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  1. #1301
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Georege, usefully we will have shrewdies reference point of $330,000 house in January 07 (which was pretty much the median price at the time) with a 9.5% floating interest rate. My pick is that in Jan 09, 10, 11 and on some of us will have been right and others will have missed some great opportunities – but time will tell.
    The people in SHREWDYS position who missed the chance of getting on the property ladder when deposits were low are now in the hopeless position of saving more for a much higher deposit, by which time the market will trend up leaving them behind once more. This has happened in the past over, and over again. They also think its smart to gamble with interest rates, forgetting that if they get back to 20% they go broke, against if they trend down a few percent they gain a few bob. The housing market in NZ will trend up faster than ever next time, once this money crisis is over. The first home buyers who were to smart to take advantage of low deposits because they thought the market would drop, are now left as tenants to the more astute. Macdunk

  2. #1302
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    George, usefully we will have Shrewdies reference point of $330,000 house in January 07 (which was pretty much the median price at the time) with a 9.5% floating interest rate (edit - on a really low deposit 5% would have done it - or take Westpaks 110% mortgage). My pick is that in Jan 09, 10, 11 and on some of us will have been right and others will have missed some great opportunities – but time will tell.
    Hi yall,
    I bought another rental early 07 on a minimal deposit which is now not possible as banks have tightened up on deposit size even for those who show good cash flow. It was I thought was a very good price at the time. Its not looking so cheap now but.....
    With interest fixed at 7.8% for 5 years( this may turn out to be high in the future but as macca says I can account for my outgoings for another 4 years. No ugly surprises ) it wipes its own arse. No ongoing additional capital required. Its set and forget. I will hold it at least 10 years so what happens to the market and the economy between will slide by unnoticed short of rents dropping by 50%

    If the next RE boom hasnt arrived within the next 10 years I would be most surprised. If the property goes up by only 50% over the next 10 years that would be 500% on initial capital investment.

    Safe as houses
    Last edited by STRAT; 22-12-2008 at 09:34 AM.

  3. #1303
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    Wow, got a few quick bites!

    Minimoke...you seem to think you have an answer for everything.

    Your analysis on their data technique was incomplete. I believe Christchurch gives a good representation as its pretty much bang on the average NZ house prices. Banks lending criteria don't change throughout the country, and therefore should be able to extrapolated over a wider population.

    The analysis on 75% may be slightly out, but not if your a distressed seller. Good scare tactics though huh?

    Are the examples out of whack too? 530k to 420k? Ouch...those owners wont be buying in a hurry!

    But as you say, they must have been reading posts. 'More downward pressure on prices are expected.' Thats the overall opinion that we should be after? December statistics will be interesting.

    Mr Devine, it was my brother in law and sister. Sounds like you have a vested interest....watch and learn buddy. House prices will continue to fall. So far us first home buyers have been right all the way through this thread. You say..'they may fall another 10%...' do you mean in nominal or real terms? If in nominal terms, add inflation, and you will have 20% over 3 years. Add on the 10% already lost and theres your 30% that I've been talking about for quite a while now. Bernards talking of another 30% could be out a bit...depends if hes talking nominal or real terms.

    Duncan, I dont even bother listening to your advice on housing anymore. You cant answer any questions...bleat the same old stuff all the time! Maybe we'd get more out of you face to face....next Auckland meeting, you better not pike! That goes for Minimoke...where are you at the CHCH meetings?!

    George, you give a surprisingly honest unbiased opinion. Good on you. I'm sure you will be fine since as you say, your knocking it down as fast as you can!

    For everyone...can you honestly say, its best to try buy now, or with the current outlook to buy in 1 year time?

    I myself cant buy now, and 1 year time probably will be me depending on the outlook at the time.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  4. #1304
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    Default remember this post mackdunk

    shrewd-
    mackdunk is deep in this with us...

    mackdunk,
    You have not removed yourself from current market losses like you say you have...

    you admittedly locked in higher fixed interest rates, which are now being used to support bank balance sheets as they struggle with the current market situation... So you sold your shares, but you pay much higher locked interest rates... To be completely honest you have transferred your losses to different asset classes...
    so dont be giving us a hard time... I know im right... you taught me the insights too well... I too gave you grave warnings...
    you were tipping your position on interest rates at the peak of the cycle...

