NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Dr_Who]

It would be interesting to see what happens when OCR hits 4%.

I am confident OCR will hit 3% this year.

[upside_umop]

We’ve done the renting vs home ownership elsewhere and as I have previously said there are certainly merits to renting. But what we can’t do is compare renting 1 bedroom at $100 a week with owning a home.

How is that any different when your merits are based on renting out the rest of the rooms? I believe you have less worries/responsibilities renting.

As for shrewdy and myself...its paid off as we're both students.

Interesting how dr? Most banks have already priced in the cuts....you wont see mortgage rates below 5% but you will see unemployment rise markedly. 7.5% by 2011 according to treasury...no immediate housing rebound on the cards IMO.

[MrDevine]

Upside, you're in a great position as a student to take advantage of a falling market when (if) you get a job. Keep saving and you'll find yourself a cracker first home or investment property.

Who says bank interest rates won't get to -5%? If the OCR goes to 2.5% then there is every chance. 3 month LIBOR is now down to 1.15% and collapsing under billions of dollars of guaranteed liquidity.

[Dr_Who]

Upsidedown Mop, you young grasshoppers have a lot to learn.

I ve been through two market crashes and have invested and managed more property portfolios than you ve had hot meals.

Everything goes in cycles and with properties it is usually a long term investments. The so called "experts" got the timing wrong the last time and they are gonna get it wrong this time. NZers will always love properties, cos they dont trusts the sharemarket.

Once the OCR gets to a certain level, it will be game on again.

[Crypto Crude]

Upsidedown Mop, you young grasshoppers have a lot to learn.

young grasshoppers...
hahahaha.....
these young G hoppers outsmarted all the 'businessmen housing buffs'...
and continue to defy them today, continue to be proven right on a daily basis, and continue being told that the business buffs were right all along....
they wont admit there fault...

Housing is still falling... interest rates are going to come down further...
buying now is for dead ducks... and it aint even duck hunting season...
ka pow....
Umop is a very lucky, talented individual to think on his own two feet, and to be in the best position in life......
We have both landed great jobs...
im off to China...

.^sc

[upside_umop]

Upside, you're in a great position as a student to take advantage of a falling market when (if) you get a job. Keep saving and you'll find yourself a cracker first home or investment property.

Who says bank interest rates won't get to -5%? If the OCR goes to 2.5% then there is every chance. 3 month LIBOR is now down to 1.15% and collapsing under billions of dollars of guaranteed liquidity.

Yeah thats the thing about jobs...I've got one secured coming out as a graduate in 2010...At this stage going for the investment property...makes more economic sense to me. Worry about the 'home' later

If OCR gets to 2.5%, wouldnt necessarily see rates come below 5%. Most banks now have priced in a cut in OCR to 4% but yet are still up above 7% for any length of time (3,4,5,7 year mortgages). It could be possible to see the 6 month and 1 year under 5% but not for any fixed amount of time. Because if houses stabilize, and economic growth picks up and so will inflation expectations ----> higher expected forward rates. I'd like to see a 6% 5 year rate...that would definitely catch my attention! Whats NZ's equivalent to LIBOR like? I cant remember its name....

But yeah, all in all, I feel reasonably fortunate to be coming into a situation where there will be good opportunities and to take advantage of some as they arise, whether that be in 2010, 11 or 12...maybe I'll try do the 'house a year' like some property guru does!

[upside_umop]

Upsidedown Mop, you young grasshoppers have a lot to learn.

I ve been through two market crashes and have invested and managed more property portfolios than you ve had hot meals.

Everything goes in cycles and with properties it is usually a long term investments. The so called "experts" got the timing wrong the last time and they are gonna get it wrong this time. NZers will always love properties, cos they dont trusts the sharemarket.

Once the OCR gets to a certain level, it will be game on again.

You always talk about 'housing experts' but yet you implicitly proclaim to be one yourself?

Maybe NZers wont trust houses after this is done with.

As for the OCR...1 year ago you would have said the same thing, and your level would have been 5% in your dreams. Now we're talking 2.5% bottom and no positive spin.

Unemployment will rise markedly but may be saved at the expense govt deficit blowouts as a political move...I'd rather see unemployment rise a bit to 'let the market work it out'...

[MrDevine]

I reckon we should tie this thread up. What we have is a couple of young bucks with a lot of confidence, and good on you two (shrewd and upside). However bowling out of University you guys have no idea of the 'real world' I know because I was just like you about 6 years ago.

It would pay to respect the opinions of older posters and learn from them. This downturn is no different to any other.

Umop your comment about liking to see unemployment rise 'to let the market work it out' shows an arrogance which you'll lose quite quickly once you leave university. High unemployment causes all sorts of social problems that no one needs.

Good Luck.

BTW upside what sector are you moving into in 2009?

[Dr_Who]

You always talk about 'housing experts' but yet you implicitly proclaim to be one yourself?

Ive never claimed at any stage I was an expert.

I am a property investor myself and cashed up 2-3 years back. I have started buying again, always on the look out for more under valued properties to buy. I started buying properties again late last year with a long term view. Unlike a few people, I do not pretend to know everything and I am not a fortune teller so I cant predict the bottom of the market.

From my previous experiences, I know for certain that property goes in cycles and experts and analysts always gets the timing wrong. I am only voicing my opinion based on my previous experiences.

In a down trending market you can always negotiate a fantastic price, esp with cash unconditional offers. In a up trending market it is much harder to negotiate a good price.

Good luck to you Upside. If you are right and the market has not bottomed, then it is an opportunity for me to buy more at a cheaper price. Nothing stays cheap for ever.


ps: Shrewdy.. watch out for the girls from Shanghai, they will chew you up alive.

[Crypto Crude]

It would pay to respect the opinions of older posters and learn from them. This downturn is no different to any other.

sorry if I offended anyone...

but,
calling some posters old is just plain discrimination?
these buffs come across as young bucks at heart anyway...
enthusiastic... outgoing.... successful...
mackdunks a young wipper snapper at heart...
these oldies would run circles around our generation...
give it up to us for calling the situation right all along, even when we were tested when we were out of our depths...
housing falls have only just begun...
peace out...

.^sc