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  1. #2781
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    I am not 100% sure what you mean by social mobility. If it means both parties need to come to a common ground then yes.

    My husband is 69 and has started having medical problems. He still works and I want him to finish up with work. He feels that if he did they would be homeless within a few years. Later you find he has a freehold house and 4 million dollars???? Always planning for the just in case. It is built into them.
    Social Mobility for me means "equality of opportunity" or the extent to which people have the same chances to do well in life regardless of the socio-economic background of their parents, age, sexual orientation, race, ethnicity, birthplace, or other circumstances beyond their control.

    Regarding the 69 year old, I wonder how happy his marriage is. There might be reasons other than financial to hide at work.
    Last edited by Aaron; 29-01-2024 at 10:31 AM.

  2. #2782
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Social Mobility for me means "equality of opportunity" or the extent to which people have the same chances to do well in life regardless of the socio-economic background of their parents, age, sexual orientation, race, ethnicity, birthplace, or other circumstances beyond their control.

    Regarding the 69 year old, I wonder how happy his marriage is. There might be reasons other than financial to hide at work.
    Thanks for the clarification

    My only concern about people having the same chances, that there are confusions when you look at the likes of how John Key and how he got wealthy, from a solo mother on the benefit... There will be many others who did get rich and came from a bad socio-economic background. If they can do it why not anyone. Some part of me feels that if you want to make it work you will, but it has to start young.

    It may come down to their motivation and own personalities rather than just being raised by a wealthy background. I also have articles of millionaires from lotto who lost it all within years.

    I was told by people I sounded like a twat when I said I ate baked beans and spagetti for dinner for approximately 2 years so I could afford my mortgage payments. Who's the twat now. Sorry I do sound like a twat now.

    The 69 year male old sounds nuts or his wife is lol

  3. #2783
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    Thanks for the clarification

    My only concern about people having the same chances, that there are confusions when you look at the likes of how John Key and how he got wealthy, from a solo mother on the benefit... There will be many others who did get rich and came from a bad socio-economic background. If they can do it why not anyone. Some part of me feels that if you want to make it work you will, but it has to start young.

    It may come down to their motivation and own personalities rather than just being raised by a wealthy background. I also have articles of millionaires from lotto who lost it all within years.

    I was told by people I sounded like a twat when I said I ate baked beans and spagetti for dinner for approximately 2 years so I could afford my mortgage payments. Who's the twat now. Sorry I do sound like a twat now.

    The 69 year male old sounds nuts or his wife is lol
    If you have made sacrifices to get ahead I can understand why you would be annoyed by people moaning but are not willing to make any sacrifice or adjustment to their lifestyle to get ahead.

    It is just things like monetary policy supporting/boosting asset (house) prices and causing inflation that are obviously not right and making things harder for those on the bottom and easier for those at the top. These sort of things annoy me.

  4. #2784
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    I hope all is ok with the KiwiBank loan book. Jarrod Kerr and his offsider’s are always the ones squealing the loudest about OCR increases.

    ——

    ‘Kiwibank economists are strongly disagreeing with market sentiment suggesting that further Official Cash Rate hikes from the Reserve Bank may be in the pipeline.
    Economists at the country's largest bank ANZ caused a considerable stir at the end of last week by changing their call and forecasting that the RBNZ would start hiking the OCR, currently paused at 5.5%, again at its review on February 28. The ANZ economists now pick a peak OCR of 6%.
    Following on from this forecast there was a flurry of activity in the wholesale interest rate markets, with the result that the market is now pricing in a 50-50 chance of an OCR hike in the February review.
    In Kiwibank's latest First View publication, chief economist Jarrod Kerr, senior economist Mary Jo Vergara and economist Sabrina Delgado say they "disagree" with the wholesale market pricing.
    "We think the RBNZ has done more than enough to get inflation back to [its target of] 2% and continue to call 5.50% as the peak in the OCR," the economists say.’

  5. #2785
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    I saw that in the paper. I guess all good economists know that low interest rates and easy money make the world go round. The more indebted we can get the younger generation the more we can pay useless bank economists.

    Alokhdir's been calling for cuts for a while now, hope his investments are doing OK. You don't need to worry so much how you allocate capital if it is free and readily available.

    You didn't get back to me on the lower taxes better country theory? Obviously National believe this whole heartedly as do a majority of the NZ voting public. Labour proved you can spend sh*tloads and not achieve anything, which is one angle of your argument I can agree with but the results globally don't seem to stack up.
    Last edited by Aaron; 13-02-2024 at 07:41 AM.

