NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[minimoke]

So, can we take it that neither Serpie or Lakedameon have taken a loss on their recent house sales?

As for my neighbourhood, there are lots of “sold” signs up but I haven’t checked the sale prices yet and not so many for sale signs around.

And Pegasus Town – I’m not sure they have dug the heavy equipment that got lost in the sand out yet. I wasn’t in the least bit tempted to buy when this town went to market and I’m less inclined now. I’m picking another “Rolleston” – 20 years before we see anything substantial. But in the meantime buyers will take a hit on their land purchase on resale and covenants will get slackened.

[arco]

Residential sections often fall further than expected in my experience,
but they have been good over a long term if you can hold.

Napier 1996 section $27000, sold 2006 $187k.


House prices - how far will they fall?

Tuesday Jan 06, 2009


By Anne Gibson


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...0550607&pnum=0

[Serpie]

So, can we take it that neither Serpie or Lakedameon have taken a loss on their recent house sales?

We bought ours as investment properties before the market went silly (8-9 years ago), so have made good money. Not as much as we would've if we'd sold a year ago, but the glass is still 90% full.

And we're looking at houses to live in that would've been out of our reach a year ago, so maybe the glass is completely full!

I think you've raised a fair point about the convenents at Pegasus Town MM. Once they relax the standards out there then it's all over.

[The GrandMaster]

No – the pros and cons of renting vs owning have already been well canvassed. If you have missed them there are very good arguments for renting as a home option – but Shrewdys thread was about owning your first home. What I didn’t mention was his rental situation – which as I recall in one post was a cold draughty place which wasn’t helping his health. Perhaps he has moved. Either way he would still have been better off buying a $330k house in Jan 07 with a 100% loan at 9.5% rather than leaving it till Nov 07 when his house would cost $352k at 10.4%

My mistake, I thought you mentioned it being the 2 year anniversary since his initial post and was just comparing that.

Regardless, even in the example above he would have been better off by c$13k by delaying until the Nov07 purchase. Even using the higher house price and interest rate you quote, it would take over 2yrs for him to come back to evens.

Either way, he didn't do either, and is better off for it.

[Dr_Who]

I dont know what you doomsayers are on about, maybe I am deaf and blind. I have been buying property lately and will buy more when and if I see a bargain. As long as the numbers are right, I am in with a grin.

Those of you that think you can pick the bottom must be a guru and/or have a crystal ball. And yeah, all those so call experts writing in the papers got the last cycle wrong so why would they get this cycle right?

[Serpie]

Dr,
I was talking to my agent about one this morning which sounded promising. I was thinking about having a look at it myself, but my wife would kill me if I started buying again.

PM me if you're interested and I'll give you the details. No promises about whether or not it's for you, but you may want to have a look.

[lakedaemonian]

So, can we take it that neither Serpie or Lakedameon have taken a loss on their recent house sales?

As for my neighbourhood, there are lots of “sold” signs up but I haven’t checked the sale prices yet and not so many for sale signs around.

And Pegasus Town – I’m not sure they have dug the heavy equipment that got lost in the sand out yet. I wasn’t in the least bit tempted to buy when this town went to market and I’m less inclined now. I’m picking another “Rolleston” – 20 years before we see anything substantial. But in the meantime buyers will take a hit on their land purchase on resale and covenants will get slackened.

We made a VERY tidy capital gain on the house we sold! Hence our selling it for a fair price...we're not too greedy, especially since we got such a screaming good deal on our new home a number of months ago.

As far as Pegasus Town goes in no way am I implying anyone should invest their hard earned money there, quite the opposite.

I'm of the believe that it is about the LAST place I would invest capital at the moment.

To be blunt, I think it might be a nice place to live in 10-15 years time.......but the next couple of years there are probably going to suck.


Just my 0.02c

[minimoke]

We made a VERY tidy capital gain on the house we sold! Hence our selling it for a fair price...we're not too greedy, especially since we got such a screaming good deal on our new home a number of months ago.

