minimoke-
Shrewd Crude. You’re doing exactly as I had predicted – trying to forecast the future fixed term interest rates. Lets sit back and watch and do nothing while trying to pick the optimal buy point – which will incidentally pass you by because the goal posts will keep shifting for you . You’ll be like the pokie player thinking that one more week delay will bring you the .1% drop in rates to be the real deal. Keep doing the numbers
Minimoke,
You make it sound like im missing a great opportunity for not buying a house now?

Life is all about taking risks !... buying a house, paying weekly payments for 30years is no risk...Thats the safe option in life...
Im a risk taker... And the first major risk I'll take on is ridding this downturn for all its worth...

its very simple, the goal is to save 10years or more off the loan term...
Buying a first a house would likely be the most important decision of my life, therefore I would like to buy at the best time...buying at lower interest rates is a bonus only... and I will buy on the way up, I will explain further...
....
Ive posted about timing the market before...
If try and buy at the absolute bottom, you will likely miss and prices will keep falling... If you buy as it starts to turn up then you will save the time you stood by and watched, you will identify the new trend, you will be better off...
I will buy my first house on the way up, and I reckon Ive got a few years...
sideways markets at the bottom makes you worse off with interest payments...
If in 5 months the market turns up then Im stuffed, I have no real income... I would have to pursue other avenues I have on offer...
I doubt that I would miss an opportunity if one came my way in a few years...
I see no great opportunity of a life time in housing now!...
I willnot be a 52 year old man with a house only... 25-30 year loan term is what Im currently realistically looking at at 600per week.....
... It is not my dream to be 50, with 10% house price growth mostly cancelled out by 8% interest rates-negative growth for the near term...
...
The cost of Renting is cancelled out by the amount of money I would not put into the house deposit, which could be used to make returns elsewhere....
trust me dude, I have no major dream to be in shares for the rest of my life.. id seriously rather be in housing and grind out those 20-30yrs..Im way smarter than that, And I know I wont have to... Ive got a few other avenues, and In a few years when I get into business, I will need the cashflow...
If I have a house gobbling up $600 a week, (400 of interest payments), then I will likely be very tight (If I dont get married)...
marriage is for another topic... it wont happen over night but it will happen...
The only chance I have in housing is if I can shave that 30yr loan in half, or down to 20years...I know its hard for a buff or someone already in housing to understand...
With falling house prices and falling interest rates, it is very much so possible...
Its no dream of mine to be 50 with one house...
I will have a house, the path to that house might have to be unconventional...it wont be a grinding depressing ride for me...
....
lastly, 30yrs ago it was only 3 yearly incomes to 1 house price...
at the peak it was 7 yearly incomes to 1 house price...
Dont tell me that it is no different today as it was 30years ago...
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PS-there is nothing wrong with forecasting interest rates...
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Lets hear some thoughts from some other potential future homebuyers?
Questions I have...
when are you looking to buy?
and what would house values have to fall to for you to consider a future in housing...?
remembering that how far prices fall represents how long loan term will be...
So final question is what do you think an appropriate loan term would be (years needed to pay the house off)?

.^sc