sharetrader
Page 269 of 270 FirstFirst ... 169219259265266267268269270 LastLast
Results 2,681 to 2,690 of 2692
  1. #2681
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    829

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers View Post
    Your entire post just goes to prove my points again. You just doubled down on what you’’d originally said. Prior to the large price falls we have seen, you would have said large price falls were impossible!
    The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates by 75 pbs, and we will have to keep raising as well in order to maintain the purchasing power of the NZD. I would say that a recession is now likely. How do you open the taps on immigration - to save the property market - in a recessionary environment when people would be losing their jobs(?) Your thinking is bizarre and is rooted in the pre-COVID / pre-inflation world that we no longer live in.
    Again, if governments had the power to stave off recessions then we would never have recessions! The belief that ‘the government will always bail me out’ is utterly misguided.
    Have you not recalled the actions during Helen Clark & John Key's reign over immigration? Recessions creates opportunities for people to move. For eg. they lose their job in the UK or in China and pick NZ to immigrate (and i'm speaking specifically the people that have the skills and meet the criteria to immigrate to NZ). Having a cousin that works in NZ Immigration, every tweak in the immigration policies comes from a reaction from gov't. When houses were depressed in price or appeared to during the GFC, NZ immigration opened up new categories to attract "wealthy buy your way into NZ" programs.

    You seemed to have missed the historic fact of NZ houses. Again, look at the real returns on house prices in NZ compared to abroad. Over a 30 year period it's placed NZ at the top of most unaffordable in terms of avg incomes. If there was any significant house bubble crash, then it would reset prices... but it has not and we have not seen any burst in housing prices. My hats off for the NZ gov't for all those decades for maintaining that status.

    Don't take my word on why houses gone out of control in NZ. Critics like Bernard Hickey has been talking about this over the decades. It's inaction by our gov't and if you look over the other thread here and you will see the same thing. None of the NZ gov't is serious about addressing affordable housing. They are only interested in keeping 'sustainable' housing which means, let's keep the gravy train rolling while the poor and needy are kicked off the tracks. Why? Because Jacinda Ardern said, "Majority of NZ retiree and investors hold their assets in houses... it would not be prudent to tax them". That was her excuse for not bringing in CGT on houses. So she did the next worse thing by implementing a 'bright line test' which she's extended it to 10 years ; which exacerbates the intent for buying houses as a vehicle for retirement as an investment fund. Like Kiwi Saver, it's investing for the long term. So any person that locks in a plan using houses will be difficult to exit if they sell before the 10 year threshold.

    Show me where are the large price falls on NZ housing? We are still far far higher than pre-pandemic prices.

  2. #2682
    Guru
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    3,627

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    ...
    Show me where are the large price falls on NZ housing? We are still far far higher than pre-pandemic prices.
    Yep. For the NZ government, no matter the colour, the housing market value has the priority for protection; the stock market is more expendable. So today NZ has a small stock market and a large & expensive residential property market, with riskier mortgage lending compared with many "peer" countries.

    Has NZ just set itself up for a bigger residential housing price crash though? Will NZers continue to be happy to allow immigration to support the real estate market as opposed to government policy change in other areas?
    Last edited by Bjauck; 20-06-2022 at 07:28 AM.

  3. #2683
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    1,010

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Yep. For the NZ government, no matter the colour, the housing market value has the priority for protection; the stock market is more expendable. So today NZ has a small stock market and a large & expensive residential property market, with riskier mortgage lending compared with many "peer" countries.

    Has NZ just set itself up for a bigger residential housing price crash though? Will NZers continue to be happy to allow immigration to support the real estate market as opposed to government policy change in other areas?
    The bloke still hasn’t answered the fundamental question around how you could have immigrants pouring in in a recessionary environment where people are losing their jobs.

    Some people believe in the tooth fairy, others believe that ‘the government can stop the property market from crashing’.

  4. #2684
    Guru
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    3,627

    Default

    Immigration during increasing unemployment has been previously justified on the basis that immigrants came with skills for which there was still a shortage and/or brought wealth that could be invested to provide employment.

    However did this just mean that NZ governments avoided the difficult and major reforms needed to train - and keep - people with appropriate skills, and to encourage more investment into productive areas as opposed to inflating the cost of land? What’s more did the immigrants with wealth end up doing the Kiwi thing and boost the demand for the purchase of houses and land, rather than invest in businesses with well paid employees, as investments with the greatest capital gains rather than maximum income productivity were sought? NZ has been towards the rear of the OECD for labour productivity gains.

    Interesting NZ review on well-being effect and immigration.
    https://www.productivity.govt.nz/ass...mmigration.pdf
    Last edited by Bjauck; 20-06-2022 at 03:48 PM. Reason: Link

  5. #2685
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    7,779

    Default

    Banks continue to spike rates higher I see Westpac now within weeks gone to 5.9% short term Fixed lending ... for those with less than 20% DEP ...
    CHN-5700% , WWI-2900% , CNB 2042% , POD 980% , MAY 760% , LRSOC 585% ,If only I sold the the peak!!!!

  6. #2686
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    2,204

    Default

    And 6 months deposit rates still around 2-3 %
    https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/te...-1-to-9-months

    Margins are ........?

  7. #2687
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    1,010

    Default

    Big recession coming. If you are willing to take on a huge mortgage and pay a boomer $1.2 million for a bog standard house in Auckland then you must be absolutely barking mad. The young (typically renters) are now leaving for Australia in droves. Who will help the retiring boomers and deluded speculators cash out all their gains?

  8. #2688
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    1,804

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers View Post
    Big recession coming. If you are willing to take on a huge mortgage and pay a boomer $1.2 million for a bog standard house in Auckland then you must be absolutely barking mad. The young (typically renters) are now leaving for Australia in droves. Who will help the retiring boomers and deluded speculators cash out all their gains?
    Immigrants.

  9. #2689
    Legend
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Sth Island. New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,875

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Immigrants.
    What colour?

  10. #2690
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    1,804

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    What colour?
    Does it matter.

    Personally I think 5million is just right for a country NZs size. Lets try something other than the constant growth model for the economy. Maybe something sustainable.

    Even if they are white and speak english they can all stay in their own countries imho.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •