NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Crypto Crude]

strat-Wow Shrewdy you are really taking this TA thing on board. Dont let Tricha find out

May I ask what stats you are using for your TA analisis in the housing market?

Strat,
I am deadly serious about TA, but I have not done anything about it yet...
Im speaking pure off the top of my head and I have no stats to go from for the housing market, or any other market... im using a good dose of intuition only... it pretty much just flows straight out..
All my posts are based on this style...

It does not make sense buying a house now given that the housing market has fallen for only 6 months after the biggest bull market of all time...
The market willnot go straight down, there will be waves...
An interest rate cut, will cause some people go out an buy a house (usually the most desperate ones).... once that wave is churned through, the sell off continues until the next wave of good news with a short rally...

Im studying TA in November...
I follow pure sentiment, and intuition...
Im buying late next year, or early 2010...(at this stage, I will address the situation early next year)

any advice is greatly appreciated.. I do not accept advice such as its never a better time to buy than now...Or buy a house at any time, I am not a housing businessman....
I can time an entry into the market better than a bull can, because they are biased and are therefore short sighted....
Other advice would kindly be greatful....

What are the most important things I should look for when buying my first house?

.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

theres absolutely no point buying a house until the US market turns...
The New Zealand market is two to three years behind the US...
we are 6 months in and people are buying...
your mad, or your a housing businessman, (and therefore you are so good you will perform at any stage of the housing market)
This is true for the local Buff... Im not taking the mickey...
at this stage of the game, a first homebuyer must take every little chance in an effort to save up to 10 years off the total loan term... once your setup running with 10 houses--> interest rates, fixed or floating, bottom of market or mid market, are neither here nor there...
it dont matter... it really really matters when your just making your first move... buffs tend not to understand idea very welll...

anyway, id appreciate any ideas for the question....
What are the most important things I should look for when buying my first house? thanks...

.^sc

[STRAT]

theres absolutely no point buying a house until the US market turns...
The New Zealand market is two to three years behind the US...
we are 6 months in and people are buying...
your mad, or your a housing businessman, (and therefore you are so good you will perform at any stage of the housing market)
This is true for the local Buff... Im not taking the mickey...
at this stage of the game, a first homebuyer must take every little chance in an effort to save up to 10 years off the total loan term... once your setup running with 10 houses--> interest rates, fixed or floating, bottom of market or mid market, are neither here nor there...
it dont matter... it really really matters when your just making your first move... buffs tend not to understand idea very welll...

anyway, id appreciate any ideas for the question....
What are the most important things I should look for when buying my first house? thanks...

.^sc

Im sure there isnt much you havent already given the once over Shrewdy except maby that you should be looking closer at the area/areas you intend to buy in. The market retrace is specific to certain areas. Some more than others some not at all. Your timing will need to reflect what is actually happening in your targeted areas. When the Market turns for the better it will be the better areas first Worst areas last.

What to look for? location location locayion LOL

Do ups can be more hassel than they are worth. They almost always come in over budget in terms of both $ and time.
Rent return and total expences. The math must add up if you wanht it to be a flexable investment. Say you decide to bugger off to China for 6 months. It needs to look after its self both financially and in terms of time input. Too many people dont include there own valuable time in assessments.

Full sections that are subdividable or in areas that may be due a zone change. You dont have to do the chop but the value will be there when you sell.

Lots of bedrooms and the worst houce in the best street you can afford.

Thats my 2c worth

If I were you I would be waiting awhile yet too.

[Financially dependant]

I came across this the other day, interesting data...

http://www.interest.co.nz/gallery12.asp

[Dr_Who]

FD, I think that graph has been distorted to paint a unrealistic picture.

I have some very good graphs that states the Ak area percentage change in house price index is starting to bottom out soon. It is in pdf form and I dont know how to copy and paste onto a SH post.

[STRAT]

FD, I think that graph has been distorted to paint a unrealistic picture.

I have some very good graphs that states the Ak area percentage change in house price index is starting to bottom out soon. It is in pdf form and I dont know how to copy and paste onto a SH post.