As far as Pegasus Town goes in no way am I implying anyone should invest their hard earned money there, quite the opposite.

I'm of the believe that it is about the LAST place I would invest capital at the moment.

To be blunt, I think it might be a nice place to live in 10-15 years time.......but the next couple of years there are probably going to suck.


Just my 0.02c

Now don’t yours and Serpies posts make much more positive reading than the dross regurgitated by the media who just love gloom and doom (or over hyped greed). What do the media now want? – us to feel sorry for the poor mugs that paid top dollar for a property they didn’t really want but thought they could make a quick buck or two.



I’m just waiting for the next instalment of sob stories from those that have bought into places like Pegasus Town – they’ll be the people, or siblings of people, that no doubt bought dodgy time-shares 20 years ago and didn’t learn but then went on to invest in that nice finance company fronted by some respectable ex rugby player or news reader – only to be blown away by a $2m scaled model created by artisans and promises of secluded lagoons and sunken ships for the enthusiastic diver. All built on sand dunes and swamp.!

[Financially dependant]

This guy just does not give up with his B.S spin!

From Interest.co.nz......but a good reply at the bottom.


Auckland’s largest real estate agents Barfoot and Thompson reported a 4.7% decline in their average sale price over 2008, and a 40% decline in average sales per month, compared to 2007.

Barfoot’s average number of sales per month in 2008 fell to 547 from 915 in 2007, while its average sale price fell to NZ$513,597.

“This is a really good result, given all the dire predictions that have been tossed around,” Managing Director Peter Thompson said about the 4.7% average price fall.

“This should also help lend confidence to the market and reassure both vendors and prospective buyers.”

For the week ended December 19, 2008, Thompson said Barfoots recorded 227 sales, compared to a weekly average over the year of 171. Its average sale price in December rose 1.7% from November, up to NZ$509,513.

“We’ve certainly seen an improvement in the market since the Reserve Bank’s most recent move. It seems to have tipped the balance in terms of converting interested parties into committed buyers,” Thompson said.

The average weekly rent over 2008 for Barfoot’s property management division was NZ$388, compared to an average of NZ$370 in 2007.

1. andy hamilton Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:06 pm

There is more than the usual spin going on.

Note the use of the whole year comparison, and the avoidance of a comparison with average value in Dec 2007 (a year on year comparison which has typically been given in their previous missives). Want to know why?

Because Dec 2007 value was $559,803 versus 2008’s December value of $509,513 - ie a $50,000 difference, a 10% fall.

I am suprised you missed that one Alex.

As regards the use of the annualised figure - mine the data a little deeper and you get this:

Average value 1st half 2007: $528,566
Average value 2nd half 2007: $548,391 (ie the peak)
Average value 1st half 2008: $519,195
Average value 2nd half 2008: $509,513

[Yossarian]

Now don’t yours and Serpies posts make much more positive reading than the dross regurgitated by the media who just love gloom and doom (or over hyped greed). What do the media now want? – us to feel sorry for the poor mugs that paid top dollar for a property they didn’t really want but thought they could make a quick buck or two.



I’m just waiting for the next instalment of sob stories from those that have bought into places like Pegasus Town – they’ll be the people, or siblings of people, that no doubt bought dodgy time-shares 20 years ago and didn’t learn but then went on to invest in that nice finance company fronted by some respectable ex rugby player or news reader – only to be blown away by a $2m scaled model created by artisans and promises of secluded lagoons and sunken ships for the enthusiastic diver. All built on sand dunes and swamp.!

I had a drive around Pegasus in the holidays. Boy, what a depressing place. I agree - it will be the next Rolleston. Even when it's complete I would not live there. It feels like a massive version of Dannemora in Auckland (apologies to any residents of that suburb).

And do you know, there is only one way in - one lane each way for 8000 to 10000 residents!!! Talk about a traffic jam! And the main road runs right through the golf course... what the hell?