, 12:47 PM

It always surprises me people complain of a lack of good opportunities on the NZX when a great growth at a value price play like this comes along nobody besides me and forest are interested.

**forest** · 06-04-2011, 04:51 PM

Modandm I think most people read about the limited profits most wineries make, not realising that by far most wineries are operated by people as a hobby.
Only a minority of the wineries are profesially operated with strong sales teams and proper spending disciplines. Those are likely to do quite well.
DGL with a FW P/E of about 11 and dividend of about 3.5% to us looks to good to pass by.

**modandm** · 11-04-2011, 05:50 PM

AND.. its in an uptrend phaderus would be proud of!

**bryndlefly** · 03-06-2011, 02:24 PM

DGL shareprice has dropped about 5% in last couple of days - any reason for that? Is it the high NZ dollar? or just volatility

**Lizard** · 31-12-2011, 10:46 PM

Originally Posted by modandm 11-Apr-11

AND.. its in an uptrend phaderus would be proud of!

... and then a downtrend...then an uptrend... then a downtrend...

OBV holding up okay though.

Quite like DGL - though not convinced about the wines. If they had a little less debt, they'd be more convincing... tempting at these prices ($2.05), but still sailing into the wind.