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  1. #1311
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    Upside, buddy, let's both watch and learn. 2008 has been a masterclass I can't see straight anymore. Like any 'investor' I've got a vested interest, you've got a vested interest in house prices dropping 30% and I've got a vested interest in them not falling that far, only because I think house prices dropping that much would be terrible for the economy, and I ask what use will buying a house be, when you don't have job?

    Shrewd well done on your graduation!

    Mr D.

  2. #1312
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    I have also said 30% would be terrible for the economy and the financial system...flick back a few pages.

    30% in real terms may not be that bad if it occurs over 5 or so years and inflation takes a little bit and so does nominal.

    Of course, I too have a vested interest...but I don't have a job, have one lined up though. I have one more year to do honours in finance and then will be actively seeking out bargains. I have got a reasonable deposit which by the end of next year should hit up 20% if i dont bugger it up!

    But your right, we are both watching and learning....I'm no dooms dayer, I have been 100% in the market this year until Friday but it seems such a given to wait a little while yet.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  3. #1313
    slow learner
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    Nov 2007
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    I have a vested interest too, been out of the market for about a year and will be for another one before I get back in.

    Go Bernard Go!!!

    Mega trend video on housing

    http://www.interest.co.nz/

  4. #1314
    Legend
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    Apr 2008
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    Sth Island. New Zealand.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Financially dependant View Post
    I have a vested interest too, been out of the market for about a year and will be for another one before I get back in.

    Go Bernard Go!!!

    Mega trend video on housing

    http://www.interest.co.nz/

    I reckon he's pretty close with his predictions. I'd say you should wait at least a year before you even start looking - just in case you see one you can't resist.

  5. #1315
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    mackdunk,SHREWDY, I have reached the happy position in life of not having bank loans or owe money on anything. I only speak of the road that got me here. You may wish to travel a different route to this destination i only give you the benefit of my experience getting here.
    All the people that i know that were self made, and well off did it with property. Some had menial task jobs with low incomes, but still managed to get there.
    Share market crashes, property only downtrends, then gets back up to steeper uptrends.
    I think that 2008 will make you a much wiser investor on the share market, i only hope you wake up to how easy it is to make it with property. Have a happy xmas congrats on your graduation and whatever you do dont get stuck playing with one commodoty in this crazy market. Macdunk
    To be blatently honest, You are a hypocrite mackdunk...
    You say one thing and then do another...
    your share trading comes with such strict systems and rules, then you go and blow it all on housing...
    You have openly said you will sell Nuclear weapons to the Iranians if theres money to be made from it...
    Then you say yourve been there done that wanting to preserve your wealth... what do you really want?

    and then you call us all dumb chooks... brain dead...
    dumb shiits for losing money to the markets, when you have done exactly the same thing with your fixed loan terms..... I was rampantly against your brain dead mutilation idea...

    I am quickly becoming an old man trying to knock sense into you mackdunk...
    I am becoming an old man debating with you...

    I dont have to take your path... I may decide to take the easy road and get into housing in a big way, but then what a boring life that would be...
    I want excitement....
    its not about money..... well maybe it is...
    its more important the path to making that money...
    If your not happy, then why take a boring path...

    mackdunk->Go to the NZO thread and give it up to them...
    they have out done both you and I....
    Dont make them feel bad....
    address the people you are referring to....
    Im tired of this....
    apologise to the NZO thread...

    .^sc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  6. #1316
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    its so true though mackdunk...
    In life you will do things you enjoy...
    And right now im not enjoying online posting.....
    so I have stood back....
    You try and make us all feel bad, when you are just as deep as us with your fixed term higher interest rates which effectively transferred your (potential) losses from the share market to (real) higher banking costs...
    Im over it... I dont want to compete and beat you again in our yearly competition if you are going to give me this crap all year long about what it is you do in real life, and all that...

    well... actually I will still compete against you...
    because I can win easy...
    But I promise I wont be so buoyant, and bubbly...
    it will be business as usual...
    make your pick on the 1st trading day of 2009... thanks....