  6. #2786
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmbbrave View Post
    Doubles in price every 10 years? ie about 7% per year

    Thats a new one Duncan. It used to be 10% a year - ie doubles in price every 7 years.

    Do you still reckon property has doubled every 10 years from 1066 to 2006 and will do so from 2006 to 2056?

    Year average house price
    2006....400k
    2016....800k
    2026....1.6 m
    2036....3.2 m
    2046....6.4m
    2056....12.8m

    A house is considered expensive if it is 7 times the average wage.

    What are the chances of the average wage being $229,000 (1.6m/7 = 229k) in 2026?

    Pretty slim I'd say.

    If house prices keep doubling every 10 years no one will be able to afford to buy them.
    I like to refer back to this post from 2007 every couple of years to check how NZ's unaffordable housing is tracking.

    Article on stuff this morning stating houses have doubled in the last 10 years: https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350176...an-it-continue

    Before the OCR hikes NZ looked on track to get to the 1.6m by 2026.

    QV only has the average house price at 950K~ish now though so some way off right now.

    Between the flood of migrants and (eventually) decreasing interest rates still a chance to get to 1.6m. Most economists seem to think housing on the rebound this year.

    The housing ponzi scheme still going strong.

  7. #2787
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    Quote Originally Posted by unhuman View Post
    I like to refer back to this post from 2007 every couple of years to check how NZ's unaffordable housing is tracking.

    Article on stuff this morning stating houses have doubled in the last 10 years: https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350176...an-it-continue

    Before the OCR hikes NZ looked on track to get to the 1.6m by 2026.

    QV only has the average house price at 950K~ish now though so some way off right now.

    Between the flood of migrants and (eventually) decreasing interest rates still a chance to get to 1.6m. Most economists seem to think housing on the rebound this year.

    The housing ponzi scheme still going strong.
    Not going to happen by 2026 IMHO .. unless the NZD goes even further down in value because rates drop to near zero again... middle-class Kiwis just aren't making enough $$$ after ever increasing living costs ...FHB having to stump up even more for a first home unit etc ..
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  8. #2788
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Not going to happen by 2026 IMHO .. unless the NZD goes even further down in value because rates drop to near zero again... middle-class Kiwis just aren't making enough $$$ after ever increasing living costs ...FHB having to stump up even more for a first home unit etc ..
    RBNZ guarantees at least a 1-3% rise each year although as unhuman points out the RBNZ has spectacularly out performed their inflation targets with asset prices. Although assets do not form a big part of the CPI so maybe they do not measure it.

    Interest deductibility will return soon thanks to Chris and the team. I agree with it though, it is inflation targeting that seems to be what distorts things.

    This guy has an interesting take on things although he is talking about Australia.

    "The rental property sector in Australia is not a net tax payer. The deductions actually exceed the income.

    and that is with a capital gains tax.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-...ears/103465044

    Hopefully Chris can get the rental market back in order so landlords can get back to contributing very little to the nation. Guaranteed 2% tax free capital gains probably more like 7% and with Adrian at the helm mortgages are 6-7% easier to pay off each year, although the current return of interest rates has many moaning.

  9. #2789
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    Anecdotal admittedly, sad but I am reluctant to say true. As there is still the possibility of home ownership, but as sailorRob points out not a good investment and relies on current monetary policy settings to keep interest rates low and push up house prices faster than CPI inflation.

    National's policies will only exacerbate the problem, but what is the solution? I would suggest a 0% inflation target as a first start. Cut immigration to the bone. Look at a capital gains tax and investing that in housing. Sounds too hard and no political will to change as a certain sector of society is doing just fine.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3501...t-afford-house

    Australia but just some confirmation bias.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsE_-Fp6BQM
    Last edited by Aaron; 22-02-2024 at 08:03 AM.

  10. #2790
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post

    National's policies will only exacerbate the problem, but what is the solution? I would suggest a 0% inflation target as a first start. Cut immigration to the bone. Look at a capital gains tax and investing that in housing. Sounds too hard and no political will to change as a certain sector of society is doing just fine.
    Sounds like a good start. Lets get this country going with the people we have and not rely on import while we get lazier and lazier. 0-1% inflation target would be great. None of this 3-5% creep. Not sure if capital gains tax would be a thing or necessary with 0% inflation.

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