NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[minimoke]

Lots of the one's I have been watching over the years have dropped 30+%,as have said before depends where your looking,but then you guys just look at what suits what your saying.

Cheers
miner

QV says values are moving up, REINZ says values are moving up, Bollard reckons values are moving up, Bernard (I'm a Property Guru) Hickey reckons it will now only be 15% fall, Tony Alexander reckons prices are moving up, Mike Pero reckons its moving up, Treasury reckons its moving up; the Minister of housing is encouraging state tennants into ownership, - who've I missed? My views are already well canvassed on these threads.

[miner]

Sure in some areas they may be now mini but it still doesnt change the fact that I have watched some drop 30 odd %,and you preaching on that they didnt wont change that,you guys are in love with property and as the old saying goes "love is blind".

I have made money on property before and will again but the last few years where I am have not been the time to buy as all they have been doing is sitting there not selling and dropping in price or selling for allot less than in the hyped boom.

Interesting how you guys keep denying what I have seen and showed you examples of,waste of time so leave you to it again.

Cheers
miner

[minimoke]

but it still doesnt change the fact that I have watched some drop 30 odd %,

Miner - I'm not disputing your observations - you know best what it is you are seeing. However I respectfully suggest the sample of your observations is less than that used by QV, REINZ et al. Consequently your sample size doesn't have the same validity as the other data. Useful as it is at a micro level it doesn't reflect what is happening at a macro level. At a micro level I can prove anything I like. I might assert Red coloured houses have increased (or decreased) in value 900% by observing red houses but this doesn't add a view of the housing market as a whole.

All macro evidence points to an improving property market. There is no evidence that the market has fallen 30%. There is evidence that properties you have observed have fallen by 30%

[Kees]

I am with you Miner I have been keeping a keen interest on comercial property and the
amount of emty buildings is increasing prices are dropping but until interest rates rise
I think property will keep tanking.
I am certainly not interest to invest until I can get a decent return ,good long term lease and no worries about the tenant until then the dough can stay were it is.

[wns]

I can't comment on NZ, but on average, house prices rose here in Australia by 2% last month.

Here's an article from The Australian newspaper the other day...

Reserve Bank warns of housing market bubble risk

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-36418,00.html


I don't really mind too much if housing prices go up or down.
If prices go up, my wealth goes up.
If prices go down, then I may get to purchase another investment property at a decent yield.

[minimoke]

I am with you Miner I have been keeping a keen interest on comercial property and the
amount of emty buildings is increasing prices are dropping but until interest rates rise
I think property will keep tanking.
I am certainly not interest to invest until I can get a decent return ,good long term lease and no worries about the tenant until then the dough can stay were it is.

I'm not sure we can compare comercial property with First Home property on this thread - perhaps time for a thread on Commercial property.

[Ptolemy]

[QUOTE=Dr_Who;275618]Anyone else here still think the property market will fall 30-40% and will not go back up for another 3-4 years?
QUOTE]

I don't think we see real drops of 30% but I do think nominal drops are likely of 30% over the next 5-10% years. House prices will revert to trend. i.e flat, slight drops, small rises year by year but essentially flat for the next decade.

I know many of you guys think that house prices at these levels now are the new norm and we are about to witness another boom but frankly I can't see the ingredients to start another boom. Interest rates rising, unemployment rising, fragile recovery at best being driven by housing not exports and manufacturing. Supply is up strongly in September - it will be interesting see if it is enough to meet the "pent up demand" that the RE industry continually roll out.

We'll see.

[minimoke]

[quote=Ptolemy;275795]

A

I know many of you guys think that house prices at these levels now are the new norm and we are about to witness another boom

I'm not sure there are many here (any?) picking a new boom in property. I for one aren't. I could never see a 30% drop in value as the experts were predicting - and we are now seeing how valid those predicitons were.

[loofa]

The present market is an unrealistic one to decide whether prices are moving and which way.
My contacts suggest that the median price is affected by the type of property which is selling. Hopefully there will be some stabilisation within a year but the important thing is that ability to save will be important in a wavy market and now there is no hurry to buy (or to sell for that matter)
It may all be decided for us if the overseas investors slow down the available cash at cheap rates.
Who knows?

[minimoke]

T..the important thing is that ability to save will be important in a wavy market .

And theres a challenge. Put your money in the bank for a 5% gross return. Put your money into Finance Companies for more than 2 years for a ?? return. And there is teh stock market of course. Or you could put your money into property which has seen a 6.7% net increase in median value so far this year.