    .^sc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  7. #1317
    Advanced Member
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    Talking Great fishing up here caught some beauties

    SHREWDY, You are on the wrong thread to have a go at me about competitions. The reason you have gone off posting is your ideas about investing are all going bad. Rather than get upset learn from your mistakes. First mistake was sticking to one commodoty because when it goes bad you have nothing left. Second mistake was sticking half your funds into a company with such low volatility you cant get out of it in a hurry. Third mistake was riding the sp down from 21.5c to 10.5c without a stop loss.
    I have never lost one cent on property ever. Most of the time i made over 10% pa using the banks money not mine. I tried to show you how to do it but you know best.
    You have argued all this year about me staying out the market then gleefully say how you beat me with a minus 50% or whatever with a win when it was only you in the market.
    The reality of property investing is what you should study.
    The interest rate must be locked in at a manageable level even if it requires you to sometimes lock in a higher rate. That is the one thing that keeps you out the bankrupsy court. I have warned people all year about this crash and definately not dumb enough to be caught in it. Macdunk

  8. #1318
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    Property investments should always be viewed as long term due to the illiquid nature. Unlike the sharemarket it is hard to sell a property on a downturning market quickly.

    I cashed up about 3 years back and now slowly getting back into the property market again. Who knows how low it will go or when it will bottom. Those that think they can pick the bottom are either fooling themselves or have a crystal ball that can also predict lotto ticket numbers.

    I ve been in the property investment game for a long time. As long as the numbers work for you and you are comfortable with it then it is a good investment. For good tenants buy in a good area.

    ps: why is this forum so quite? Dont you guys have internet at your bach?
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 24-12-2008 at 08:34 AM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  9. #1319
    Advanced Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    Property investments should always be viewed as long term due to the illiquid nature. Unlike the sharemarket it is hard to sell a property on a downturning market quickly.

    ps: why is this forum so quite? Dont you guys have internet at your bach?
    Doc all the threads have gone quiet which is very easy to explain, Its like gamblers raving on about winning then going quiet when they are losing. Property requires great uptrends followed by great corrections otherwise its not worth the effort. Property is the simple mans way to riches unlike the share market where only the astute survive. To tell someone caught up in the hype of an uptrending market that its all about to turn to custard is not the way to win the popularity stakes. Even my mate SHREWDY has gone off posting simply because he got it wrong by buying at the top and riding the market down and is in a state of silent depression. When you take all the ups and downs over the years property gains on average about 10%. When you take the average rate of borrowing at 8% less rent plus expences you dont need a college education to understand how to make it work. Macdunk

  10. #1320
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    Property investments should always be viewed as long term due to the illiquid nature. Unlike the sharemarket it is hard to sell a property on a downturning market quickly.

    I cashed up about 3 years back and now slowly getting back into the property market again. Who knows how low it will go or when it will bottom. Those that think they can pick the bottom are either fooling themselves or have a crystal ball that can also predict lotto ticket numbers.

    I ve been in the property investment game for a long time. As long as the numbers work for you and you are comfortable with it then it is a good investment. For good tenants buy in a good area.

    ps: why is this forum so quite? Dont you guys have internet at your bach?

    Sure its illiquid, but that doesn't mean your timing should be sacrificed. The sharemarket is very volatile, so I'd beg to differ and suggest its easier to pick the bottom of the housing market than the stock market. I'm pretty sure you have said the market has bottomed a few times doc. You have also said your in every industry out there by most of your comments. 'Ill be going long on oil if it goes below $100...' Didnt see you disclosing that you have?

    I believe we've got a couple years to go in this downturn of the market, and it was suprising to see you all of a sudden switch to being a housing bull from a bear within a matter of months. Your only reason for change seemed to be interest rates were coming down...what about unemployment? what about migration? what about flows of foreign capital? the list is endless...all that i have mentioned in the 'bear' phase for housing and the only thing going right is the OCR. But again, thats not going to flow through to mortgage borrowers like everyone thinks it will. FED target rate 0.25 and their 1 year ARM mortgages still hovering around 6%! You guys are dreaming thinking a lower OCR will give confidence for people to buy into the market....job security is number one.

    Good that you have been in the market a long time, and you obviously have the equity to take a few hits. First home buyers/potential investors Dont. A 20% drop in house prices will seriously affect first home buyers to do anything involving significant financial commitment in the future. So timing to first home buyers IMO is everything...

    Forum quiet? Busier than most...

    Oh MacDunk, you have this once fundamental principle you go by. "Never swim against the tide..." seems like your swimming against the tide!
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

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