Hi Doc,
I have found most housing stats all but useless. Property and Area values are just too diverse to draw any useful conclusions. The only way I have found to estract any useful data has been to beak data down into suburbs and include detailed specs on each transaction.

[STRAT]

Shrewdy, this is a good site with a few smart cookies in the Membership including Olly Newland

http://www.propertytalk.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=80

[minimoke]

Im sure there isnt much you havent already given the once over Shrewdy except maby that you should be looking closer at the area/areas you intend to buy in. The market retrace is specific to certain areas. Some more than others some not at all. Your timing will need to reflect what is actually happening in your targeted areas. When the Market turns for the better it will be the better areas first Worst areas last.

What to look for? location location locayion LOL

Do ups can be more hassel than they are worth. They almost always come in over budget in terms of both $ and time.
Rent return and total expences. The math must add up if you wanht it to be a flexable investment. Say you decide to bugger off to China for 6 months. It needs to look after its self both financially and in terms of time input. Too many people dont include there own valuable time in assessments.

Full sections that are subdividable or in areas that may be due a zone change. You dont have to do the chop but the value will be there when you sell.

Lots of bedrooms and the worst houce in the best street you can afford.

Thats my 2c worth

If I were you I would be waiting awhile yet too.

SC Probably not a lot more to add to these great suggestions.

I’d be looking closely at the size of your cash deposit and likely net income (including from flatmates) Of your deposit – cut a chink aside for incidentals. Its surprising how the lawyer fees, rate bills and immediate fixer uppers (including tools) add up quickly and cash can be a useful tool for getting a good price. Alternatively be prepared to add these costs to your mortgagee and amortise over the period of your loan.

I’m still not clear if you intend living in this place or not. If you are then you will have difficulty claiming expenses as a business expense – not impossible, but you will have to look very carefully at how you structure things.

Obviously once you know your cash position and income you’ll know the size of the mortgage. I’ve said earlier don’t worry about the term of the loan – your going to be in debt a long time if you want to get into property. Get the biggest mortgage you can safely afford – this will give you more options. But make sure you allow for the risk of your loss of income.

Now focus on good suburbs with land. A poxy 450sqm section limits your future potential. I’d be going for the older house on the larger land rather than the new house on the smaller land. You’re going to need flatmates for a while so you’ll need a place that is marketable – so it needs to be close to their workplace and amenities. You’ll find a cheap place in Kaiapoi but a $80 cab fare home after a night out isn’t going to appeal!.
And you need to get your nose out of your books and learn how to use a hammer, spanner and paintbrush. Start collecting decent tools – you’ll need them to save yourself the cost of a tradesman on the many simple jobs that will crop up.

[Crypto Crude]

Strat and Minimoke,
Thank you for your advice... I appreciate that...

Minimoke, I do intend on living in my first house...

strat, that forumn you directed me to looks diserted...
similar perhaps to the last Auckland meeting..

Dr Who, You can get in touch with me through PM and I'll post your graphs...

Financially dependant, hummm yes... some very interesting graphs and trends going on there...if anyone believes the housing market is bottoming out, then check out FD's link and look at the 2nd graph...
the 5th graph has gone off the chart... haha...
all very interesting...

.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

It is all so obvious what is going on. First of all house construction costs are going sky high placing young couples in vulnerable financial positions with home loans. The country economy is grinding to a halt placing young couples on the financial scrap heap. The loan sharks are going under with motgagee sales on properties in ever increasing numbers.
Fanny and Freddy May in America have been bailed out by the Govt which is a short term solution to a long term problem. We in NZ are in the same boat with people over extended waiting on the next hiccup before joining the mortgagee circuit.
The very same people who understand the property market are buying up at below cost prices waiting on the market to turn in a few years, then cream the same silly punters all over again. Like i keep telling SHREWDY a bargain can be found in any market, if you keep looking. If you take all the money from everybody and give it out in equal proportions the very same people will be filthy rich or filthy poor in a few short years. Macdunk