    If we losen up all the assumptions, you are effectively indifferent between the losses on the sharemarket compared to losses on fixed term rates (as housing uses other peoples money, and is leveraged)...
    come on mackdunk... fess up?...


    peace out... lets remain respectful towards other posters please...
    If you want to pull us apart then please address us properly...
    Your mate Shrewd keeping all facts open and honest...
    peace...
    mackdunk-



    SHREWDY we are getting a bit off topic here will reply tonight on the property thread.




    The price of oil cant get much lower without a cut back in production which in turn will create another price hike. Now is the time to buy barrels of top grade lubricant, and stick them in the shed to sell back later. That is a practical way to avoid a money crash or inflation which ever comes first, much safer than shares. Buy in bad times material things that hold their value, money is only a promise to pay stampted on a bit of paper. Macdunk

    mackdunk,
    You cant give me a hard time for not buying a house...
    I did not have a full time job as I just graduated last week...
    I did not have the income to support a loan...

    You cant pay me out about that...
    You can pay me out about being born two years too late...
    ...
    On another note you have explaining to do..

    your in this with us...
    Peace..
    im out...

    .^sc
    Last edited by Crypto Crude; 22-12-2008 at 10:26 AM.
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  5. #1305
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    Talking even a bird knows to build a nest first

    SHREWDY, I have reached the happy position in life of not having bank loans or owe money on anything. I only speak of the road that got me here. You may wish to travel a different route to this destination i only give you the benefit of my experience getting here.
    All the people that i know that were self made, and well off did it with property. Some had menial task jobs with low incomes, but still managed to get there.
    Share market crashes, property only downtrends, then gets back up to steeper uptrends.
    I think that 2008 will make you a much wiser investor on the share market, i only hope you wake up to how easy it is to make it with property. Have a happy xmas congrats on your graduation and whatever you do dont get stuck playing with one commodoty in this crazy market. Macdunk

  6. #1306
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by upside_umop View Post
    Wow, got a few quick bites!

    Minimoke...you seem to think you have an answer for everything.
    ..... That goes for Minimoke...where are you at the CHCH meetings?!
    Nope – just a view on some things. But backed mostly by evidence. Look at the evidence – not the tales of woe spouted by people trying to sell newspapers, web sites, media profiles or books.

    See back in 07 the Reserve bank reckons there was about $168b in bank loans covered by $614b in house assets. Where is the negative equity in this? We can take a 50% hit in the housing market and assets will still be worth more than debt. And that’s not even covering the twits who have booked their flash car, new boat, holiday home or car on the mortgage – why should the property market be tarnished by this extravagance.

    As for Christchurch meetings – I’m not sure my best flame retardant suit would do a decent job a seeing me leave in decent shape

  7. #1307
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shrewd Crude View Post
    mackdunk,
    You cant give me a hard time for not buying a house...
    I did not have a full time job as I just graduated last week...

    .^sc
    Shrewd - congrats on your graduation - getting a good education is the best investment of time and money a young person can make - and don't let anyone tell you it's not. There will be countless opportunities for you to get into realestate over your lifetime - the first of those opportunities is just around the corner probably in about 4-5 yrs time.

    You should really be comparing yourself with your peers rather than the likes of macdunk and minimoke
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  8. #1308
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    Talking I Have Been A Bad Bad Boy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mick100 View Post
    Shrewd - congrats on your graduation - getting a good education is the best investment of time and money a young person can make - and don't let anyone tell you it's not. There will be countless opportunities for you to get into realestate over your lifetime - the first of those opportunities is just around the corner probably in about 4-5 yrs time.

    You should really be comparing yourself with your peers rather than the likes of macdunk and minimoke
    MICK, Macdunk was nothing but a hooligan at SHREWDYS age. Fighting womanising bastard of a bloke. Come to think of it i wouldnt swap the memories of it all for quids. If i can turn my life about from that young Shrewdy will have no problems. Macdunk

  9. #1309
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shrewd Crude View Post
    mackdunk,

    I did not have a full time job as I just graduated last week...
    Likewise SC, congrats on your graduation. And thanks for starting the thread. Nothing like a bit of cheerful banter to help pass the day.

  10. #1310
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick100 View Post
    You should really be comparing yourself with your peers rather than the likes of macdunk and minimoke
    There’s no value in trying to make a comparison. Hopefully he’ll have his own aspirations and go for it without the distraction of making comparisons which breeds envy and disappointment. And how do you compare – Macdunk debt free – me, intending to be in debt on my death bed. Different roads but all fun along the way.

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